Value betting, a new approach

Do you feel lucky? Tell me! Do you feel lucky?

If the answer is yes, you can play Lotto, Keno, Joker, or you can place a bet. But beware, only ONE bet, if you are counting on luck.

If you want to place more bets in the long run, luck does not play a significant role, betting is a game of patience and ability. To gain profit, through time, the only thing you need is to make better estimates than the betting companies. Every reasonable person may wonder how. How can a simple betting player estimate the odds better than the giants who possess unlimited resources and the most capable human resources?

This is a hard task, but not an impossible one. Many punters try to predict value bets by using the “famous”, in the gambling world, Poisson distribution. Well, it’s not working, at least efficiently. Maybe it can be used as a tool to estimate value existence in a game but rarely produces viable results, mainly because it can’t “see” the non-linear nature of football games. Any form of distribution can not predict the following percentages.


First, we must see the football divisions we care to bet on as autonomous entities. There are big differences between England League One and Bundesliga, for example, so I like to use a fresh approach to estimate the fair price of football outcomes.

Initially, I calculate a set of variables (predictors) for every game based on past results, special characteristics of every football division, etc.

Then for every predictor (there are 13 of them) and for every division I pick optimized expected goals equations to predict the percentage of a team, to score a specific number of goals in a specific game. These calculations take place for the home and guest team for every game.

These percentages are not in a distribution form. I’m sure you can remember a lot of games expected to end with 0-1 goals based on Poisson predictions and end with a score like 3-3 or 5-2, etc. The expected goals equations can represent this kind of behavior, unlike distribution-like or linear type predictions.

There is no automated system to make you rich, your participation is essential in every decision, BUT with this method, you can have a credible assessment of every aspect of a football game.

You can see how the fair odds “move” on various scenarios in a single game. In my new book “MATH to WIN: Football” I present the optimized equations for every division, I explain how to build game scenarios and how to apply educated reasoning with the help of tens real-life examples. The book “MATH to WIN: Football”  will be available in the Amazon bookstore soon, and it will open your PATH to WIN in football betting.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *