2020 10 27 Championship (England)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Blackburn vs Reading at 27 October 2020
Middlesbrough vs Coventry at 27 October 2020
Wycombe vs Watford at 27 October 2020
Birmingham vs Huddersfield at 28 October 2020
Bournemouth vs Bristol City at 28 October 2020
Derby vs Cardiff at 28 October 2020
Luton vs Nott’m Forest at 28 October 2020
Rotherham vs Sheffield Weds at 28 October 2020


Blackburn vs Reading

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackburn and Reading for Championship (England), which will take place at 27 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackburn

2.02

2.62

-11.3

Draw

3.36

3.69

-2.7

Reading

3.84

2.88

8.7

Over 2.5

2.07

2.21

-3.1

Under 2.5

1.76

1.83

-2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reading (8.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.16 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.86. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Blackburn and the red line for guest team, Reading.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackburn

34%

33%

14%

20%

Reading

39%

24%

21%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.46 goals and Reading to score 0.92 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.19 goals and Reading to score 1.11 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

13.2%

0-1

34.3%

1

21.1%

2-3

43.6%

2

20.4%

4+

22.0%

3

23.2%

Ov 1.5

65.6%

4

12.7%

Un 1.5

34.3%

5

6.3%

Ov 2.5

45.2%

6+

3.0%

Un 2.5

54.7%

Gg

40.2%

Ov 3.5

22.0%

NoG

59.7%

Un 3.5

77.9%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

2.60

4.29

2-3 goals

2.69

5.52

2.24

4+ goals

2.47

3.73

3.06

Ov 1.5

2.61

4.75

2.46

Un 1.5

2.62

2.60

4.29

Ov 2.5

2.28

7.66

2.32

Un 2.5

2.97

2.59

3.60

Ov 3.5

2.47

3.73

3.06

Un 3.5

2.66

3.69

2.83

Goal-Goal

3.32

2.91

2.81

No Goal

2.29

4.52

2.93

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.67

5.47

2.26

NG+Un 2.5

2.54

4.52

3.08


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Middlesbrough vs Coventry

In this section we will analyze the game between Middlesbrough and Coventry for Championship (England), which will take place at 27 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Middlesbrough

1.91

1.72

5.8

Draw

3.32

4.15

-6.0

Coventry

4.39

5.59

-4.9

Over 2.5

2.21

2.02

4.3

Under 2.5

1.67

1.98

-9.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Middlesbrough, Over 2.5 (5.8 %, 4.3 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.98 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.02. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Middlesbrough and the red line for guest team, Coventry.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Middlesbrough

16%

31%

28%

26%

Coventry

40%

40%

13%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.45 goals and Coventry to score 0.82 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.63 goals and Coventry to score 0.62 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 1.01 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

6.3%

0-1

25.0%

1

18.7%

2-3

51.8%

2

25.5%

4+

23.2%

3

26.3%

Ov 1.5

75.0%

4

16.0%

Un 1.5

25.0%

5

5.4%

Ov 2.5

49.5%

6+

1.8%

Un 2.5

50.5%

Gg

50.7%

Ov 3.5

23.2%

NoG

49.3%

Un 3.5

76.8%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.02

3.97

3.97

2-3 goals

1.61

4.18

7.10

4+ goals

1.72

4.22

5.52

Ov 1.5

1.64

4.19

6.52

Un 1.5

2.02

3.97

3.97

Ov 2.5

1.43

9.00

5.27

Un 2.5

2.16

2.70

6.01

Ov 3.5

1.72

4.22

5.52

Un 3.5

1.73

4.11

5.65

Goal-Goal

2.07

2.83

6.11

No Goal

1.47

7.83

5.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.56

6.96

4.61

NG+Un 2.5

1.63

7.83

4.54


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Wycombe vs Watford

In this section we will analyze the game between Wycombe and Watford for Championship (England), which will take place at 27 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wycombe

7.45

2.83

21.9

Draw

3.91

3.80

0.7

Watford

1.51

2.60

-27.8

Over 2.5

2.11

2.00

2.6

Under 2.5

1.73

2.00

-7.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe, Draw, Over 2.5 (21.9 %, 0.7 %, 2.6 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.96 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.04. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Wycombe and the red line for guest team, Watford.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wycombe

47%

1%

36%

16%

Watford

36%

26%

15%

23%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 0.58 goals and Watford to score 1.76 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the guest team Wycombe to win by 1.18 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.21 goals and Watford to score 1.12 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

17.1%

0-1

29.8%

1

12.7%

2-3

46.2%

2

20.1%

4+

23.9%

3

26.1%

Ov 1.5

70.1%

4

9.8%

Un 1.5

29.8%

5

10.5%

Ov 2.5

50.0%

6+

3.6%

Un 2.5

49.9%

Gg

33.7%

Ov 3.5

23.9%

NoG

66.2%

Un 3.5

76.0%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

99.33

1.74

2.40

2-3 goals

1.63

231.00

2.62

4+ goals

3.57

2.69

2.88

Ov 1.5

2.00

7.70

2.71

Un 1.5

99.33

1.74

2.40

Ov 2.5

2.26

5.62

2.63

Un 2.5

3.75

2.88

2.59

Ov 3.5

3.57

2.69

2.88

Un 3.5

2.65

4.39

2.53

Goal-Goal

2.08

3.70

4.01

No Goal

3.45

3.87

2.21

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

3.76

3.99

NG+Un 2.5

3.74

3.87

2.58


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!