2020 10 27 League One (England)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool at 27 October 2020
Bristol Rvs vs Hull at 27 October 2020
Charlton vs Oxford at 27 October 2020
Crewe vs Lincoln at 27 October 2020
Fleetwood Town vs Shrewsbury at 27 October 2020
Peterboro vs Burton at 27 October 2020
Plymouth vs Doncaster at 27 October 2020
Portsmouth vs Northampton at 27 October 2020
Rochdale vs Sunderland at 27 October 2020


AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool

In this section we will analyze the game between AFC Wimbledon and Blackpool for League One (England), which will take place at 27 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

AFC Wimbledon

3.27

2.16

15.7

Draw

3.16

3.75

-5.0

Blackpool

2.27

3.72

-17.2

Over 2.5

2.19

2.11

1.7

Under 2.5

1.66

1.90

-7.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at AFC Wimbledon, Over 2.5 (15.7 %, 1.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.11 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.9. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, AFC Wimbledon and the red line for guest team, Blackpool.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

AFC Wimbledon

21%

35%

26%

18%

Blackpool

35%

36%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 0.99 goals and Blackpool to score 1.28 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 1.4 goals and Blackpool to score 0.89 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team AFC Wimbledon to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.5%

0-1

27.1%

1

19.6%

2-3

50.0%

2

25.5%

4+

22.9%

3

24.5%

Ov 1.5

72.9%

4

15.0%

Un 1.5

27.1%

5

6.1%

Ov 2.5

47.4%

6+

1.8%

Un 2.5

52.6%

Gg

51.2%

Ov 3.5

22.9%

NoG

48.8%

Un 3.5

77.1%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.26

3.61

3.57

2-3 goals

2.04

4.07

3.79

4+ goals

2.31

3.32

3.75

Ov 1.5

2.12

3.80

3.78

Un 1.5

2.26

3.61

3.57

Ov 2.5

1.87

6.87

3.14

Un 2.5

2.50

2.66

4.46

Ov 3.5

2.31

3.32

3.75

Un 3.5

2.11

3.89

3.71

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.67

3.97

No Goal

1.79

6.51

3.49

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

5.64

3.02

NG+Un 2.5

1.92

6.51

3.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Bristol Rvs vs Hull

In this section we will analyze the game between Bristol Rvs and Hull for League One (England), which will take place at 27 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bristol Rvs

3.71

2.95

6.9

Draw

3.26

4.00

-5.7

Hull

2.06

2.43

-7.4

Over 2.5

2.04

1.86

4.7

Under 2.5

1.76

2.16

-10.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol Rvs, Over 2.5 (6.9 %, 4.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.86 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.16. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Bristol Rvs and the red line for guest team, Hull.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bristol Rvs

33%

24%

25%

18%

Hull

21%

38%

22%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bristol Rvs to score 0.95 goals and Hull to score 1.44 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the guest team Bristol Rvs to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bristol Rvs to score 1.27 goals and Hull to score 1.25 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

6.9%

0-1

24.4%

1

17.5%

2-3

46.7%

2

21.8%

4+

29.0%

3

24.9%

Ov 1.5

75.7%

4

16.9%

Un 1.5

24.4%

5

8.7%

Ov 2.5

53.9%

6+

3.4%

Un 2.5

46.2%

Gg

53.1%

Ov 3.5

29.0%

NoG

47.0%

Un 3.5

71.1%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.78

3.54

1.97

2-3 goals

2.55

5.08

2.43

4+ goals

2.76

3.22

3.05

Ov 1.5

2.63

4.16

2.64

Un 1.5

4.78

3.54

1.97

Ov 2.5

2.28

5.99

2.53

Un 2.5

4.49

2.87

2.33

Ov 3.5

2.76

3.22

3.05

Un 3.5

3.04

4.42

2.25

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.92

3.56

No Goal

3.38

6.81

1.79

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.19

4.88

2.95

NG+Un 2.5

3.59

6.81

1.87


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Charlton vs Oxford

In this section we will analyze the game between Charlton and Oxford for League One (England), which will take place at 27 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Charlton

2.49

1.88

13.0

Draw

3.30

3.94

-4.9

Oxford

2.80

4.65

-14.2

Over 2.5

1.99

2.12

-3.1

Under 2.5

1.81

1.89

-2.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Charlton (13 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.12 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.89. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Charlton and the red line for guest team, Oxford.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Charlton

16%

36%

28%

20%

Oxford

40%

35%

15%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.27 goals and Oxford to score 1.17 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.51 goals and Oxford to score 0.75 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Charlton to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

6.6%

0-1

26.5%

1

19.9%

2-3

51.3%

2

26.4%

4+

22.3%

3

24.9%

Ov 1.5

73.6%

4

14.7%

Un 1.5

26.5%

5

5.7%

Ov 2.5

47.2%

6+

1.9%

Un 2.5

52.9%

Gg

50.4%

Ov 3.5

22.3%

NoG

49.7%

Un 3.5

77.8%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.88

4.02

4.57

2-3 goals

1.77

4.07

5.29

4+ goals

2.25

3.54

3.66

Ov 1.5

1.89

3.89

4.66

Un 1.5

1.88

4.02

4.57

Ov 2.5

1.70

7.49

3.58

Un 2.5

2.09

2.76

6.30

Ov 3.5

2.25

3.54

3.66

Un 3.5

1.81

4.05

5.02

Goal-Goal

2.53

2.67

4.34

No Goal

1.50

7.53

4.97

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.90

6.00

3.26

NG+Un 2.5

1.59

7.53

4.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!