2020 10 27 League Two (England)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Forest Green vs Grimsby at 27 October 2020
Harrogate vs Stevenage at 27 October 2020
Port Vale vs Cheltenham at 27 October 2020
Southend vs Oldham at 27 October 2020


Forest Green vs Grimsby

In this section we will analyze the game between Forest Green and Grimsby for League Two (England), which will take place at 27 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Forest Green

1.64

2.13

-14.0

Draw

3.82

3.76

0.4

Grimsby

5.22

3.77

7.4

Over 2.5

1.97

2.05

-2.0

Under 2.5

1.82

1.95

-3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Grimsby (0.4 %, 7.4 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.79 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.27. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Forest Green and the red line for guest team, Grimsby.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Forest Green

21%

34%

26%

19%

Grimsby

33%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Forest Green to score 1.71 goals and Grimsby to score 0.75 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Forest Green to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Forest Green to score 1.44 goals and Grimsby to score 0.89 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Forest Green to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

6.9%

0-1

25.8%

1

18.9%

2-3

50.2%

2

25.4%

4+

23.8%

3

24.8%

Ov 1.5

74.0%

4

15.7%

Un 1.5

25.8%

5

6.3%

Ov 2.5

48.6%

6+

1.8%

Un 2.5

51.2%

Gg

52.7%

Ov 3.5

23.8%

NoG

47.1%

Un 3.5

76.0%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.32

3.74

3.31

2-3 goals

2.04

4.02

3.83

4+ goals

2.14

3.35

4.25

Ov 1.5

2.07

3.78

3.96

Un 1.5

2.32

3.74

3.31

Ov 2.5

1.79

6.85

3.37

Un 2.5

2.60

2.64

4.23

Ov 3.5

2.14

3.35

4.25

Un 3.5

2.13

3.92

3.64

Goal-Goal

2.55

2.69

4.25

No Goal

1.80

6.83

3.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.94

5.66

3.24

NG+Un 2.5

1.96

6.83

3.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Harrogate vs Stevenage

In this section we will analyze the game between Harrogate and Stevenage for League Two (England), which will take place at 27 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Harrogate

1.72

2.35

-15.6

Draw

3.66

3.73

-0.5

Stevenage

4.76

3.27

9.6

Over 2.5

1.96

2.20

-5.6

Under 2.5

1.83

1.83

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stevenage (9.6 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.9 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.11. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Harrogate and the red line for guest team, Stevenage.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Harrogate

29%

25%

32%

13%

Stevenage

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.67 goals and Stevenage to score 0.8 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Harrogate to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.29 goals and Stevenage to score 0.91 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Harrogate to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

9.5%

0-1

28.7%

1

19.2%

2-3

50.2%

2

25.9%

4+

21.1%

3

24.3%

Ov 1.5

71.3%

4

13.9%

Un 1.5

28.7%

5

5.9%

Ov 2.5

45.4%

6+

1.3%

Un 2.5

54.6%

Gg

47.7%

Ov 3.5

21.1%

NoG

52.3%

Un 3.5

78.9%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.46

3.02

2.63

2-3 goals

1.88

5.28

3.59

4+ goals

2.78

2.71

3.70

Ov 1.5

2.08

4.12

3.62

Un 1.5

3.46

3.02

2.63

Ov 2.5

1.91

5.82

3.29

Un 2.5

2.90

2.87

3.25

Ov 3.5

2.78

2.71

3.70

Un 3.5

2.25

4.15

3.17

Goal-Goal

2.45

2.76

4.38

No Goal

2.26

5.51

2.65

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.96

4.90

3.50

NG+Un 2.5

2.40

5.51

2.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Port Vale vs Cheltenham

In this section we will analyze the game between Port Vale and Cheltenham for League Two (England), which will take place at 27 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Port Vale

2.72

4.74

-15.7

Draw

3.19

3.85

-5.4

Cheltenham

2.61

1.89

14.6

Over 2.5

2.19

1.97

5.1

Under 2.5

1.66

2.03

-11.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cheltenham, Over 2.5 (14.6 %, 5.1 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.73 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.37. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Port Vale and the red line for guest team, Cheltenham.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Port Vale

36%

32%

19%

13%

Cheltenham

-4%

62%

28%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.12 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.15 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.09 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.24 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

-1.3%

0-1

19.7%

1

21.0%

2-3

54.7%

2

29.4%

4+

25.5%

3

25.3%

Ov 1.5

80.2%

4

17.6%

Un 1.5

19.7%

5

6.2%

Ov 2.5

50.8%

6+

1.7%

Un 2.5

49.1%

Gg

66.7%

Ov 3.5

25.5%

NoG

33.2%

Un 3.5

74.4%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

-16.42

-15.15

0.89

2-3 goals

5.11

2.71

2.30

4+ goals

2.20

3.64

3.70

Ov 1.5

3.60

2.95

2.61

Un 1.5

-16.42

-15.15

0.89

Ov 2.5

2.21

7.26

2.44

Un 2.5

-25.84

2.60

1.53

Ov 3.5

2.20

3.64

3.70

Un 3.5

7.83

3.94

1.62

Goal-Goal

2.84

2.45

4.17

No Goal

-13.83

-25.54

0.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

6.64

2.91

NG+Un 2.5

-15.21

-25.54

0.90


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!