2020 10 27 Segunda Division (Spain)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Girona vs Cartagena at 27 October 2020
Albacete vs Las Palmas at 28 October 2020
Castellon vs Almeria at 28 October 2020
Espanol vs Ponferradina at 28 October 2020
Oviedo vs Logrones at 28 October 2020
Alcorcon vs Sp Gijon at 29 October 2020
Mallorca vs Malaga at 29 October 2020
Mirandes vs Zaragoza at 29 October 2020
Sabadell vs Leganes at 29 October 2020
Tenerife vs Lugo at 29 October 2020
Vallecano vs Fuenlabrada at 29 October 2020


Girona vs Cartagena

In this section we will analyze the game between Girona and Cartagena for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place at 27 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Girona

2.11

2.84

-12.2

Draw

2.89

3.47

-5.8

Cartagena

4.00

2.78

11.0

Over 2.5

2.82

2.44

5.5

Under 2.5

1.42

1.69

-11.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cartagena, Over 2.5 (11 %, 5.5 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.75 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.57.
Also, from our division observations, we have the advise to consider betting on draw (-X-) or to avoid betting on home or away win.We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Girona and the red line for guest team, Cartagena.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Girona

30%

38%

23%

9%

Cartagena

32%

34%

24%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Girona to score 1.16 goals and Cartagena to score 0.76 goals. So, they expect a total of 1.92 goals in the game and the home team Girona to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Girona to score 1.11 goals and Cartagena to score 1.03 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

9.6%

0-1

31.9%

1

22.3%

2-3

50.1%

2

27.3%

4+

18.1%

3

22.8%

Ov 1.5

68.2%

4

12.5%

Un 1.5

31.9%

5

4.6%

Ov 2.5

40.9%

6+

1.0%

Un 2.5

59.2%

Gg

47.7%

Ov 3.5

18.1%

NoG

52.4%

Un 3.5

82.0%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.64

3.32

3.13

2-3 goals

2.83

3.88

2.57

4+ goals

3.42

2.83

2.83

Ov 1.5

2.97

3.53

2.63

Un 1.5

2.64

3.32

3.13

Ov 2.5

2.59

6.39

2.19

Un 2.5

3.07

2.63

3.40

Ov 3.5

3.42

2.83

2.83

Un 3.5

2.75

3.64

2.76

Goal-Goal

3.70

2.47

3.08

No Goal

2.36

5.46

2.54

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.70

5.44

2.25

NG+Un 2.5

2.40

5.46

2.66


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Albacete vs Las Palmas

In this section we will analyze the game between Albacete and Las Palmas for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place at 28 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Albacete

2.58

2.07

9.5

Draw

2.78

3.70

-8.9

Las Palmas

3.09

4.03

-7.5

Over 2.5

2.72

2.25

7.7

Under 2.5

1.43

1.80

-14.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Albacete, Over 2.5 (9.5 %, 7.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.5 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.67. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Albacete and the red line for guest team, Las Palmas.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Albacete

22%

34%

26%

17%

Las Palmas

37%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Albacete to score 1.03 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.92 goals. So, they expect a total of 1.95 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Albacete to score 1.39 goals and Las Palmas to score 0.79 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the home team Albacete to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

8.1%

0-1

29.0%

1

20.9%

2-3

50.7%

2

26.5%

4+

20.3%

3

24.2%

Ov 1.5

71.0%

4

13.8%

Un 1.5

29.0%

5

5.2%

Ov 2.5

44.5%

6+

1.3%

Un 2.5

55.5%

Gg

49.0%

Ov 3.5

20.3%

NoG

51.0%

Un 3.5

79.7%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.27

3.58

3.58

2-3 goals

1.97

3.99

4.16

4+ goals

2.11

3.33

4.41

Ov 1.5

2.01

3.78

4.23

Un 1.5

2.27

3.58

3.58

Ov 2.5

1.73

7.30

3.50

Un 2.5

2.47

2.67

4.55

Ov 3.5

2.11

3.33

4.41

Un 3.5

2.06

3.83

3.93

Goal-Goal

2.55

2.61

4.45

No Goal

1.76

6.30

3.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.89

5.95

3.30

NG+Un 2.5

1.90

6.30

3.51


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Castellon vs Almeria

In this section we will analyze the game between Castellon and Almeria for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place at 28 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Castellon

2.89

2.53

4.9

Draw

2.79

3.47

-7.0

Almeria

2.72

3.15

-5.0

Over 2.5

2.67

2.48

2.9

Under 2.5

1.45

1.68

-9.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Castellon, Over 2.5 (4.9 %, 2.9 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.79 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.56. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Castellon and the red line for guest team, Almeria.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Castellon

29%

36%

24%

12%

Almeria

34%

36%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Castellon to score 0.97 goals and Almeria to score 1.01 goals. So, they expect a total of 1.98 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Castellon to score 1.18 goals and Almeria to score 0.88 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

9.9%

0-1

32.6%

1

22.7%

2-3

49.5%

2

27.0%

4+

18.0%

3

22.5%

Ov 1.5

67.5%

4

12.3%

Un 1.5

32.6%

5

4.6%

Ov 2.5

40.5%

6+

1.1%

Un 2.5

59.6%

Gg

46.9%

Ov 3.5

18.0%

NoG

53.2%

Un 3.5

82.1%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.29

3.13

2-3 goals

2.39

3.81

3.13

4+ goals

2.73

3.05

3.27

Ov 1.5

2.47

3.57

3.17

Un 1.5

2.65

3.29

3.13

Ov 2.5

2.11

6.86

2.63

Un 2.5

2.92

2.60

3.66

Ov 3.5

2.73

3.05

3.27

Un 3.5

2.49

3.59

3.13

Goal-Goal

3.09

2.48

3.66

No Goal

2.18

5.37

2.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

5.75

2.65

NG+Un 2.5

2.28

5.37

2.86


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!