2020 10 30 Championship (England)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Coventry vs Reading at 30 October 2020
Barnsley vs Watford at 31 October 2020
Bristol City vs Norwich at 31 October 2020
Luton vs Brentford at 31 October 2020
Middlesbrough vs Nott’m Forest at 31 October 2020
Millwall vs Huddersfield at 31 October 2020
QPR vs Cardiff at 31 October 2020
Stoke vs Rotherham at 31 October 2020
Wycombe vs Sheffield Weds at 31 October 2020


Coventry vs Reading

In this section we will analyze the game between Coventry and Reading for Championship (England), which will take place at 30 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Coventry

3.23

3.40

-1.5

Draw

3.18

4.39

-8.7

Reading

2.35

2.09

5.3

Over 2.5

2.32

1.89

9.8

Under 2.5

1.61

2.12

-14.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reading, Over 2.5 (5.3 %, 9.8 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.86 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.16. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Coventry and the red line for guest team, Reading.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Coventry

60%

1%

16%

23%

Reading

29%

53%

-13%

31%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Coventry to score 0.98 goals and Reading to score 1.22 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.02 goals and Reading to score 0.53 goals. So, we expect a total of 1.55 goals in the game and the home team Coventry to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

17.6%

0-1

49.70%

1

32.1%

2-3

31.10%

2

-2.6%

4+

19.20%

3

33.7%

Ov 1.5

50.30%

4

10.1%

Un 1.5

49.70%

5

2.2%

Ov 2.5

52.90%

6+

6.9%

Un 2.5

47.10%

Gg

28.2%

Ov 3.5

19.20%

NoG

71.8%

Un 3.5

80.80%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

248.50

2.82

1.56

2-3 goals

1.55

77.75

2.93

4+ goals

2.11

4.00

3.62

Ov 1.5

1.72

9.67

3.16

Un 1.5

248.50

2.82

1.56

Ov 2.5

2.17

11.02

2.23

Un 2.5

9.42

2.62

1.95

Ov 3.5

2.11

4.00

3.62

Un 3.5

3.98

4.49

1.90

Goal-Goal

1.58

5.42

5.42

No Goal

6.19

4.08

1.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.56

5.79

5.35

NG+Un 2.5

9.34

4.08

1.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Barnsley vs Watford

In this section we will analyze the game between Barnsley and Watford for Championship (England), which will take place at 31 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barnsley

3.27

2.30

12.9

Draw

3.18

3.57

-3.4

Watford

2.31

3.51

-14.8

Over 2.5

2.28

2.28

0.0

Under 2.5

1.63

1.78

-5.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Barnsley (12.9 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.23 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.81. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Barnsley and the red line for guest team, Watford.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barnsley

29%

34%

14%

23%

Watford

40%

34%

13%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnsley to score 0.98 goals and Watford to score 1.24 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.3 goals and Watford to score 0.79 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and the home team Barnsley to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

11.8%

0-1

35.20%

1

23.4%

2-3

43.00%

2

20.9%

4+

21.80%

3

22.1%

Ov 1.5

64.80%

4

14.0%

Un 1.5

35.20%

5

4.8%

Ov 2.5

43.90%

6+

3.0%

Un 2.5

56.10%

Gg

42.3%

Ov 3.5

21.80%

NoG

57.7%

Un 3.5

78.20%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.61

2.98

3.56

2-3 goals

2.21

3.77

3.55

4+ goals

2.08

4.54

3.35

Ov 1.5

2.16

4.00

3.48

Un 1.5

2.61

2.98

3.56

Ov 2.5

1.81

9.15

2.97

Un 2.5

2.92

2.42

4.09

Ov 3.5

2.08

4.54

3.35

Un 3.5

2.37

3.37

3.55

Goal-Goal

2.76

2.61

3.92

No Goal

2.05

4.89

3.26

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.02

6.44

2.86

NG+Un 2.5

2.33

4.89

3.26


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Bristol City vs Norwich

In this section we will analyze the game between Bristol City and Norwich for Championship (England), which will take place at 31 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bristol City

3.42

2.16

17.1

Draw

3.38

3.58

-1.7

Norwich

2.15

3.86

-20.6

Over 2.5

1.99

2.18

-4.4

Under 2.5

1.82

1.85

-0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol City (17.1 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.14 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.88. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Bristol City and the red line for guest team, Norwich.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bristol City

23%

36%

20%

22%

Norwich

33%

43%

14%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.02 goals and Norwich to score 1.43 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the guest team Bristol City to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bristol City to score 1.4 goals and Norwich to score 0.72 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the home team Bristol City to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.5%

0-1

29.1%

1

21.6%

2-3

48.0%

2

25.1%

4+

23.0%

3

22.9%

Ov 1.5

71.0%

4

15.7%

Un 1.5

29.1%

5

5.0%

Ov 2.5

45.9%

6+

2.3%

Un 2.5

54.2%

Gg

51.9%

Ov 3.5

23.0%

NoG

48.2%

Un 3.5

77.1%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.47

3.88

2.97

2-3 goals

2.16

3.10

4.66

4+ goals

1.89

4.60

3.97

Ov 1.5

2.06

3.46

4.41

Un 1.5

2.47

3.88

2.97

Ov 2.5

1.65

9.18

3.53

Un 2.5

2.96

2.36

4.20

Ov 3.5

1.89

4.60

3.97

Un 3.5

2.27

3.35

3.84

Goal-Goal

2.50

2.53

4.90

No Goal

1.90

6.43

3.15

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.75

7.28

3.43

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

6.43

3.00


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!