2020 10 30 Conference (England)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Maidenhead vs Solihull at 31 October 2020
Yeovil vs Chesterfield at 31 October 2020


Maidenhead vs Solihull

In this section we will analyze the game between Maidenhead and Solihull for Conference (England), which will take place at 31 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maidenhead

4.26

3.40

5.9

Draw

3.60

3.64

-0.3

Solihull

1.75

2.32

-14.0

Over 2.5

1.82

1.96

-3.9

Under 2.5

1.94

2.04

-2.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Maidenhead (5.9 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.96 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.04. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Maidenhead and the red line for guest team, Solihull.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maidenhead

24%

46%

20%

10%

Solihull

22%

33%

26%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 0.9 goals and Solihull to score 1.71 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Maidenhead to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.17 goals and Solihull to score 1.35 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

5.30%

0-1

23.400%

1

18.10%

2-3

50.800%

2

25.70%

4+

25.600%

3

25.10%

Ov 1.5

76.400%

4

17.20%

Un 1.5

23.400%

5

6.40%

Ov 2.5

50.700%

6+

2.00%

Un 2.5

49.100%

Gg

59.00%

Ov 3.5

25.600%

NoG

40.80%

Un 3.5

74.200%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.29

4.42

2.96

2-3 goals

3.91

3.34

2.25

4+ goals

4.20

3.66

2.05

Ov 1.5

4.00

3.44

2.18

Un 1.5

2.29

4.42

2.96

Ov 2.5

3.43

7.24

1.75

Un 2.5

3.39

2.40

3.48

Ov 3.5

4.20

3.66

2.05

Un 3.5

3.20

3.62

2.43

Goal-Goal

4.72

2.66

2.43

No Goal

2.43

7.70

2.18

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.50

6.26

1.80

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

7.70

2.40


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Yeovil vs Chesterfield

In this section we will analyze the game between Yeovil and Chesterfield for Conference (England), which will take place at 31 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Yeovil

1.86

2.78

-17.8

Draw

3.46

3.69

-1.8

Chesterfield

3.89

2.71

11.2

Over 2.5

1.67

2.04

-10.9

Under 2.5

2.13

1.96

4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Chesterfield, Under 2.5 (11.2 %, 4.1 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.04 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.96. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Yeovil and the red line for guest team, Chesterfield.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Yeovil

27%

36%

23%

15%

Chesterfield

27%

34%

24%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.76 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.04 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.8 goals in the game and the home team Yeovil to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.25 goals and Chesterfield to score 1.16 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.30%

0-1

26.20%

1

18.90%

2-3

48.90%

2

24.70%

4+

24.80%

3

24.20%

Ov 1.5

73.70%

4

15.70%

Un 1.5

26.20%

5

6.90%

Ov 2.5

49.00%

6+

2.20%

Un 2.5

50.90%

Gg

53.20%

Ov 3.5

24.80%

NoG

46.70%

Un 3.5

75.10%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.73

3.59

2.82

2-3 goals

2.73

4.01

2.60

4+ goals

2.92

3.26

2.85

Ov 1.5

2.79

3.72

2.68

Un 1.5

2.73

3.59

2.82

Ov 2.5

2.41

6.45

2.32

Un 2.5

3.24

2.61

3.24

Ov 3.5

2.92

3.26

2.85

Un 3.5

2.73

3.85

2.67

Goal-Goal

3.26

2.69

3.11

No Goal

2.37

6.40

2.37

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.52

5.39

2.40

NG+Un 2.5

2.46

6.40

2.46


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


Go to Top


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