2020 10 30 Eredivisie (Holland)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk at 01 November 2020
FC Emmen vs Feyenoord at 01 November 2020
Heracles vs Utrecht at 01 November 2020
PSV Eindhoven vs Den Haag at 01 November 2020
Ajax vs For Sittard at 31 October 2020
Groningen vs VVV Venlo at 31 October 2020
Twente vs Zwolle at 31 October 2020
Willem II vs Vitesse at 31 October 2020


AZ Alkmaar vs Waalwijk

In this section we will analyze the game between AZ Alkmaar and Waalwijk for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

AZ Alkmaar

1.24

2.07

-32.3

Draw

6.31

3.88

9.9

Waalwijk

10.86

3.85

16.8

Over 2.5

1.40

2.00

-21.4

Under 2.5

2.86

2.00

15.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Waalwijk, Under 2.5 (9.9 %, 16.8 %, 15 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.78 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.28. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, AZ Alkmaar and the red line for guest team, Waalwijk.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

AZ Alkmaar

23%

28%

28%

21%

Waalwijk

30%

44%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AZ Alkmaar to score 2.83 goals and Waalwijk to score 0.55 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.38 goals in the game and the home team AZ Alkmaar to win by 2.28 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AZ Alkmaar to score 1.47 goals and Waalwijk to score 0.78 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the home team AZ Alkmaar to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.00%

0-1

26%

1

18.50%

2-3

50%

2

24.50%

4+

24%

3

25.40%

Ov 1.5

74%

4

16.50%

Un 1.5

26%

5

6.10%

Ov 2.5

50%

6+

1.90%

Un 2.5

50%

Gg

53.70%

Ov 3.5

24%

NoG

46.20%

Un 3.5

75%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.07

3.64

2.50

2-3 goals

1.85

4.09

4.66

4+ goals

1.90

3.71

4.90

Ov 1.5

1.86

3.96

4.74

Un 1.5

3.07

3.64

2.50

Ov 2.5

1.58

7.56

4.23

Un 2.5

2.99

2.60

3.55

Ov 3.5

1.90

3.71

4.90

Un 3.5

2.14

3.93

3.61

Goal-Goal

2.13

2.86

5.54

No Goal

2.01

6.60

2.85

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.65

6.29

4.28

NG+Un 2.5

2.26

6.60

2.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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FC Emmen vs Feyenoord

In this section we will analyze the game between FC Emmen and Feyenoord for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

FC Emmen

4.80

2.45

20.0

Draw

4.19

3.44

5.2

Feyenoord

1.64

3.31

-30.8

Over 2.5

1.52

1.69

-6.6

Under 2.5

2.50

2.45

0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at FC Emmen, Draw, Under 2.5 (20 %, 5.2 %, 0.8 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.53 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.89. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, FC Emmen and the red line for guest team, Feyenoord.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

FC Emmen

16%

36%

27%

21%

Feyenoord

14%

50%

21%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 0.96 goals and Feyenoord to score 2.14 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.1 goals in the game and the guest team FC Emmen to win by 1.18 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 1.53 goals and Feyenoord to score 1.06 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team FC Emmen to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

2.30%

0-1

15.5%

1

13.20%

2-3

51.8%

2

25.40%

4+

32.7%

3

26.40%

Ov 1.5

84.5%

4

21.50%

Un 1.5

15.5%

5

8.20%

Ov 2.5

59.1%

6+

3.00%

Un 2.5

40.9%

Gg

71.90%

Ov 3.5

32.7%

NoG

28.10%

Un 3.5

67.3%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.04

6.74

1.91

2-3 goals

2.53

2.86

3.92

4+ goals

2.17

3.76

3.67

Ov 1.5

2.37

3.15

3.82

Un 1.5

3.04

6.74

1.91

Ov 2.5

1.86

6.79

3.16

Un 2.5

4.54

2.00

3.56

Ov 3.5

2.17

3.76

3.67

Un 3.5

2.63

3.30

3.16

Goal-Goal

2.51

2.68

4.38

No Goal

2.34

12.22

2.04

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.87

6.18

3.28

NG+Un 2.5

2.53

12.22

1.98


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Heracles vs Utrecht

In this section we will analyze the game between Heracles and Utrecht for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Heracles

3.32

2.87

4.7

Draw

3.71

3.73

-0.1

Utrecht

2.05

2.60

-10.3

Over 2.5

1.63

1.47

6.7

Under 2.5

2.27

3.12

-12.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Heracles, Over 2.5 (4.7 %, 6.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.35 and for Under 2.5 goals 3.86. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Heracles and the red line for guest team, Utrecht.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Heracles

16%

39%

13%

32%

Utrecht

16%

30%

25%

28%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.19 goals and Utrecht to score 1.71 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.9 goals in the game and the guest team Heracles to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Heracles to score 1.6 goals and Utrecht to score 1.6 goals. So, we expect a total of 3.2 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

2.600%

0-1

14.0%

1

11.400%

2-3

41.7%

2

18.200%

4+

44.4%

3

23.500%

Ov 1.5

86.1%

4

24.000%

Un 1.5

14.0%

5

11.500%

Ov 2.5

67.9%

6+

8.900%

Un 2.5

32.2%

Gg

70.200%

Ov 3.5

44.4%

NoG

29.900%

Un 3.5

55.7%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.19

5.38

2.80

2-3 goals

3.76

3.48

2.24

4+ goals

2.54

3.67

3.00

Ov 1.5

3.01

3.57

2.58

Un 1.5

2.19

5.38

2.80

Ov 2.5

2.56

5.61

2.32

Un 2.5

3.79

2.21

3.54

Ov 3.5

2.54

3.67

3.00

Un 3.5

3.18

3.82

2.36

Goal-Goal

3.28

2.91

2.84

No Goal

2.20

11.50

2.18

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.72

4.81

2.36

NG+Un 2.5

2.38

11.50

2.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!