In this article we will analyse the following games:
Betis vs Elche at 01 November 2020
Celta vs Sociedad at 01 November 2020
Granada vs Levante at 01 November 2020
Valencia vs Getafe at 01 November 2020
Villarreal vs Valladolid at 02 November 2020
Eibar vs Cadiz at 30 October 2020
Alaves vs Barcelona at 31 October 2020
Ath Bilbao vs Sevilla at 31 October 2020
Osasuna vs Ath Madrid at 31 October 2020
Real Madrid vs Huesca at 31 October 2020
Betis vs Elche
In this section we will analyze the game between Betis and Elche for La Liga (Spain), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Betis |
1.47 |
2.72 |
-31.3 |
|
Draw |
4.32 |
3.37 |
6.5 |
|
Elche |
7.24 |
2.98 |
19.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
1.95 |
0.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.06 |
-5.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Elche (6.5 %, 19.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.79 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.27. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book
The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Betis and the red line for guest team, Elche. 
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Betis |
23% |
38% |
19% |
20% |
|
Elche |
15% |
54% |
20% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Betis to score 1.89 goals and Elche to score 0.6 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Betis to win by 1.29 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Betis to score 1.37 goals and Elche to score 0.95 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Betis to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Prob% |
Goals |
Prob% |
|
0 |
3.4% |
0-1 |
21.10% |
|
1 |
17.7% |
2-3 |
51.00% |
|
2 |
27.5% |
4+ |
27.90% |
|
3 |
23.5% |
Ov 1.5 |
78.90% |
|
4 |
19.2% |
Un 1.5 |
21.10% |
|
5 |
6.3% |
Ov 2.5 |
51.40% |
|
6+ |
2.4% |
Un 2.5 |
48.60% |
|
Gg |
65.9% |
Ov 3.5 |
27.90% |
|
NoG |
34.1% |
Un 3.5 |
72.10% |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.84 |
6.21 |
1.73 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.15 |
2.54 |
3.47 |
|
4+ goals |
1.86 |
4.43 |
4.23 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.53 |
2.99 |
3.70 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.84 |
6.21 |
1.73 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
8.16 |
3.08 |
|
Un 2.5 |
5.86 |
2.07 |
2.89 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.86 |
4.43 |
4.23 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.32 |
3.07 |
2.68 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.59 |
2.50 |
4.67 |
|
No Goal |
3.02 |
10.03 |
1.76 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
7.27 |
3.25 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.43 |
10.03 |
1.70 |
See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!
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Celta vs Sociedad
In this section we will analyze the game between Celta and Sociedad for La Liga (Spain), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Celta |
3.03 |
3.44 |
-3.9 |
|
Draw |
3.23 |
4.00 |
-6.0 |
|
Sociedad |
2.45 |
2.18 |
5.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.18 |
1.50 |
20.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
3.01 |
-26.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Sociedad, Over 2.5 (5.1 %, 20.8 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.4 and for Under 2.5 goals 3.5. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book
The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Celta and the red line for guest team, Sociedad. 
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Celta |
27% |
25% |
32% |
16% |
|
Sociedad |
-9% |
67% |
24% |
19% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Celta to score 1.06 goals and Sociedad to score 1.23 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Celta to score 1.37 goals and Sociedad to score 1.27 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Prob% |
Goals |
Prob% |
|
0 |
-2.40% |
0-1 |
13.0% |
|
1 |
15.40% |
2-3 |
51.4% |
|
2 |
20.10% |
4+ |
35.6% |
|
3 |
31.30% |
Ov 1.5 |
87.0% |
|
4 |
22.90% |
Un 1.5 |
13.0% |
|
5 |
9.80% |
Ov 2.5 |
66.9% |
|
6+ |
2.90% |
Un 2.5 |
33.1% |
|
Gg |
80.10% |
Ov 3.5 |
35.6% |
|
NoG |
19.90% |
Un 3.5 |
64.4% |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
-5.65 |
-5.42 |
0.73 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.97 |
3.06 |
2.97 |
|
4+ goals |
2.52 |
3.36 |
3.27 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.77 |
3.18 |
3.09 |
|
Un 1.5 |
-5.65 |
-5.42 |
0.73 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.31 |
3.05 |
|
Un 2.5 |
-6.25 |
2.30 |
1.38 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.36 |
3.27 |
|
Un 3.5 |
4.29 |
4.47 |
1.84 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.24 |
2.92 |
4.74 |
|
No Goal |
-2.97 |
-8.29 |
0.69 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
5.97 |
3.75 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
-3.08 |
-8.29 |
0.68 |
See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!
Go to Top
Granada vs Levante
In this section we will analyze the game between Granada and Levante for La Liga (Spain), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Granada |
2.25 |
1.87 |
9.0 |
|
Draw |
3.25 |
4.12 |
-6.5 |
|
Levante |
3.37 |
4.52 |
-7.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.13 |
1.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.88 |
-6.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Granada, Over 2.5 (9 %, 1.1 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.95 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.05. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book
The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Granada and the red line for guest team, Levante. 
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Granada |
21% |
32% |
25% |
23% |
|
Levante |
48% |
24% |
18% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Granada to score 1.3 goals and Levante to score 0.98 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Granada to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Granada to score 1.5 goals and Levante to score 0.85 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Granada to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Prob% |
Goals |
Prob% |
|
0 |
9.9% |
0-1 |
30.0% |
|
1 |
20.1% |
2-3 |
48.0% |
|
2 |
23.2% |
4+ |
22.1% |
|
3 |
24.8% |
Ov 1.5 |
70.1% |
|
4 |
13.2% |
Un 1.5 |
30.0% |
|
5 |
6.6% |
Ov 2.5 |
46.9% |
|
6+ |
2.3% |
Un 2.5 |
53.2% |
|
Gg |
41.4% |
Ov 3.5 |
22.1% |
|
NoG |
58.7% |
Un 3.5 |
78.0% |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.99 |
3.03 |
6.00 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.67 |
6.32 |
4.14 |
|
4+ goals |
2.26 |
3.25 |
4.02 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.82 |
4.87 |
4.10 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.99 |
3.03 |
6.00 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
6.90 |
3.53 |
|
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |
3.04 |
6.05 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.25 |
4.02 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.78 |
4.46 |
4.70 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
2.88 |
3.66 |
|
No Goal |
1.54 |
5.93 |
5.44 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
4.97 |
2.99 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.70 |
5.93 |
5.18 |