2020 10 30 La Liga (Spain)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Betis vs Elche at 01 November 2020
Celta vs Sociedad at 01 November 2020
Granada vs Levante at 01 November 2020
Valencia vs Getafe at 01 November 2020
Villarreal vs Valladolid at 02 November 2020
Eibar vs Cadiz at 30 October 2020
Alaves vs Barcelona at 31 October 2020
Ath Bilbao vs Sevilla at 31 October 2020
Osasuna vs Ath Madrid at 31 October 2020
Real Madrid vs Huesca at 31 October 2020


Betis vs Elche

In this section we will analyze the game between Betis and Elche for La Liga (Spain), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Betis

1.47

2.72

-31.3

Draw

4.32

3.37

6.5

Elche

7.24

2.98

19.7

Over 2.5

1.95

1.95

0.0

Under 2.5

1.85

2.06

-5.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Elche (6.5 %, 19.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.79 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.27. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Betis and the red line for guest team, Elche.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Betis

23%

38%

19%

20%

Elche

15%

54%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Betis to score 1.89 goals and Elche to score 0.6 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Betis to win by 1.29 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Betis to score 1.37 goals and Elche to score 0.95 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Betis to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

3.4%

0-1

21.10%

1

17.7%

2-3

51.00%

2

27.5%

4+

27.90%

3

23.5%

Ov 1.5

78.90%

4

19.2%

Un 1.5

21.10%

5

6.3%

Ov 2.5

51.40%

6+

2.4%

Un 2.5

48.60%

Gg

65.9%

Ov 3.5

27.90%

NoG

34.1%

Un 3.5

72.10%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.84

6.21

1.73

2-3 goals

3.15

2.54

3.47

4+ goals

1.86

4.43

4.23

Ov 1.5

2.53

2.99

3.70

Un 1.5

3.84

6.21

1.73

Ov 2.5

1.81

8.16

3.08

Un 2.5

5.86

2.07

2.89

Ov 3.5

1.86

4.43

4.23

Un 3.5

3.32

3.07

2.68

Goal-Goal

2.59

2.50

4.67

No Goal

3.02

10.03

1.76

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.80

7.27

3.25

NG+Un 2.5

3.43

10.03

1.70


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Celta vs Sociedad

In this section we will analyze the game between Celta and Sociedad for La Liga (Spain), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Celta

3.03

3.44

-3.9

Draw

3.23

4.00

-6.0

Sociedad

2.45

2.18

5.1

Over 2.5

2.18

1.50

20.8

Under 2.5

1.68

3.01

-26.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sociedad, Over 2.5 (5.1 %, 20.8 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.4 and for Under 2.5 goals 3.5. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Celta and the red line for guest team, Sociedad.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Celta

27%

25%

32%

16%

Sociedad

-9%

67%

24%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Celta to score 1.06 goals and Sociedad to score 1.23 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Celta to score 1.37 goals and Sociedad to score 1.27 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

-2.40%

0-1

13.0%

1

15.40%

2-3

51.4%

2

20.10%

4+

35.6%

3

31.30%

Ov 1.5

87.0%

4

22.90%

Un 1.5

13.0%

5

9.80%

Ov 2.5

66.9%

6+

2.90%

Un 2.5

33.1%

Gg

80.10%

Ov 3.5

35.6%

NoG

19.90%

Un 3.5

64.4%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

-5.65

-5.42

0.73

2-3 goals

2.97

3.06

2.97

4+ goals

2.52

3.36

3.27

Ov 1.5

2.77

3.18

3.09

Un 1.5

-5.65

-5.42

0.73

Ov 2.5

1.94

6.31

3.05

Un 2.5

-6.25

2.30

1.38

Ov 3.5

2.52

3.36

3.27

Un 3.5

4.29

4.47

1.84

Goal-Goal

2.24

2.92

4.74

No Goal

-2.97

-8.29

0.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.77

5.97

3.75

NG+Un 2.5

-3.08

-8.29

0.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Granada vs Levante

In this section we will analyze the game between Granada and Levante for La Liga (Spain), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Granada

2.25

1.87

9.0

Draw

3.25

4.12

-6.5

Levante

3.37

4.52

-7.5

Over 2.5

2.18

2.13

1.1

Under 2.5

1.68

1.88

-6.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Granada, Over 2.5 (9 %, 1.1 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.95 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.05. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Granada and the red line for guest team, Levante.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Granada

21%

32%

25%

23%

Levante

48%

24%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Granada to score 1.3 goals and Levante to score 0.98 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Granada to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Granada to score 1.5 goals and Levante to score 0.85 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Granada to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

9.9%

0-1

30.0%

1

20.1%

2-3

48.0%

2

23.2%

4+

22.1%

3

24.8%

Ov 1.5

70.1%

4

13.2%

Un 1.5

30.0%

5

6.6%

Ov 2.5

46.9%

6+

2.3%

Un 2.5

53.2%

Gg

41.4%

Ov 3.5

22.1%

NoG

58.7%

Un 3.5

78.0%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.99

3.03

6.00

2-3 goals

1.67

6.32

4.14

4+ goals

2.26

3.25

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.82

4.87

4.10

Un 1.5

1.99

3.03

6.00

Ov 2.5

1.75

6.90

3.53

Un 2.5

1.98

3.04

6.05

Ov 3.5

2.26

3.25

4.02

Un 3.5

1.78

4.46

4.70

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.88

3.66

No Goal

1.54

5.93

5.44

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

4.97

2.99

NG+Un 2.5

1.70

5.93

5.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!