2020 10 30 League One (England)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Burton vs Blackpool at 31 October 2020
Fleetwood Town vs Oxford at 31 October 2020
Gillingham vs Sunderland at 31 October 2020
Peterboro vs Shrewsbury at 31 October 2020
Portsmouth vs Charlton at 31 October 2020


Burton vs Blackpool

In this section we will analyze the game between Burton and Blackpool for League One (England), which will take place at 31 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Burton

2.88

2.19

10.9

Draw

3.35

3.73

-3.0

Blackpool

2.39

3.62

-14.2

Over 2.5

1.98

2.11

-3.1

Under 2.5

1.81

1.90

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Burton (10.9 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.11 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.9. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Burton and the red line for guest team, Blackpool.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Burton

22%

35%

26%

18%

Blackpool

34%

36%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burton to score 1.14 goals and Blackpool to score 1.31 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burton to score 1.39 goals and Blackpool to score 0.91 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the home team Burton to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.5%

0-1

27.1%

1

19.6%

2-3

49.8%

2

25.4%

4+

23.0%

3

24.4%

Ov 1.5

72.8%

4

15.0%

Un 1.5

27.1%

5

6.2%

Ov 2.5

47.4%

6+

1.8%

Un 2.5

52.5%

Gg

51.4%

Ov 3.5

23.0%

NoG

48.5%

Un 3.5

76.9%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.30

3.61

3.47

2-3 goals

2.08

4.05

3.66

4+ goals

2.32

3.29

3.77

Ov 1.5

2.15

3.77

3.70

Un 1.5

2.30

3.61

3.47

Ov 2.5

1.89

6.77

3.10

Un 2.5

2.56

2.65

4.30

Ov 3.5

2.32

3.29

3.77

Un 3.5

2.15

3.88

3.59

Goal-Goal

2.71

2.66

3.92

No Goal

1.82

6.47

3.37

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.06

5.59

2.98

NG+Un 2.5

1.96

6.47

3.30


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Fleetwood Town vs Oxford

In this section we will analyze the game between Fleetwood Town and Oxford for League One (England), which will take place at 31 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fleetwood Town

2.46

1.87

12.8

Draw

3.16

3.95

-6.3

Oxford

2.93

4.74

-13.0

Over 2.5

1.88

2.13

-6.2

Under 2.5

1.90

1.88

0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Fleetwood Town, Under 2.5 (12.8 %, 0.6 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.13 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.88. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Fleetwood Town and the red line for guest team, Oxford.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fleetwood Town

16%

36%

28%

20%

Oxford

40%

36%

15%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fleetwood Town to score 1.35 goals and Oxford to score 1.2 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fleetwood Town to score 1.52 goals and Oxford to score 0.74 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Fleetwood Town to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

6.40%

0-1

26.6%

1

20.20%

2-3

51.4%

2

26.50%

4+

22.0%

3

24.90%

Ov 1.5

73.4%

4

14.60%

Un 1.5

26.6%

5

5.60%

Ov 2.5

46.9%

6+

1.80%

Un 2.5

53.1%

Gg

50.40%

Ov 3.5

22.0%

NoG

49.60%

Un 3.5

78.0%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.83

4.16

4.67

2-3 goals

1.76

4.02

5.47

4+ goals

2.22

3.61

3.67

Ov 1.5

1.88

3.88

4.77

Un 1.5

1.83

4.16

4.67

Ov 2.5

1.69

7.69

3.61

Un 2.5

2.06

2.77

6.56

Ov 3.5

2.22

3.61

3.67

Un 3.5

1.78

4.06

5.17

Goal-Goal

2.52

2.67

4.38

No Goal

1.48

7.75

5.17

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

6.16

3.27

NG+Un 2.5

1.56

7.75

4.98


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Gillingham vs Sunderland

In this section we will analyze the game between Gillingham and Sunderland for League One (England), which will take place at 31 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Gillingham

4.99

3.06

12.6

Draw

3.48

4.33

-5.6

Sunderland

1.74

2.26

-13.2

Over 2.5

2.10

1.69

11.6

Under 2.5

1.72

2.46

-17.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Gillingham, Over 2.5 (12.6 %, 11.6 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage remains the same so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.69 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.45. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Gillingham and the red line for guest team, Sunderland.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Gillingham

36%

18%

28%

19%

Sunderland

21%

37%

11%

31%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gillingham to score 0.76 goals and Sunderland to score 1.58 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the guest team Gillingham to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gillingham to score 1.3 goals and Sunderland to score 1.27 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.40%

0-1

24.3%

1

16.90%

2-3

43.6%

2

16.50%

4+

32.2%

3

27.10%

Ov 1.5

75.8%

4

15.70%

Un 1.5

24.3%

5

10.60%

Ov 2.5

59.3%

6+

5.90%

Un 2.5

40.8%

Gg

51.00%

Ov 3.5

32.2%

NoG

49.10%

Un 3.5

67.9%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

6.39

3.28

1.85

2-3 goals

2.19

6.51

2.56

4+ goals

3.54

3.58

2.28

Ov 1.5

2.61

4.83

2.44

Un 1.5

6.39

3.28

1.85

Ov 2.5

2.56

6.59

2.19

Un 2.5

4.25

2.89

2.39

Ov 3.5

3.54

3.58

2.28

Un 3.5

2.86

4.82

2.26

Goal-Goal

2.66

3.25

3.17

No Goal

3.61

6.64

1.75

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.31

4.92

2.75

NG+Un 2.5

3.55

6.64

1.99


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!