In this article we will analyse the following games:
Barrow vs Bradford at 31 October 2020
Southend vs Port Vale at 31 October 2020
Stevenage vs Grimsby at 31 October 2020
Tranmere vs Morecambe at 31 October 2020
Barrow vs Bradford
In this section we will analyze the game between Barrow and Bradford for League Two (England), which will take place at 31 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Barrow |
2.55 |
2.27 |
4.8 |
|
Draw |
3.08 |
3.64 |
-5.0 |
|
Bradford |
2.85 |
3.50 |
-6.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.19 |
-3.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.84 |
-2.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Barrow (4.8 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.9 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.11. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book
The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Barrow and the red line for guest team, Bradford. 
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Barrow |
24% |
36% |
23% |
17% |
|
Bradford |
34% |
36% |
21% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.25 goals and Bradford to score 1.16 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barrow to score 1.34 goals and Bradford to score 0.9 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Barrow to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Prob% |
Goals |
Prob% |
|
0 |
7.9% |
0-1 |
28.6% |
|
1 |
20.7% |
2-3 |
49.8% |
|
2 |
25.8% |
4+ |
21.7% |
|
3 |
24.0% |
Ov 1.5 |
71.5% |
|
4 |
14.4% |
Un 1.5 |
28.6% |
|
5 |
5.7% |
Ov 2.5 |
45.7% |
|
6+ |
1.6% |
Un 2.5 |
54.4% |
|
Gg |
50.8% |
Ov 3.5 |
21.7% |
|
NoG |
49.3% |
Un 3.5 |
78.4% |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.36 |
3.62 |
3.33 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.25 |
3.80 |
3.41 |
|
4+ goals |
2.19 |
3.39 |
4.02 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.23 |
3.67 |
3.58 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.36 |
3.62 |
3.33 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |
7.14 |
3.03 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.73 |
2.59 |
4.03 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.19 |
3.39 |
4.02 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.29 |
3.73 |
3.38 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.76 |
2.61 |
3.94 |
|
No Goal |
1.92 |
6.24 |
3.14 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.89 |
2.92 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
6.24 |
3.06 |
See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!
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Southend vs Port Vale
In this section we will analyze the game between Southend and Port Vale for League Two (England), which will take place at 31 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Southend |
4.92 |
3.37 |
9.3 |
|
Draw |
3.62 |
3.79 |
-1.2 |
|
Port Vale |
1.71 |
2.27 |
-14.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.09 |
2.12 |
-0.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.89 |
-5.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Southend (9.3 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.85 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.18. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book
The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Southend and the red line for guest team, Port Vale. 
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Southend |
36% |
32% |
16% |
16% |
|
Port Vale |
21% |
38% |
25% |
15% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southend to score 0.75 goals and Port Vale to score 1.59 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the guest team Southend to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southend to score 1.12 goals and Port Vale to score 1.22 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Prob% |
Goals |
Prob% |
|
0 |
7.6% |
0-1 |
28.10% |
|
1 |
20.5% |
2-3 |
47.90% |
|
2 |
24.8% |
4+ |
24.00% |
|
3 |
23.1% |
Ov 1.5 |
71.90% |
|
4 |
15.1% |
Un 1.5 |
28.10% |
|
5 |
6.5% |
Ov 2.5 |
47.10% |
|
6+ |
2.4% |
Un 2.5 |
52.90% |
|
Gg |
50.6% |
Ov 3.5 |
24.00% |
|
NoG |
49.4% |
Un 3.5 |
76.00% |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
4.13 |
3.70 |
2.05 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.74 |
3.89 |
2.10 |
|
4+ goals |
2.38 |
3.69 |
3.24 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.14 |
3.82 |
2.38 |
|
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |
3.70 |
2.05 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |
7.25 |
2.23 |
|
Un 2.5 |
5.19 |
2.66 |
2.32 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.69 |
3.24 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.88 |
3.82 |
2.08 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.12 |
2.69 |
3.24 |
|
No Goal |
3.66 |
6.50 |
1.75 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
5.89 |
2.46 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.98 |
6.50 |
1.78 |
See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!
Go to Top
Stevenage vs Grimsby
In this section we will analyze the game between Stevenage and Grimsby for League Two (England), which will take place at 31 October 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Stevenage |
2.39 |
2.94 |
-7.8 |
|
Draw |
3.17 |
3.70 |
-4.5 |
|
Grimsby |
3.02 |
2.56 |
5.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.21 |
2.09 |
2.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.92 |
-8.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Grimsby, Over 2.5 (5.9 %, 2.6 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 7% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.82 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.22. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book
The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Stevenage and the red line for guest team, Grimsby. 
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Stevenage |
32% |
30% |
26% |
12% |
|
Grimsby |
25% |
36% |
24% |
15% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.22 goals and Grimsby to score 1.04 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.19 goals and Grimsby to score 1.16 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Prob% |
Goals |
Prob% |
|
0 |
8.00% |
0-1 |
27.0% |
|
1 |
19.00% |
2-3 |
49.6% |
|
2 |
25.20% |
4+ |
23.5% |
|
3 |
24.40% |
Ov 1.5 |
73.1% |
|
4 |
15.00% |
Un 1.5 |
27.0% |
|
5 |
6.70% |
Ov 2.5 |
47.9% |
|
6+ |
1.80% |
Un 2.5 |
52.2% |
|
Gg |
51.20% |
Ov 3.5 |
23.5% |
|
NoG |
48.90% |
Un 3.5 |
76.6% |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.51 |
3.38 |
2.39 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.61 |
4.51 |
2.53 |
|
4+ goals |
3.22 |
2.94 |
2.87 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.78 |
3.85 |
2.63 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.51 |
3.38 |
2.39 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |
5.99 |
2.37 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.65 |
2.75 |
2.76 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.22 |
2.94 |
2.87 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.87 |
4.03 |
2.48 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.08 |
2.69 |
3.28 |
|
No Goal |
2.81 |
6.11 |
2.08 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |
5.03 |
2.58 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.88 |
6.11 |
2.18 |