2020 10 30 Ligue One (France)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Dijon vs Lorient at 01 November 2020
Lille vs Lyon at 01 November 2020
Monaco vs Bordeaux at 01 November 2020
Nimes vs Metz at 01 November 2020
St Etienne vs Montpellier at 01 November 2020
Nantes vs Paris SG at 31 October 2020
Rennes vs Brest at 31 October 2020


Dijon vs Lorient

In this section we will analyze the game between Dijon and Lorient for Ligue One (France), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dijon

3.14

2.39

10.0

Draw

3.45

3.72

-2.1

Lorient

2.27

3.21

-12.9

Over 2.5

1.93

2.47

-11.3

Under 2.5

1.87

1.68

6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Dijon, Under 2.5 (10 %, 6 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.86 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.54. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Dijon and the red line for guest team, Lorient.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dijon

30%

30%

31%

9%

Lorient

38%

36%

10%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dijon to score 1.11 goals and Lorient to score 1.4 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dijon to score 1.19 goals and Lorient to score 0.77 goals. So, we expect a total of 1.96 goals in the game and the home team Dijon to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

11.50%

0-1

33.9%

1

22.40%

2-3

48.0%

2

25.60%

4+

18.0%

3

22.40%

Ov 1.5

66.0%

4

11.00%

Un 1.5

33.9%

5

5.60%

Ov 2.5

40.4%

6+

1.40%

Un 2.5

59.5%

Gg

43.10%

Ov 3.5

18.0%

NoG

56.80%

Un 3.5

81.9%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.97

2.95

3.08

2-3 goals

1.83

4.40

4.40

4+ goals

4.29

4.00

1.94

Ov 1.5

2.17

4.29

3.27

Un 1.5

2.97

2.95

3.08

Ov 2.5

2.15

8.98

2.36

Un 2.5

2.59

2.66

4.22

Ov 3.5

4.29

4.00

1.94

Un 3.5

2.18

3.66

3.74

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.80

3.48

No Goal

2.14

4.94

3.02

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

7.16

2.60

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

4.94

3.45


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Lille vs Lyon

In this section we will analyze the game between Lille and Lyon for Ligue One (France), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lille

2.74

1.81

18.8

Draw

3.28

4.12

-6.2

Lyon

2.64

4.90

-17.5

Over 2.5

1.92

1.92

0.0

Under 2.5

1.89

2.09

-5.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lille (18.8 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.15 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.87. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Lille and the red line for guest team, Lyon.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lille

18%

29%

28%

26%

Lyon

37%

36%

22%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lille to score 1.25 goals and Lyon to score 1.28 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lille to score 1.62 goals and Lyon to score 0.81 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Lille to win by 0.81 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

6.50%

0-1

23.4%

1

16.90%

2-3

51.1%

2

24.40%

4+

25.4%

3

26.70%

Ov 1.5

76.5%

4

16.90%

Un 1.5

23.4%

5

7.10%

Ov 2.5

52.1%

6+

1.40%

Un 2.5

47.8%

Gg

52.10%

Ov 3.5

25.4%

NoG

47.80%

Un 3.5

74.5%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.23

3.60

3.66

2-3 goals

1.71

4.91

4.69

4+ goals

1.69

3.43

8.47

Ov 1.5

1.71

4.30

5.50

Un 1.5

2.23

3.60

3.66

Ov 2.5

1.51

7.04

5.16

Un 2.5

2.31

2.83

4.69

Ov 3.5

1.69

3.43

8.47

Un 3.5

1.85

4.41

4.31

Goal-Goal

2.08

2.93

5.66

No Goal

1.58

7.35

4.31

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.66

5.64

4.53

NG+Un 2.5

1.81

7.35

3.67


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Monaco vs Bordeaux

In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Bordeaux for Ligue One (France), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Monaco

1.91

2.42

-11.0

Draw

3.76

3.61

1.1

Bordeaux

3.88

3.23

5.2

Over 2.5

1.79

2.44

-14.9

Under 2.5

2.02

1.69

9.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Bordeaux, Under 2.5 (1.1 %, 5.2 %, 9.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.82 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.55. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Monaco and the red line for guest team, Bordeaux.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Monaco

29%

33%

28%

10%

Bordeaux

36%

36%

14%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Monaco to score 1.67 goals and Bordeaux to score 0.99 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Monaco to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Monaco to score 1.2 goals and Bordeaux to score 0.82 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and the home team Monaco to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

10.40%

0-1

32.6%

1

22.20%

2-3

48.8%

2

26.40%

4+

18.6%

3

22.40%

Ov 1.5

67.4%

4

12.10%

Un 1.5

32.6%

5

5.20%

Ov 2.5

41.0%

6+

1.30%

Un 2.5

59.0%

Gg

45.50%

Ov 3.5

18.6%

NoG

54.50%

Un 3.5

81.4%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.74

3.13

3.17

2-3 goals

2.00

4.10

3.90

4+ goals

3.58

3.44

2.33

Ov 1.5

2.28

3.90

3.29

Un 1.5

2.74

3.13

3.17

Ov 2.5

2.14

7.59

2.50

Un 2.5

2.65

2.65

4.10

Ov 3.5

3.58

3.44

2.33

Un 3.5

2.24

3.65

3.57

Goal-Goal

2.94

2.63

3.58

No Goal

2.10

5.24

3.01

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.17

6.22

2.65

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

5.24

3.27


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!