2020 10 30 Premier League (England)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Man United vs Arsenal at 01 November 2020
Tottenham vs Brighton at 01 November 2020
Aston Villa vs Southampton at 01 November 2020
Leeds vs Leicester at 02 November 2020
Fulham vs West Brom at 02 November 2020
Wolves vs Crystal Palace at 30 October 2020
Liverpool vs West Ham at 31 October 2020
Sheffield United vs Man City at 31 October 2020
Burnley vs Chelsea at 31 October 2020


Man United vs Arsenal

In this section we will analyze the game between Man United and Arsenal for Premier League (England), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Man United

2.04

3.21

-17.9

Draw

3.66

3.72

-0.4

Arsenal

3.58

2.39

13.9

Over 2.5

1.74

2.04

-8.5

Under 2.5

2.12

1.96

3.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Arsenal, Under 2.5 (13.9 %, 3.9 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2 and for Under 2.5 goals 2. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Man United and the red line for guest team, Arsenal.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Man United

31%

40%

9%

20%

Arsenal

25%

33%

23%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man United to score 1.65 goals and Arsenal to score 1.1 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Man United to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man United to score 1.17 goals and Arsenal to score 1.26 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.90%

0-1

28.3%

1

20.40%

2-3

45.8%

2

22.70%

4+

26.0%

3

23.10%

Ov 1.5

71.8%

4

16.10%

Un 1.5

28.3%

5

6.20%

Ov 2.5

49.1%

6+

3.70%

Un 2.5

51.0%

Gg

51.50%

Ov 3.5

26.0%

NoG

48.60%

Un 3.5

74.1%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.77

3.58

2.77

2-3 goals

4.58

3.44

2.04

4+ goals

2.34

4.56

2.83

Ov 1.5

3.40

3.78

2.26

Un 1.5

2.77

3.58

2.77

Ov 2.5

2.60

8.61

2.00

Un 2.5

4.11

2.41

2.93

Ov 3.5

2.34

4.56

2.83

Un 3.5

3.67

3.50

2.27

Goal-Goal

3.71

2.71

2.77

No Goal

2.79

6.15

2.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.75

6.70

2.05

NG+Un 2.5

3.04

6.15

2.17


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Tottenham vs Brighton

In this section we will analyze the game between Tottenham and Brighton for Premier League (England), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tottenham

1.63

2.40

-19.7

Draw

4.17

3.98

1.1

Brighton

5.29

3.00

14.4

Over 2.5

1.65

1.80

-5.1

Under 2.5

2.26

2.26

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Brighton (1.1 %, 14.4 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.76 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.32. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Tottenham and the red line for guest team, Brighton.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tottenham

28%

26%

16%

29%

Brighton

28%

34%

22%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tottenham to score 2.03 goals and Brighton to score 0.85 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and the home team Tottenham to win by 1.18 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tottenham to score 1.46 goals and Brighton to score 1.16 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.62 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.9%

0-1

24.70%

1

16.8%

2-3

43.50%

2

19.5%

4+

31.70%

3

24.0%

Ov 1.5

75.20%

4

17.8%

Un 1.5

24.70%

5

9.1%

Ov 2.5

55.70%

6+

4.8%

Un 2.5

44.20%

Gg

51.6%

Ov 3.5

31.70%

NoG

48.3%

Un 3.5

68.20%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.43

3.13

2.57

2-3 goals

2.40

5.00

2.60

4+ goals

1.94

3.77

4.53

Ov 1.5

2.19

4.40

3.17

Un 1.5

3.43

3.13

2.57

Ov 2.5

1.86

6.63

3.20

Un 2.5

3.78

2.66

2.78

Ov 3.5

1.94

3.77

4.53

Un 3.5

2.70

4.11

2.59

Goal-Goal

2.37

3.02

4.06

No Goal

2.44

6.11

2.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

5.11

3.38

NG+Un 2.5

3.03

6.11

2.23


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Aston Villa vs Southampton

In this section we will analyze the game between Aston Villa and Southampton for Premier League (England), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aston Villa

2.46

2.06

7.9

Draw

3.60

3.83

-1.7

Southampton

2.78

3.94

-10.6

Over 2.5

1.65

2.04

-11.6

Under 2.5

2.27

1.96

7.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aston Villa, Under 2.5 (7.9 %, 7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2 and for Under 2.5 goals 2. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Aston Villa and the red line for guest team, Southampton.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aston Villa

20%

34%

23%

22%

Southampton

35%

36%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.51 goals and Southampton to score 1.38 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.47 goals and Southampton to score 0.86 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Aston Villa to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.20%

0-1

27%

1

19.60%

2-3

49%

2

24.20%

4+

24%

3

24.50%

Ov 1.5

73%

4

15.60%

Un 1.5

27%

5

6.30%

Ov 2.5

49%

6+

2.30%

Un 2.5

51%

Gg

51.10%

Ov 3.5

24%

NoG

48.60%

Un 3.5

76%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.20

3.72

3.62

2-3 goals

2.01

3.93

4.02

4+ goals

2.02

3.78

4.17

Ov 1.5

2.01

3.88

4.07

Un 1.5

2.20

3.72

3.62

Ov 2.5

1.73

7.61

3.43

Un 2.5

2.51

2.60

4.59

Ov 3.5

2.02

3.78

4.17

Un 3.5

2.07

3.85

3.87

Goal-Goal

2.53

2.72

4.22

No Goal

1.72

6.75

3.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

6.05

3.20

NG+Un 2.5

1.90

6.75

3.48


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!