2020 10 30 Segunda Division (Spain)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Almeria vs Girona at 01 November 2020
Fuenlabrada vs Tenerife at 01 November 2020
Leganes vs Mirandes at 01 November 2020
Lugo vs Vallecano at 01 November 2020
Ponferradina vs Sabadell at 01 November 2020
Logrones vs Alcorcon at 02 November 2020
Malaga vs Espanol at 02 November 2020
Sp Gijon vs Castellon at 02 November 2020
Cartagena vs Albacete at 31 October 2020
Las Palmas vs Oviedo at 31 October 2020


Almeria vs Girona

In this section we will analyze the game between Almeria and Girona for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Almeria

2.58

2.11

8.6

Draw

2.86

3.68

-7.8

Girona

3.00

3.94

-8.0

Over 2.5

2.59

2.27

5.4

Under 2.5

1.47

1.79

-12.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Almeria, Over 2.5 (8.6 %, 5.4 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.22 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.82. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Almeria and the red line for guest team, Girona.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Almeria

23%

35%

26%

17%

Girona

37%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Almeria to score 1.06 goals and Girona to score 0.96 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.01 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Almeria to score 1.37 goals and Girona to score 0.79 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the home team Almeria to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

8.3%

0-1

29.3%

1

21.0%

2-3

50.3%

2

26.4%

4+

20.1%

3

23.9%

Ov 1.5

70.4%

4

13.6%

Un 1.5

29.3%

5

5.2%

Ov 2.5

44.0%

6+

1.3%

Un 2.5

55.7%

Gg

48.8%

Ov 3.5

20.1%

NoG

50.9%

Un 3.5

79.6%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.53

3.53

2-3 goals

2.00

3.96

4.06

4+ goals

2.14

3.30

4.37

Ov 1.5

2.03

3.74

4.14

Un 1.5

2.31

3.53

3.53

Ov 2.5

1.75

7.21

3.44

Un 2.5

2.51

2.65

4.46

Ov 3.5

2.14

3.30

4.37

Un 3.5

2.10

3.79

3.85

Goal-Goal

2.58

2.60

4.40

No Goal

1.79

6.13

3.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

5.92

3.25

NG+Un 2.5

1.94

6.13

3.44


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Fuenlabrada vs Tenerife

In this section we will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Tenerife for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fuenlabrada

2.50

1.75

17.1

Draw

2.66

4.08

-13.1

Tenerife

3.40

5.49

-11.2

Over 2.5

2.82

2.18

10.4

Under 2.5

1.40

1.85

-17.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Fuenlabrada, Over 2.5 (17.1 %, 10.4 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.14 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.88. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Fuenlabrada and the red line for guest team, Tenerife.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fuenlabrada

18%

33%

26%

24%

Tenerife

45%

35%

14%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.04 goals and Tenerife to score 0.86 goals. So, they expect a total of 1.9 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.55 goals and Tenerife to score 0.62 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team Fuenlabrada to win by 0.93 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.80%

0-1

28.7%

1

20.90%

2-3

50.8%

2

25.50%

4+

20.5%

3

25.30%

Ov 1.5

71.3%

4

14.00%

Un 1.5

28.7%

5

5.00%

Ov 2.5

45.8%

6+

1.50%

Un 2.5

54.2%

Gg

45.60%

Ov 3.5

20.5%

NoG

54.40%

Un 3.5

79.5%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.94

3.68

4.70

2-3 goals

1.64

4.42

6.12

4+ goals

1.78

4.02

5.26

Ov 1.5

1.68

4.30

5.84

Un 1.5

1.94

3.68

4.70

Ov 2.5

1.48

8.98

4.72

Un 2.5

2.06

2.81

6.30

Ov 3.5

1.78

4.02

5.26

Un 3.5

1.74

4.12

5.52

Goal-Goal

2.24

2.75

5.30

No Goal

1.47

6.97

5.61

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.67

6.69

3.97

NG+Un 2.5

1.62

6.97

4.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Leganes vs Mirandes

In this section we will analyze the game between Leganes and Mirandes for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Leganes

2.06

2.21

-3.3

Draw

2.95

3.61

-6.2

Mirandes

4.03

3.70

2.2

Over 2.5

2.68

2.33

5.6

Under 2.5

1.45

1.75

-11.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Mirandes, Over 2.5 (2.2 %, 5.6 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.28 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.78. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Leganes and the red line for guest team, Mirandes.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Leganes

24%

35%

25%

15%

Mirandes

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leganes to score 1.21 goals and Mirandes to score 0.77 goals. So, they expect a total of 1.98 goals in the game and the home team Leganes to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leganes to score 1.32 goals and Mirandes to score 0.81 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the home team Leganes to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

8.9%

0-1

30.6%

1

21.7%

2-3

50.3%

2

26.7%

4+

19.4%

3

23.6%

Ov 1.5

69.7%

4

13.3%

Un 1.5

30.6%

5

4.9%

Ov 2.5

43.0%

6+

1.2%

Un 2.5

57.3%

Gg

48.3%

Ov 3.5

19.4%

NoG

52.0%

Un 3.5

80.9%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.44

3.36

2-3 goals

2.08

3.90

3.81

4+ goals

2.26

3.23

4.04

Ov 1.5

2.12

3.69

3.87

Un 1.5

2.43

3.44

3.36

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.17

3.21

Un 2.5

2.63

2.63

4.18

Ov 3.5

2.26

3.23

4.04

Un 3.5

2.20

3.71

3.63

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.56

4.24

No Goal

1.90

5.84

3.31

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

5.90

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

5.84

3.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!