2020 10 30 Super League (Greece)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

AEK vs OFI Crete at 01 November 2020
Aris vs Asteras Tripolis at 01 November 2020
Panetolikos vs PAOK at 01 November 2020
Atromitos vs Giannina at 31 October 2020
Lamia vs Panathinaikos at 31 October 2020
Olympiakos vs Apollon at 31 October 2020
Volos NFC vs Larisa at 31 October 2020


AEK vs OFI Crete

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK and OFI Crete for Super League (Greece), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

AEK

1.38

1.79

-16.6

Draw

4.63

3.75

5.1

OFI Crete

7.26

5.81

3.4

Over 2.5

1.74

2.67

-20.0

Under 2.5

2.05

1.60

13.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, OFI Crete, Under 2.5 (5.1 %, 3.4 %, 13.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.41 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.71. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, AEK and the red line for guest team, OFI Crete.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

AEK

22%

37%

20%

21%

OFI Crete

50%

34%

14%

2%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AEK to score 2.1 goals and OFI Crete to score 0.62 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the home team AEK to win by 1.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AEK to score 1.4 goals and OFI Crete to score 0.48 goals. So, we expect a total of 1.88 goals in the game and the home team AEK to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

11.10%

0-1

37.00%

1

25.90%

2-3

48.50%

2

25.50%

4+

14.60%

3

23.00%

Ov 1.5

63.10%

4

10.70%

Un 1.5

37.00%

5

3.40%

Ov 2.5

37.60%

6+

0.50%

Un 2.5

62.50%

Gg

38.80%

Ov 3.5

14.60%

NoG

61.30%

Un 3.5

85.50%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.01

3.33

4.93

2-3 goals

1.76

3.91

5.71

4+ goals

1.45

4.56

11.23

Ov 1.5

1.67

4.04

6.44

Un 1.5

2.01

3.33

4.93

Ov 2.5

1.36

11.75

5.53

Un 2.5

2.19

2.66

5.95

Ov 3.5

1.45

4.56

11.23

Un 3.5

1.86

3.64

5.34

Goal-Goal

2.30

2.49

6.16

No Goal

1.56

5.52

5.57

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.56

8.25

4.19

NG+Un 2.5

1.76

5.52

4.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Aris vs Asteras Tripolis

In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and Asteras Tripolis for Super League (Greece), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aris

1.93

2.74

-15.3

Draw

3.15

3.70

-4.7

Asteras Tripolis

4.20

2.74

12.7

Over 2.5

2.48

2.56

-1.3

Under 2.5

1.51

1.64

-5.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Asteras Tripolis (12.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.32 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.76. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Aris and the red line for guest team, Asteras Tripolis.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aris

41%

24%

17%

18%

Asteras Tripolis

32%

33%

32%

2%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aris to score 1.31 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 0.77 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and the home team Aris to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aris to score 1.13 goals and Asteras Tripolis to score 1.05 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

13.10%

0-1

34.3%

1

21.20%

2-3

46.8%

2

26.50%

4+

18.7%

3

20.30%

Ov 1.5

65.5%

4

12.00%

Un 1.5

34.3%

5

6.30%

Ov 2.5

39.0%

6+

0.40%

Un 2.5

60.8%

Gg

40.10%

Ov 3.5

18.7%

NoG

59.70%

Un 3.5

81.1%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.34

2.62

2.58

2-3 goals

2.82

5.85

2.11

4+ goals

1.57

3.22

18.70

Ov 1.5

2.30

4.75

2.82

Un 1.5

4.34

2.62

2.58

Ov 2.5

1.68

6.72

3.90

Un 2.5

4.61

2.88

2.29

Ov 3.5

1.57

3.22

18.70

Un 3.5

3.31

3.84

2.28

Goal-Goal

2.32

2.91

4.46

No Goal

3.13

4.56

2.17

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

5.53

3.57

NG+Un 2.5

4.00

4.56

1.99


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Panetolikos vs PAOK

In this section we will analyze the game between Panetolikos and PAOK for Super League (Greece), which will take place at 01 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Panetolikos

5.45

2.39

23.5

Draw

3.83

3.50

2.5

PAOK

1.60

3.38

-32.9

Over 2.5

1.94

3.06

-18.9

Under 2.5

1.82

1.49

12.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Panetolikos, Draw, Under 2.5 (23.5 %, 2.5 %, 12.2 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.72 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.58. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Panetolikos and the red line for guest team, PAOK.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Panetolikos

41%

20%

33%

6%

PAOK

49%

34%

2%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 0.73 goals and PAOK to score 1.75 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the guest team Panetolikos to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panetolikos to score 1.04 goals and PAOK to score 0.53 goals. So, we expect a total of 1.57 goals in the game and the home team Panetolikos to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

20.20%

0-1

43.70%

1

23.50%

2-3

44.30%

2

23.50%

4+

12.10%

3

20.80%

Ov 1.5

56.40%

4

5.90%

Un 1.5

43.70%

5

5.20%

Ov 2.5

32.90%

6+

1.00%

Un 2.5

67.20%

Gg

30.10%

Ov 3.5

12.10%

NoG

70.00%

Un 3.5

88.00%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.51

2.16

3.17

2-3 goals

1.48

6.71

5.68

4+ goals

5.26

6.72

1.51

Ov 1.5

1.75

6.71

3.57

Un 1.5

4.51

2.16

3.17

Ov 2.5

2.02

18.28

2.22

Un 2.5

2.62

2.51

4.54

Ov 3.5

5.26

6.72

1.51

Un 3.5

2.22

3.28

4.07

Goal-Goal

2.28

3.58

3.54

No Goal

2.44

3.47

3.32

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.78

13.06

2.76

NG+Un 2.5

2.37

3.47

4.09


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!