In this article we will analyse the following games:
Blackburn vs Middlesbrough at 03 November 2020
Brentford vs Swansea at 03 November 2020
Cardiff vs Barnsley at 03 November 2020
Huddersfield vs Bristol City at 03 November 2020
Norwich vs Millwall at 03 November 2020
Sheffield Weds vs Bournemouth at 03 November 2020
Birmingham vs Wycombe at 04 November 2020
Derby vs QPR at 04 November 2020
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Coventry at 04 November 2020
Reading vs Preston at 04 November 2020
Rotherham vs Luton at 04 November 2020
Watford vs Stoke at 04 November 2020
Blackburn vs Middlesbrough
In this section we will analyze the game between Blackburn and Middlesbrough for Championship (England), which will take place at 03 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Blackburn |
2.37 |
2.22 |
2.9 |
|
Draw |
3.28 |
3.70 |
-3.5 |
|
Middlesbrough |
3.09 |
3.58 |
-4.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.16 |
0.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.86 |
-5.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Blackburn, Over 2.5 (2.9 %, 0.2 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.14 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.88. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book
The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Blackburn and the red line for guest team, Middlesbrough. 
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Blackburn |
23% |
35% |
23% |
19% |
|
Middlesbrough |
35% |
36% |
18% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.26 goals and Middlesbrough to score 1.04 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.37 goals and Middlesbrough to score 1.05 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Prob% |
Goals |
Prob% |
|
0 |
8.20% |
0-1 |
28.9% |
|
1 |
20.70% |
2-3 |
48.5% |
|
2 |
24.80% |
4+ |
22.6% |
|
3 |
23.70% |
Ov 1.5 |
71.1% |
|
4 |
14.70% |
Un 1.5 |
28.9% |
|
5 |
5.90% |
Ov 2.5 |
46.3% |
|
6+ |
2.00% |
Un 2.5 |
53.7% |
|
Gg |
49.80% |
Ov 3.5 |
22.6% |
|
NoG |
50.20% |
Un 3.5 |
77.4% |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.52 |
3.44 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.15 |
3.85 |
3.65 |
|
4+ goals |
2.22 |
3.65 |
3.65 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.78 |
3.65 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.52 |
3.44 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
7.47 |
3.05 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.66 |
2.58 |
4.23 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.22 |
3.65 |
3.65 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.22 |
3.72 |
3.57 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.65 |
3.92 |
|
No Goal |
1.87 |
6.12 |
3.30 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
6.00 |
2.93 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
6.12 |
3.24 |
See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!
Go to Top
Brentford vs Swansea
In this section we will analyze the game between Brentford and Swansea for Championship (England), which will take place at 03 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Brentford |
1.93 |
2.53 |
-12.3 |
|
Draw |
3.44 |
3.68 |
-1.9 |
|
Swansea |
4.15 |
3.01 |
9.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.14 |
-0.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.88 |
-4.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Swansea (9.1 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.12 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.89. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book
The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Brentford and the red line for guest team, Swansea. 
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Brentford |
27% |
34% |
22% |
16% |
|
Swansea |
31% |
35% |
22% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.48 goals and Swansea to score 0.86 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Brentford to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.27 goals and Swansea to score 1.15 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Prob% |
Goals |
Prob% |
|
0 |
8.6% |
0-1 |
28.7% |
|
1 |
20.1% |
2-3 |
48.1% |
|
2 |
24.6% |
4+ |
23.2% |
|
3 |
23.5% |
Ov 1.5 |
71.3% |
|
4 |
14.8% |
Un 1.5 |
28.7% |
|
5 |
6.3% |
Ov 2.5 |
46.7% |
|
6+ |
2.1% |
Un 2.5 |
53.3% |
|
Gg |
50.0% |
Ov 3.5 |
23.2% |
|
NoG |
50.0% |
Un 3.5 |
76.8% |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.71 |
3.34 |
3.02 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.44 |
4.08 |
2.90 |
|
4+ goals |
2.52 |
3.36 |
3.27 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.47 |
3.81 |
3.01 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.71 |
3.34 |
3.02 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.77 |
2.62 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.05 |
2.61 |
3.46 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.52 |
3.36 |
3.27 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.76 |
2.94 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.96 |
2.67 |
3.47 |
|
No Goal |
2.21 |
5.81 |
2.66 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
5.54 |
2.65 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.37 |
5.81 |
2.69 |
See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!
Go to Top
Cardiff vs Barnsley
In this section we will analyze the game between Cardiff and Barnsley for Championship (England), which will take place at 03 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Cardiff |
2.15 |
2.34 |
-3.8 |
|
Draw |
3.30 |
3.51 |
-1.8 |
|
Barnsley |
3.54 |
3.48 |
0.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.22 |
-1.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.82 |
-4.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Barnsley (0.5 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.19 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.84. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book
The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Cardiff and the red line for guest team, Barnsley. 
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Cardiff |
24% |
36% |
22% |
18% |
|
Barnsley |
30% |
44% |
15% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.35 goals and Barnsley to score 0.95 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the home team Cardiff to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.33 goals and Barnsley to score 1.07 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Prob% |
Goals |
Prob% |
|
0 |
7.2% |
0-1 |
28.8% |
|
1 |
21.6% |
2-3 |
49.3% |
|
2 |
26.2% |
4+ |
22.0% |
|
3 |
23.1% |
Ov 1.5 |
71.3% |
|
4 |
15.1% |
Un 1.5 |
28.8% |
|
5 |
5.0% |
Ov 2.5 |
45.1% |
|
6+ |
1.9% |
Un 2.5 |
55.0% |
|
Gg |
53.1% |
Ov 3.5 |
22.0% |
|
NoG |
47.0% |
Un 3.5 |
78.1% |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.62 |
4.00 |
2.72 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.29 |
3.08 |
4.18 |
|
4+ goals |
2.12 |
4.23 |
3.44 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.36 |
3.92 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.62 |
4.00 |
2.72 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.78 |
8.67 |
3.09 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.13 |
2.37 |
3.87 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.12 |
4.23 |
3.44 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.40 |
3.37 |
3.49 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.50 |
4.46 |
|
No Goal |
2.05 |
6.53 |
2.78 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
7.13 |
3.12 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.53 |
2.75 |