2020 11 03 Championship (England)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Blackburn vs Middlesbrough at 03 November 2020
Brentford vs Swansea at 03 November 2020
Cardiff vs Barnsley at 03 November 2020
Huddersfield vs Bristol City at 03 November 2020
Norwich vs Millwall at 03 November 2020
Sheffield Weds vs Bournemouth at 03 November 2020
Birmingham vs Wycombe at 04 November 2020
Derby vs QPR at 04 November 2020
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Coventry at 04 November 2020
Reading vs Preston at 04 November 2020
Rotherham vs Luton at 04 November 2020
Watford vs Stoke at 04 November 2020


Blackburn vs Middlesbrough

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackburn and Middlesbrough for Championship (England), which will take place at 03 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackburn

2.37

2.22

2.9

Draw

3.28

3.70

-3.5

Middlesbrough

3.09

3.58

-4.4

Over 2.5

2.17

2.16

0.2

Under 2.5

1.69

1.86

-5.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Blackburn, Over 2.5 (2.9 %, 0.2 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.14 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.88. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Blackburn and the red line for guest team, Middlesbrough.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackburn

23%

35%

23%

19%

Middlesbrough

35%

36%

18%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.26 goals and Middlesbrough to score 1.04 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.37 goals and Middlesbrough to score 1.05 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

8.20%

0-1

28.9%

1

20.70%

2-3

48.5%

2

24.80%

4+

22.6%

3

23.70%

Ov 1.5

71.1%

4

14.70%

Un 1.5

28.9%

5

5.90%

Ov 2.5

46.3%

6+

2.00%

Un 2.5

53.7%

Gg

49.80%

Ov 3.5

22.6%

NoG

50.20%

Un 3.5

77.4%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.35

3.52

3.44

2-3 goals

2.15

3.85

3.65

4+ goals

2.22

3.65

3.65

Ov 1.5

2.17

3.78

3.65

Un 1.5

2.35

3.52

3.44

Ov 2.5

1.86

7.47

3.05

Un 2.5

2.66

2.58

4.23

Ov 3.5

2.22

3.65

3.65

Un 3.5

2.22

3.72

3.57

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.65

3.92

No Goal

1.87

6.12

3.30

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.03

6.00

2.93

NG+Un 2.5

2.03

6.12

3.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Brentford vs Swansea

In this section we will analyze the game between Brentford and Swansea for Championship (England), which will take place at 03 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brentford

1.93

2.53

-12.3

Draw

3.44

3.68

-1.9

Swansea

4.15

3.01

9.1

Over 2.5

2.12

2.14

-0.4

Under 2.5

1.72

1.88

-4.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swansea (9.1 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.12 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.89. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Brentford and the red line for guest team, Swansea.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brentford

27%

34%

22%

16%

Swansea

31%

35%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.48 goals and Swansea to score 0.86 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Brentford to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brentford to score 1.27 goals and Swansea to score 1.15 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

8.6%

0-1

28.7%

1

20.1%

2-3

48.1%

2

24.6%

4+

23.2%

3

23.5%

Ov 1.5

71.3%

4

14.8%

Un 1.5

28.7%

5

6.3%

Ov 2.5

46.7%

6+

2.1%

Un 2.5

53.3%

Gg

50.0%

Ov 3.5

23.2%

NoG

50.0%

Un 3.5

76.8%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.71

3.34

3.02

2-3 goals

2.44

4.08

2.90

4+ goals

2.52

3.36

3.27

Ov 1.5

2.47

3.81

3.01

Un 1.5

2.71

3.34

3.02

Ov 2.5

2.12

6.77

2.62

Un 2.5

3.05

2.61

3.46

Ov 3.5

2.52

3.36

3.27

Un 3.5

2.53

3.76

2.94

Goal-Goal

2.96

2.67

3.47

No Goal

2.21

5.81

2.66

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.26

5.54

2.65

NG+Un 2.5

2.37

5.81

2.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Cardiff vs Barnsley

In this section we will analyze the game between Cardiff and Barnsley for Championship (England), which will take place at 03 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cardiff

2.15

2.34

-3.8

Draw

3.30

3.51

-1.8

Barnsley

3.54

3.48

0.5

Over 2.5

2.17

2.22

-1.0

Under 2.5

1.69

1.82

-4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Barnsley (0.5 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.19 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.84. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Cardiff and the red line for guest team, Barnsley.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cardiff

24%

36%

22%

18%

Barnsley

30%

44%

15%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.35 goals and Barnsley to score 0.95 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the home team Cardiff to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.33 goals and Barnsley to score 1.07 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.2%

0-1

28.8%

1

21.6%

2-3

49.3%

2

26.2%

4+

22.0%

3

23.1%

Ov 1.5

71.3%

4

15.1%

Un 1.5

28.8%

5

5.0%

Ov 2.5

45.1%

6+

1.9%

Un 2.5

55.0%

Gg

53.1%

Ov 3.5

22.0%

NoG

47.0%

Un 3.5

78.1%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

4.00

2.72

2-3 goals

2.29

3.08

4.18

4+ goals

2.12

4.23

3.44

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.36

3.92

Un 1.5

2.62

4.00

2.72

Ov 2.5

1.78

8.67

3.09

Un 2.5

3.13

2.37

3.87

Ov 3.5

2.12

4.23

3.44

Un 3.5

2.40

3.37

3.49

Goal-Goal

2.66

2.50

4.46

No Goal

2.05

6.53

2.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

7.13

3.12

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

6.53

2.75


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!