2020 11 03 League One (England)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster at 03 November 2020
Blackpool vs Wigan at 03 November 2020
Bristol Rvs vs Peterboro at 03 November 2020
Charlton vs Fleetwood Town at 03 November 2020
Crewe vs Gillingham at 03 November 2020
Lincoln vs Portsmouth at 03 November 2020
Northampton vs Milton Keynes Dons at 03 November 2020
Oxford vs Rochdale at 03 November 2020
Plymouth vs Swindon at 03 November 2020
Shrewsbury vs Burton at 03 November 2020
Sunderland vs Ipswich at 03 November 2020


AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster

In this section we will analyze the game between AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster for League One (England), which will take place at 03 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

AFC Wimbledon

3.28

2.67

7.0

Draw

3.36

3.64

-2.3

Doncaster

2.18

2.86

-10.9

Over 2.5

2.04

2.08

-0.9

Under 2.5

1.77

1.92

-4.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at AFC Wimbledon (7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.17 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.85. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, AFC Wimbledon and the red line for guest team, Doncaster.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

AFC Wimbledon

27%

34%

23%

16%

Doncaster

26%

37%

25%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 1.03 goals and Doncaster to score 1.37 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the guest team AFC Wimbledon to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AFC Wimbledon to score 1.27 goals and Doncaster to score 1.21 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.20%

0-1

26.3%

1

19.10%

2-3

50.1%

2

25.70%

4+

23.6%

3

24.40%

Ov 1.5

73.7%

4

15.40%

Un 1.5

26.3%

5

6.50%

Ov 2.5

48.0%

6+

1.70%

Un 2.5

52.0%

Gg

53.60%

Ov 3.5

23.6%

NoG

46.40%

Un 3.5

76.4%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.89

3.65

2.63

2-3 goals

2.66

3.94

2.69

4+ goals

2.46

3.11

3.69

Ov 1.5

2.60

3.63

2.95

Un 1.5

2.89

3.65

2.63

Ov 2.5

2.15

6.32

2.65

Un 2.5

3.42

2.61

3.08

Ov 3.5

2.46

3.11

3.69

Un 3.5

2.74

3.84

2.67

Goal-Goal

2.95

2.64

3.55

No Goal

2.40

6.44

2.33

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

5.38

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.59

6.44

2.33


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Blackpool vs Wigan

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackpool and Wigan for League One (England), which will take place at 03 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackpool

1.54

1.87

-11.5

Draw

4.01

3.98

0.2

Wigan

6.02

4.65

4.9

Over 2.5

1.95

2.09

-3.4

Under 2.5

1.85

1.92

-2.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Wigan (0.2 %, 4.9 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.18 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.85. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Blackpool and the red line for guest team, Wigan.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackpool

16%

35%

28%

20%

Wigan

40%

35%

15%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.81 goals and Wigan to score 0.68 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Blackpool to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.53 goals and Wigan to score 0.95 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Blackpool to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

6.60%

0-1

26.2%

1

19.60%

2-3

51.1%

2

26.10%

4+

22.8%

3

25.00%

Ov 1.5

73.9%

4

14.90%

Un 1.5

26.2%

5

5.90%

Ov 2.5

47.8%

6+

2.00%

Un 2.5

52.3%

Gg

50.30%

Ov 3.5

22.8%

NoG

49.80%

Un 3.5

77.3%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.90

3.97

4.52

2-3 goals

1.73

4.15

5.49

4+ goals

2.24

3.68

3.56

Ov 1.5

1.86

3.99

4.71

Un 1.5

1.90

3.97

4.52

Ov 2.5

1.68

7.71

3.62

Un 2.5

2.08

2.77

6.30

Ov 3.5

2.24

3.68

3.56

Un 3.5

1.79

4.09

5.12

Goal-Goal

2.48

2.72

4.37

No Goal

1.50

7.55

4.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.87

6.13

3.30

NG+Un 2.5

1.59

7.55

4.82


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Bristol Rvs vs Peterboro

In this section we will analyze the game between Bristol Rvs and Peterboro for League One (England), which will take place at 03 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bristol Rvs

4.26

2.78

12.5

Draw

3.59

3.73

-1.0

Peterboro

1.82

2.69

-17.8

Over 2.5

1.96

2.00

-1.0

Under 2.5

1.84

2.00

-4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol Rvs (12.5 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.09 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.92. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Bristol Rvs and the red line for guest team, Peterboro.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bristol Rvs

29%

31%

24%

16%

Peterboro

24%

38%

26%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bristol Rvs to score 0.87 goals and Peterboro to score 1.6 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the guest team Bristol Rvs to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bristol Rvs to score 1.27 goals and Peterboro to score 1.27 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.00%

0-1

25.30%

1

18.30%

2-3

49.20%

2

24.70%

4+

25.50%

3

24.50%

Ov 1.5

74.70%

4

16.20%

Un 1.5

25.30%

5

7.20%

Ov 2.5

50.00%

6+

2.10%

Un 2.5

50.00%

Gg

54.00%

Ov 3.5

25.50%

NoG

46.00%

Un 3.5

74.50%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.42

3.61

2.32

2-3 goals

2.67

4.24

2.56

4+ goals

2.48

3.11

3.64

Ov 1.5

2.60

3.77

2.85

Un 1.5

3.42

3.61

2.32

Ov 2.5

2.16

6.10

2.67

Un 2.5

3.85

2.69

2.72

Ov 3.5

2.48

3.11

3.64

Un 3.5

2.89

4.01

2.48

Goal-Goal

2.81

2.73

3.60

No Goal

2.72

6.57

2.08

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.21

5.17

2.83

NG+Un 2.5

2.95

6.57

2.09


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!