2020 11 03 League Two (England)



Full-Divisions-Analysis.utf8

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bolton vs Mansfield at 03 November 2020
Bradford vs Southend at 03 November 2020
Cambridge vs Salford at 03 November 2020
Carlisle vs Newport County at 03 November 2020
Colchester vs Stevenage at 03 November 2020
Forest Green vs Leyton Orient at 03 November 2020
Grimsby vs Barrow at 03 November 2020
Harrogate vs Tranmere at 03 November 2020
Morecambe vs Exeter at 03 November 2020
Oldham vs Cheltenham at 03 November 2020
Walsall vs Crawley Town at 03 November 2020


Bolton vs Mansfield

In this section we will analyze the game between Bolton and Mansfield for League Two (England), which will take place at 03 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bolton

2.66

2.88

-2.9

Draw

3.25

3.66

-3.4

Mansfield

2.63

2.63

0.0

Over 2.5

2.03

2.13

-2.3

Under 2.5

1.77

1.88

-3.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.02 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.98. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Bolton and the red line for guest team, Mansfield.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bolton

30%

33%

24%

13%

Mansfield

27%

36%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.2 goals and Mansfield to score 1.21 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.19 goals and Mansfield to score 1.25 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

8.2%

0-1

27.8%

1

19.6%

2-3

49.3%

2

25.3%

4+

23.0%

3

24.0%

Ov 1.5

72.3%

4

14.8%

Un 1.5

27.8%

5

6.4%

Ov 2.5

47.0%

6+

1.8%

Un 2.5

53.1%

Gg

51.0%

Ov 3.5

23.0%

NoG

49.1%

Un 3.5

77.1%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.16

3.39

2.57

2-3 goals

2.69

4.21

2.55

4+ goals

3.07

3.07

2.88

Ov 1.5

2.80

3.77

2.65

Un 1.5

3.16

3.39

2.57

Ov 2.5

2.42

6.27

2.34

Un 2.5

3.49

2.67

2.95

Ov 3.5

3.07

3.07

2.88

Un 3.5

2.85

3.87

2.56

Goal-Goal

3.19

2.66

3.23

No Goal

2.64

5.99

2.20

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.46

5.24

2.49

NG+Un 2.5

2.72

5.99

2.30


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Bradford vs Southend

In this section we will analyze the game between Bradford and Southend for League Two (England), which will take place at 03 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bradford

1.58

2.13

-16.3

Draw

3.92

3.80

0.8

Southend

5.74

3.75

9.2

Over 2.5

1.92

1.98

-1.6

Under 2.5

1.87

2.02

-4.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Southend (0.8 %, 9.2 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.88 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.14. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Bradford and the red line for guest team, Southend.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bradford

20%

34%

25%

21%

Southend

32%

37%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.8 goals and Southend to score 0.71 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Bradford to win by 1.09 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.47 goals and Southend to score 1.09 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Bradford to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

6.30%

0-1

24.60%

1

18.30%

2-3

49.90%

2

24.70%

4+

25.50%

3

25.20%

Ov 1.5

75.40%

4

16.40%

Un 1.5

24.60%

5

6.90%

Ov 2.5

50.70%

6+

2.20%

Un 2.5

49.30%

Gg

54.50%

Ov 3.5

25.50%

NoG

45.50%

Un 3.5

74.50%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.24

3.90

3.37

2-3 goals

2.07

3.96

3.78

4+ goals

2.14

3.45

4.11

Ov 1.5

2.09

3.77

3.89

Un 1.5

2.24

3.90

3.37

Ov 2.5

1.82

6.85

3.29

Un 2.5

2.58

2.61

4.36

Ov 3.5

2.14

3.45

4.11

Un 3.5

2.12

3.94

3.63

Goal-Goal

2.57

2.72

4.10

No Goal

1.76

7.22

3.40

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.98

5.66

3.15

NG+Un 2.5

1.92

7.22

3.25


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Cambridge vs Salford

In this section we will analyze the game between Cambridge and Salford for League Two (England), which will take place at 03 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cambridge

2.36

2.56

-3.3

Draw

3.30

3.65

-2.9

Salford

2.96

2.99

-0.3

Over 2.5

2.00

2.08

-1.9

Under 2.5

1.79

1.92

-3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.98 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.02. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Cambridge and the red line for guest team, Salford.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cambridge

25%

37%

22%

16%

Salford

29%

35%

22%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.31 goals and Salford to score 1.12 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.29 goals and Salford to score 1.19 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.30%

0-1

26.9%

1

19.60%

2-3

49.2%

2

25.20%

4+

24.0%

3

24.00%

Ov 1.5

73.2%

4

15.40%

Un 1.5

26.9%

5

6.50%

Ov 2.5

48.0%

6+

2.10%

Un 2.5

52.1%

Gg

53.10%

Ov 3.5

24.0%

NoG

47.00%

Un 3.5

76.1%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.51

3.68

3.02

2-3 goals

2.56

3.78

2.89

4+ goals

2.58

3.38

3.16

Ov 1.5

2.57

3.64

2.98

Un 1.5

2.51

3.68

3.02

Ov 2.5

2.19

6.76

2.53

Un 2.5

3.01

2.57

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.58

3.38

3.16

Un 3.5

2.55

3.75

2.94

Goal-Goal

3.09

2.64

3.36

No Goal

2.14

6.44

2.66

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.33

5.65

2.54

NG+Un 2.5

2.26

6.44

2.70


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!