Predictions for 03 Nov 2020



 

 

Before continue, please read disclaimer.


Reading vs Preston – Based on the analysis for Championship (England)

Books value them evenly but we estimate that home has a very greater advantage in this game
I think home team will score at least one goal, 2+ is more probable. The guest team has 75% chance to score 0 or 1 goals.
The home team has a better chance to score 2+ goals (35%) than guest team (17%)
In all scenarios the home team has great value, so I will bet on

home win @ 2,55 in stoiximan


Watford vs Stoke – Based on the analysis for Championship (England)

In this game we have value on home win and over 2.5 goals.
I think home team will score at least one goal. The guest team has 77% chance to score 0 or 1 goals.
If the game ends with 0-2 goals the home team loses all its value.
To exploit value from home and over 2.5 and to cover 1-1 I will bet

1X + Over 1.5 goals @ 2.00 in stoiximan


Lincoln vs Portsmouth – Based on the analysis for League One (England)

In this game we have value on home win.
I think home team will score at least one goal. The guest team has 70% chance to score 0 or 1 goals.
I think there will be 2-3 goals in this game, maybe 1-1 is the outcome after all
I will bet

1X + Over 1.5 goals @ 2.15 in stoiximan


 

Informative tables, optimal equations, game’s scenarios, real-life examples!


Sunderland vs Ipswich – Based on the analysis for League One (England)

In this game we have value on guest team and over 2.5 goals.
The two teams are not very different in terms of scoring ability.
The bookmakers offer X2 + Over 1.5 goals @ 3.00 and I estimate that
the fair odds for that is about 2.00 so I will bet

X2 + Over 1.5 goals @ 3.00 in stoiximan


Bristol Rvs vs Peterboro – Based on the analysis for League One (England)

The estimated expected goals for this are absolute equal.
I think both teams will score at least 1 goal.
The value difference is very big for the 1X + Over 1.5 goals.
So I will risk to see if guest team scores only one.

1X + Over 1.5 goals @ 2.75 in stoiximan


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