2020 11 05 Bundesliga (Germany)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Werder Bremen vs FC Koln at 06 November 2020
Augsburg vs Hertha at 07 November 2020
Dortmund vs Bayern Munich at 07 November 2020
Mainz vs Schalke 04 at 07 November 2020
RB Leipzig vs Freiburg at 07 November 2020
Stuttgart vs Ein Frankfurt at 07 November 2020
Union Berlin vs Bielefeld at 07 November 2020
Leverkusen vs M’gladbach at 08 November 2020
Wolfsburg vs Hoffenheim at 08 November 2020


Werder Bremen vs FC Koln

In this section we will analyze the game between Werder Bremen and FC Koln for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place at 06 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Werder Bremen

2.42

1.79

14.5

Draw

3.50

4.17

-4.6

FC Koln

2.91

5.00

-14.4

Over 2.5

1.72

1.68

1.4

Under 2.5

2.16

2.48

-6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Werder Bremen, Over 2.5 (14.5 %, 1.4 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.41 and for Under 2.5 goals 3.44. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Werder Bremen and the red line for guest team, FC Koln.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Werder Bremen

14%

28%

22%

35%

FC Koln

28%

46%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 1.48 goals and FC Koln to score 1.3 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Werder Bremen to score 1.77 goals and FC Koln to score 1.08 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the home team Werder Bremen to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

4.00%

0-1

18.5%

1

14.50%

2-3

48.0%

2

21.80%

4+

33.4%

3

26.20%

Ov 1.5

81.4%

4

22.20%

Un 1.5

18.5%

5

8.20%

Ov 2.5

59.6%

6+

3.00%

Un 2.5

40.3%

Gg

61.60%

Ov 3.5

33.4%

NoG

38.30%

Un 3.5

66.5%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.34

4.62

2.80

2-3 goals

1.84

3.72

5.33

4+ goals

1.53

4.77

7.42

Ov 1.5

1.70

4.09

6.03

Un 1.5

2.34

4.62

2.80

Ov 2.5

1.43

8.51

5.47

Un 2.5

2.84

2.38

4.38

Ov 3.5

1.53

4.77

7.42

Un 3.5

1.96

3.93

4.26

Goal-Goal

1.92

3.10

6.42

No Goal

1.61

9.58

3.65

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.52

6.96

5.07

NG+Un 2.5

1.93

9.58

2.98


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Augsburg vs Hertha

In this section we will analyze the game between Augsburg and Hertha for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Augsburg

2.90

2.01

15.3

Draw

3.57

4.08

-3.5

Hertha

2.42

3.89

-15.6

Over 2.5

1.75

1.78

-1.0

Under 2.5

2.14

2.29

-3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Augsburg (15.3 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.49 and for Under 2.5 goals 3.04.
Also, from our division observations, we have the advise to consider betting on draw (-X-) or to avoid betting on home or away win.We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Augsburg and the red line for guest team, Hertha.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Augsburg

20%

32%

16%

32%

Hertha

34%

32%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Augsburg to score 1.28 goals and Hertha to score 1.47 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Augsburg to score 1.61 goals and Hertha to score 1.13 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Augsburg to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

6.70%

0-1

24.0%

1

17.30%

2-3

45.1%

2

19.70%

4+

31.0%

3

25.40%

Ov 1.5

76.1%

4

18.00%

Un 1.5

24.0%

5

8.70%

Ov 2.5

56.4%

6+

4.30%

Un 2.5

43.7%

Gg

52.90%

Ov 3.5

31.0%

NoG

47.20%

Un 3.5

69.1%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.20

3.58

3.75

2-3 goals

2.07

4.42

3.44

4+ goals

1.81

4.08

4.92

Ov 1.5

1.96

4.28

3.92

Un 1.5

2.20

3.58

3.75

Ov 2.5

1.69

7.42

3.66

Un 2.5

2.66

2.59

4.20

Ov 3.5

1.81

4.08

4.92

Un 3.5

2.11

4.09

3.54

Goal-Goal

2.37

2.97

4.13

No Goal

1.72

7.04

3.63

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

5.62

3.34

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

7.04

3.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

In this section we will analyze the game between Dortmund and Bayern Munich for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dortmund

4.16

1.61

38.1

Draw

4.41

4.59

-0.9

Bayern Munich

1.76

6.29

-40.9

Over 2.5

1.34

1.69

-15.5

Under 2.5

3.15

2.44

9.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Dortmund, Under 2.5 (38.1 %, 9.2 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.43 and for Under 2.5 goals 3.33. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Dortmund and the red line for guest team, Bayern Munich.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dortmund

12%

26%

26%

36%

Bayern Munich

36%

40%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dortmund to score 1.22 goals and Bayern Munich to score 2.35 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.56 goals in the game and the guest team Dortmund to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dortmund to score 1.85 goals and Bayern Munich to score 0.94 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and the home team Dortmund to win by 0.91 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

4.5%

0-1

19.0%

1

14.5%

2-3

50.4%

2

21.9%

4+

30.6%

3

28.5%

Ov 1.5

81.0%

4

20.4%

Un 1.5

19.0%

5

7.7%

Ov 2.5

59.1%

6+

2.5%

Un 2.5

40.9%

Gg

55.8%

Ov 3.5

30.6%

NoG

44.2%

Un 3.5

69.4%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.00

4.22

3.80

2-3 goals

1.55

4.80

6.90

4+ goals

1.51

4.50

8.50

Ov 1.5

1.53

4.68

7.43

Un 1.5

2.00

4.22

3.80

Ov 2.5

1.36

8.69

6.72

Un 2.5

2.18

2.73

5.76

Ov 3.5

1.51

4.50

8.50

Un 3.5

1.65

4.63

5.64

Goal-Goal

1.82

3.23

7.06

No Goal

1.39

9.82

5.53

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.48

6.66

5.73

NG+Un 2.5

1.62

9.82

4.28


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!