2020 11 05 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Cardiff vs Bristol City at 06 November 2020
Birmingham vs Bournemouth at 07 November 2020
Blackburn vs QPR at 07 November 2020
Brentford vs Middlesbrough at 07 November 2020
Derby vs Barnsley at 07 November 2020
Huddersfield vs Luton at 07 November 2020
Norwich vs Swansea at 07 November 2020
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Wycombe at 07 November 2020
Reading vs Stoke at 07 November 2020
Rotherham vs Preston at 07 November 2020
Sheffield Weds vs Millwall at 07 November 2020
Watford vs Coventry at 07 November 2020


Cardiff vs Bristol City

In this section we will analyze the game between Cardiff and Bristol City for Championship (England), which will take place at 06 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cardiff

2.24

2.46

-4.0

Draw

3.37

3.55

-1.5

Bristol City

3.28

3.22

0.6

Over 2.5

2.11

2.19

-1.7

Under 2.5

1.75

1.84

-2.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol City (0.6 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.16 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.86. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Cardiff and the red line for guest team, Bristol City.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cardiff

25%

36%

23%

16%

Bristol City

29%

41%

18%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.34 goals and Bristol City to score 1.02 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Cardiff to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.29 goals and Bristol City to score 1.12 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.3%

0-1

28.1%

1

20.8%

2-3

49.6%

2

26.2%

4+

22.2%

3

23.4%

Ov 1.5

71.8%

4

14.9%

Un 1.5

28.1%

5

5.5%

Ov 2.5

45.6%

6+

1.8%

Un 2.5

54.3%

Gg

53.2%

Ov 3.5

22.2%

NoG

46.7%

Un 3.5

77.7%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.85

2.75

2-3 goals

2.42

3.31

3.52

4+ goals

2.36

3.70

3.26

Ov 1.5

2.40

3.42

3.44

Un 1.5

2.65

3.85

2.75

Ov 2.5

1.96

7.60

2.80

Un 2.5

3.16

2.43

3.67

Ov 3.5

2.36

3.70

3.26

Un 3.5

2.50

3.48

3.20

Goal-Goal

2.84

2.53

3.94

No Goal

2.14

6.40

2.65

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

6.37

2.83

NG+Un 2.5

2.28

6.40

2.66


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Birmingham vs Bournemouth

In this section we will analyze the game between Birmingham and Bournemouth for Championship (England), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Birmingham

3.79

2.40

15.3

Draw

3.24

3.58

-2.9

Bournemouth

2.10

3.29

-17.2

Over 2.5

2.33

2.24

1.7

Under 2.5

1.61

1.81

-6.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Birmingham, Over 2.5 (15.3 %, 1.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.21 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.83. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Birmingham and the red line for guest team, Bournemouth.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Birmingham

29%

32%

19%

20%

Bournemouth

33%

41%

13%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Birmingham to score 0.87 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.32 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and the guest team Birmingham to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Birmingham to score 1.3 goals and Bournemouth to score 1.06 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

9.40%

0-1

31.90%

1

22.50%

2-3

45.50%

2

23.20%

4+

22.50%

3

22.30%

Ov 1.5

68.00%

4

14.90%

Un 1.5

31.90%

5

5.00%

Ov 2.5

44.80%

6+

2.60%

Un 2.5

55.10%

Gg

47.90%

Ov 3.5

22.50%

NoG

52.00%

Un 3.5

77.40%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.01

3.39

2.68

2-3 goals

2.23

3.40

3.89

4+ goals

2.10

4.50

3.31

Ov 1.5

2.19

3.70

3.68

Un 1.5

3.01

3.39

2.68

Ov 2.5

1.79

8.96

3.03

Un 2.5

3.30

2.42

3.53

Ov 3.5

2.10

4.50

3.31

Un 3.5

2.50

3.39

3.28

Goal-Goal

2.59

2.60

4.35

No Goal

2.24

5.53

2.68

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

6.90

3.14

NG+Un 2.5

2.50

5.53

2.67


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Blackburn vs QPR

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackburn and QPR for Championship (England), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackburn

1.92

2.00

-2.1

Draw

3.63

3.86

-1.6

QPR

3.94

4.13

-1.2

Over 2.5

1.79

2.09

-8.0

Under 2.5

2.06

1.92

3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (3.5 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.07 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.93. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Blackburn and the red line for guest team, QPR.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackburn

19%

36%

25%

20%

QPR

38%

34%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.68 goals and QPR to score 1 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.47 goals and QPR to score 1 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.10%

0-1

26.9%

1

19.80%

2-3

50.0%

2

25.30%

4+

22.9%

3

24.70%

Ov 1.5

72.9%

4

14.90%

Un 1.5

26.9%

5

6.20%

Ov 2.5

47.6%

6+

1.80%

Un 2.5

52.2%

Gg

50.40%

Ov 3.5

22.9%

NoG

49.40%

Un 3.5

76.9%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.99

3.79

4.27

2-3 goals

1.96

4.17

4.00

4+ goals

2.12

3.37

4.32

Ov 1.5

2.01

3.88

4.10

Un 1.5

1.99

3.79

4.27

Ov 2.5

1.78

7.00

3.40

Un 2.5

2.27

2.73

5.17

Ov 3.5

2.12

3.37

4.32

Un 3.5

1.97

4.03

4.09

Goal-Goal

2.62

2.68

4.06

No Goal

1.61

6.96

4.22

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.65

3.10

NG+Un 2.5

1.75

6.96

3.98


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!