2020 11 05 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Aldershot vs Notts County at 07 November 2020
Wealdstone vs Altrincham at 07 November 2020


Aldershot vs Notts County

In this section we will analyze the game between Aldershot and Notts County for Conference (England), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aldershot

3.23

2.99

2.5

Draw

3.57

3.68

-0.8

Notts County

2.07

2.54

-8.9

Over 2.5

1.78

2.04

-7.2

Under 2.5

2.03

1.96

1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aldershot, Under 2.5 (2.5 %, 1.8 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.02 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.98. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Aldershot and the red line for guest team, Notts County.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aldershot

27%

38%

22%

13%

Notts County

26%

34%

24%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aldershot to score 1.12 goals and Notts County to score 1.55 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and the guest team Aldershot to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aldershot to score 1.2 goals and Notts County to score 1.32 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.00%

0-1

26.00%

1

19.00%

2-3

49.60%

2

25.10%

4+

24.70%

3

24.50%

Ov 1.5

74.30%

4

15.90%

Un 1.5

26.00%

5

6.70%

Ov 2.5

49.20%

6+

2.10%

Un 2.5

51.10%

Gg

54.30%

Ov 3.5

24.70%

NoG

46.00%

Un 3.5

75.60%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.68

3.71

2.80

2-3 goals

3.06

3.84

2.42

4+ goals

3.25

3.34

2.55

Ov 1.5

3.12

3.66

2.46

Un 1.5

2.68

3.71

2.80

Ov 2.5

2.69

6.65

2.09

Un 2.5

3.36

2.57

3.19

Ov 3.5

3.25

3.34

2.55

Un 3.5

2.92

3.80

2.54

Goal-Goal

3.62

2.67

2.86

No Goal

2.49

6.57

2.24

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.76

5.59

2.18

NG+Un 2.5

2.51

6.57

2.39


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Wealdstone vs Altrincham

In this section we will analyze the game between Wealdstone and Altrincham for Conference (England), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wealdstone

2.37

2.73

-5.6

Draw

3.58

3.70

-0.9

Altrincham

2.74

2.74

0.0

Over 2.5

1.73

2.05

-9.0

Under 2.5

2.13

1.95

4.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (4.3 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.03 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.97. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Wealdstone and the red line for guest team, Altrincham.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wealdstone

28%

34%

23%

15%

Altrincham

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.45 goals and Altrincham to score 1.31 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.25 goals and Altrincham to score 1.25 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.80%

0-1

26.80%

1

19.00%

2-3

48.70%

2

24.50%

4+

24.60%

3

24.20%

Ov 1.5

73.30%

4

15.50%

Un 1.5

26.80%

5

6.90%

Ov 2.5

48.80%

6+

2.20%

Un 2.5

51.30%

Gg

52.10%

Ov 3.5

24.60%

NoG

48.00%

Un 3.5

75.50%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.91

3.44

2.73

2-3 goals

2.63

4.20

2.62

4+ goals

2.76

3.24

3.04

Ov 1.5

2.68

3.82

2.75

Un 1.5

2.91

3.44

2.73

Ov 2.5

2.31

6.42

2.43

Un 2.5

3.31

2.64

3.13

Ov 3.5

2.76

3.24

3.04

Un 3.5

2.73

3.89

2.66

Goal-Goal

3.08

2.71

3.26

No Goal

2.44

6.15

2.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.40

5.33

2.53

NG+Un 2.5

2.56

6.15

2.42


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


Go to Top


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