2020 11 05 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

For Sittard vs Zwolle at 06 November 2020
Den Haag vs Twente at 07 November 2020
VVV Venlo vs Heracles at 07 November 2020
Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam at 07 November 2020
Feyenoord vs Groningen at 08 November 2020
Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar at 08 November 2020
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II at 08 November 2020
Utrecht vs Ajax at 08 November 2020
Vitesse vs FC Emmen at 08 November 2020


For Sittard vs Zwolle

In this section we will analyze the game between For Sittard and Zwolle for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place at 06 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

For Sittard

2.76

2.50

3.8

Draw

3.62

3.45

1.4

Zwolle

2.38

3.23

-11.1

Over 2.5

1.64

2.03

-11.7

Under 2.5

2.28

1.97

6.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at For Sittard, Draw, Under 2.5 (3.8 %, 1.4 %, 6.9 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.81 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.23. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, For Sittard and the red line for guest team, Zwolle.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

For Sittard

22%

38%

20%

20%

Zwolle

22%

48%

19%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.37 goals and Zwolle to score 1.53 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.9 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.37 goals and Zwolle to score 1.19 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

5.0%

0-1

24.10%

1

19.1%

2-3

50.20%

2

26.6%

4+

25.90%

3

23.6%

Ov 1.5

76.10%

4

17.6%

Un 1.5

24.10%

5

6.0%

Ov 2.5

49.50%

6+

2.3%

Un 2.5

50.70%

Gg

60.5%

Ov 3.5

25.90%

NoG

39.7%

Un 3.5

74.30%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.84

4.82

2.27

2-3 goals

2.74

2.77

3.64

4+ goals

1.96

4.32

3.87

Ov 1.5

2.42

3.16

3.71

Un 1.5

2.84

4.82

2.27

Ov 2.5

1.83

8.25

3.02

Un 2.5

3.93

2.19

3.45

Ov 3.5

1.96

4.32

3.87

Un 3.5

2.77

3.22

3.05

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.51

4.38

No Goal

2.28

7.94

2.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

7.07

3.07

NG+Un 2.5

2.53

7.94

2.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Den Haag vs Twente

In this section we will analyze the game between Den Haag and Twente for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Den Haag

3.66

3.40

2.1

Draw

3.73

3.86

-0.9

Twente

1.94

2.24

-6.9

Over 2.5

1.74

1.51

8.8

Under 2.5

2.11

2.95

-13.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Den Haag, Over 2.5 (2.1 %, 8.8 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.39 and for Under 2.5 goals 3.56. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Den Haag and the red line for guest team, Twente.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Den Haag

23%

32%

25%

20%

Twente

11%

36%

24%

29%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Den Haag to score 1.06 goals and Twente to score 1.69 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the guest team Den Haag to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Den Haag to score 1.42 goals and Twente to score 1.72 goals. So, we expect a total of 3.14 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

2.40%

0-1

14.1%

1

11.70%

2-3

45.2%

2

19.70%

4+

40.8%

3

25.50%

Ov 1.5

86.0%

4

22.70%

Un 1.5

14.1%

5

12.10%

Ov 2.5

66.3%

6+

6.00%

Un 2.5

33.8%

Gg

69.00%

Ov 3.5

40.8%

NoG

31.10%

Un 3.5

59.3%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.15

5.88

1.70

2-3 goals

3.30

3.90

2.27

4+ goals

3.32

3.43

2.46

Ov 1.5

3.31

3.66

2.36

Un 1.5

4.15

5.88

1.70

Ov 2.5

2.83

5.57

2.14

Un 2.5

5.63

2.41

2.45

Ov 3.5

3.32

3.43

2.46

Un 3.5

3.47

4.24

2.10

Goal-Goal

3.25

2.94

2.84

No Goal

3.79

12.96

1.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.71

4.82

2.36

NG+Un 2.5

3.70

12.96

1.61


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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VVV Venlo vs Heracles

In this section we will analyze the game between VVV Venlo and Heracles for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

VVV Venlo

2.93

2.49

6.0

Draw

3.56

3.65

-0.7

Heracles

2.30

3.09

-11.1

Over 2.5

1.74

1.91

-5.1

Under 2.5

2.13

2.10

0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at VVV Venlo, Under 2.5 (6 %, 0.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.71 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.41. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, VVV Venlo and the red line for guest team, Heracles.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

VVV Venlo

23%

34%

22%

21%

Heracles

22%

44%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) VVV Venlo to score 1.25 goals and Heracles to score 1.5 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) VVV Venlo to score 1.4 goals and Heracles to score 1.25 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.15 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

5.20%

0-1

23.0%

1

17.80%

2-3

48.8%

2

24.50%

4+

28.2%

3

24.30%

Ov 1.5

77.0%

4

18.30%

Un 1.5

23.0%

5

7.10%

Ov 2.5

52.5%

6+

2.80%

Un 2.5

47.5%

Gg

59.70%

Ov 3.5

28.2%

NoG

40.30%

Un 3.5

71.8%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.03

4.42

2.25

2-3 goals

2.55

3.25

3.32

4+ goals

2.09

3.92

3.76

Ov 1.5

2.36

3.47

3.47

Un 1.5

3.03

4.42

2.25

Ov 2.5

1.89

7.29

3.00

Un 2.5

3.83

2.35

3.19

Ov 3.5

2.09

3.92

3.76

Un 3.5

2.69

3.55

2.88

Goal-Goal

2.58

2.69

4.15

No Goal

2.36

7.75

2.24

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.94

6.21

3.10

NG+Un 2.5

2.62

7.75

2.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!