2020 11 05 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Elche vs Celta at 06 November 2020
Ath Madrid vs Cadiz at 07 November 2020
Barcelona vs Betis at 07 November 2020
Huesca vs Eibar at 07 November 2020
Sevilla vs Osasuna at 07 November 2020
Getafe vs Villarreal at 08 November 2020
Levante vs Alaves at 08 November 2020
Sociedad vs Granada at 08 November 2020
Valencia vs Real Madrid at 08 November 2020
Valladolid vs Ath Bilbao at 08 November 2020


Elche vs Celta

In this section we will analyze the game between Elche and Celta for La Liga (Spain), which will take place at 06 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Elche

3.63

1.81

27.7

Draw

3.24

4.31

-7.7

Celta

2.20

4.67

-24.0

Over 2.5

2.51

1.81

15.4

Under 2.5

1.54

2.24

-20.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Elche, Over 2.5 (27.7 %, 15.4 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.67 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.49. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Elche and the red line for guest team, Celta.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Elche

19%

22%

33%

26%

Celta

34%

40%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Elche to score 0.86 goals and Celta to score 1.22 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and the guest team Elche to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Elche to score 1.66 goals and Celta to score 1.01 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Elche to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

6.50%

0-1

21.5%

1

15.00%

2-3

50.7%

2

23.20%

4+

27.7%

3

27.50%

Ov 1.5

78.4%

4

18.00%

Un 1.5

21.5%

5

7.40%

Ov 2.5

55.2%

6+

2.30%

Un 2.5

44.7%

Gg

53.50%

Ov 3.5

27.7%

NoG

46.40%

Un 3.5

72.2%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.95

3.31

2.79

2-3 goals

1.52

5.83

5.83

4+ goals

1.87

3.46

5.65

Ov 1.5

1.63

4.69

5.76

Un 1.5

2.95

3.31

2.79

Ov 2.5

1.50

6.90

5.36

Un 2.5

2.42

2.94

4.06

Ov 3.5

1.87

3.46

5.65

Un 3.5

1.78

4.75

4.40

Goal-Goal

1.90

3.20

6.22

No Goal

1.71

7.14

3.65

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.59

5.60

5.21

NG+Un 2.5

1.95

7.14

3.27


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Ath Madrid vs Cadiz

In this section we will analyze the game between Ath Madrid and Cadiz for La Liga (Spain), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ath Madrid

1.45

1.84

-14.6

Draw

4.09

4.02

0.4

Cadiz

9.16

4.81

9.9

Over 2.5

2.47

1.90

12.1

Under 2.5

1.56

2.11

-16.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Cadiz, Over 2.5 (0.4 %, 9.9 %, 12.1 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.75 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.33. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Ath Madrid and the red line for guest team, Cadiz.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ath Madrid

18%

30%

20%

31%

Cadiz

32%

45%

16%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.64 goals and Cadiz to score 0.47 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 1.17 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.63 goals and Cadiz to score 0.97 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

6.00%

0-1

24.2%

1

18.20%

2-3

48.4%

2

23.20%

4+

27.4%

3

25.20%

Ov 1.5

75.8%

4

19.00%

Un 1.5

24.2%

5

6.30%

Ov 2.5

52.6%

6+

2.10%

Un 2.5

47.4%

Gg

55.00%

Ov 3.5

27.4%

NoG

45.00%

Un 3.5

72.6%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.44

4.03

2.92

2-3 goals

1.88

3.56

5.32

4+ goals

1.47

5.07

8.06

Ov 1.5

1.71

3.99

6.06

Un 1.5

2.44

4.03

2.92

Ov 2.5

1.40

9.74

5.54

Un 2.5

2.87

2.42

4.19

Ov 3.5

1.47

5.07

8.06

Un 3.5

2.04

3.70

4.17

Goal-Goal

1.99

2.89

6.63

No Goal

1.70

7.50

3.60

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.49

7.67

4.99

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

7.50

2.99


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Barcelona vs Betis

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Betis for La Liga (Spain), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Barcelona

1.42

2.00

-20.4

Draw

5.12

3.88

6.2

Betis

7.62

4.13

11.1

Over 2.5

1.52

2.05

-17.0

Under 2.5

2.66

1.95

13.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Betis, Under 2.5 (6.2 %, 11.1 %, 13.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.88 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.14. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Barcelona and the red line for guest team, Betis.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Barcelona

20%

34%

21%

24%

Betis

37%

35%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barcelona to score 2.46 goals and Betis to score 0.7 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.16 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 1.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barcelona to score 1.49 goals and Betis to score 1 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.60%

0-1

27.60%

1

20.00%

2-3

48.20%

2

23.70%

4+

24.10%

3

24.50%

Ov 1.5

72.30%

4

15.50%

Un 1.5

27.60%

5

6.30%

Ov 2.5

48.60%

6+

2.30%

Un 2.5

51.30%

Gg

49.90%

Ov 3.5

24.10%

NoG

50.00%

Un 3.5

75.80%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.14

3.63

3.89

2-3 goals

1.98

3.98

4.12

4+ goals

1.90

3.95

4.55

Ov 1.5

1.95

3.97

4.25

Un 1.5

2.14

3.63

3.89

Ov 2.5

1.67

7.97

3.63

Un 2.5

2.45

2.60

4.79

Ov 3.5

1.90

3.95

4.55

Un 3.5

2.03

3.85

4.03

Goal-Goal

2.47

2.74

4.34

No Goal

1.68

6.58

3.97

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.87

6.20

3.29

NG+Un 2.5

1.88

6.58

3.66


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!