2020 11 05 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Strasbourg vs Marseille at 06 November 2020
Bordeaux vs Montpellier at 07 November 2020
Paris SG vs Rennes at 07 November 2020
Lens vs Reims at 08 November 2020
Lorient vs Nantes at 08 November 2020
Lyon vs St Etienne at 08 November 2020
Metz vs Dijon at 08 November 2020
Nice vs Monaco at 08 November 2020
Nimes vs Angers at 08 November 2020


Strasbourg vs Marseille

In this section we will analyze the game between Strasbourg and Marseille for Ligue One (France), which will take place at 06 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Strasbourg

2.86

2.87

-0.1

Draw

3.33

3.57

-2.0

Marseille

2.58

2.68

-1.4

Over 2.5

2.15

2.43

-5.4

Under 2.5

1.74

1.70

1.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.4 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.81 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.55. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Strasbourg and the red line for guest team, Marseille.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Strasbourg

34%

35%

22%

9%

Marseille

35%

35%

7%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.13 goals and Marseille to score 1.21 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.06 goals and Marseille to score 1.16 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

12.10%

0-1

36.5%

1

24.40%

2-3

43.4%

2

22.40%

4+

20.0%

3

21.00%

Ov 1.5

63.4%

4

12.50%

Un 1.5

36.5%

5

5.50%

Ov 2.5

41.0%

6+

2.00%

Un 2.5

58.9%

Gg

42.40%

Ov 3.5

20.0%

NoG

57.50%

Un 3.5

79.9%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.97

3.02

3.02

2-3 goals

2.33

3.56

3.44

4+ goals

5.13

5.56

1.60

Ov 1.5

2.82

4.01

2.53

Un 1.5

2.97

3.02

3.02

Ov 2.5

2.77

11.39

1.81

Un 2.5

2.94

2.42

4.03

Ov 3.5

5.13

5.56

1.60

Un 3.5

2.59

3.29

3.23

Goal-Goal

3.66

2.68

2.83

No Goal

2.48

4.75

2.59

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.60

8.39

2.01

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

4.75

3.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Bordeaux vs Montpellier

In this section we will analyze the game between Bordeaux and Montpellier for Ligue One (France), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bordeaux

2.38

2.33

0.9

Draw

3.34

3.52

-1.5

Montpellier

3.10

3.50

-3.7

Over 2.5

2.16

2.40

-4.6

Under 2.5

1.73

1.72

0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bordeaux, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 0.3 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.76 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.57. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Bordeaux and the red line for guest team, Montpellier.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bordeaux

24%

40%

21%

15%

Montpellier

36%

36%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bordeaux to score 1.27 goals and Montpellier to score 1.05 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bordeaux to score 1.26 goals and Montpellier to score 1.01 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

8.70%

0-1

31.7%

1

23.00%

2-3

49.3%

2

26.60%

4+

18.9%

3

22.70%

Ov 1.5

68.2%

4

12.90%

Un 1.5

31.7%

5

4.70%

Ov 2.5

41.6%

6+

1.30%

Un 2.5

58.3%

Gg

48.50%

Ov 3.5

18.9%

NoG

51.40%

Un 3.5

81.0%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.22

3.64

3.64

2-3 goals

2.42

3.45

3.38

4+ goals

2.30

3.50

3.57

Ov 1.5

2.38

3.46

3.43

Un 1.5

2.22

3.64

3.64

Ov 2.5

1.98

7.70

2.74

Un 2.5

2.66

2.53

4.35

Ov 3.5

2.30

3.50

3.57

Un 3.5

2.33

3.52

3.48

Goal-Goal

3.09

2.46

3.70

No Goal

1.89

5.91

3.32

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.18

6.33

2.61

NG+Un 2.5

2.01

5.91

3.28


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Paris SG vs Rennes

In this section we will analyze the game between Paris SG and Rennes for Ligue One (France), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Paris SG

1.33

1.89

-22.3

Draw

5.82

4.03

7.6

Rennes

9.24

4.52

11.3

Over 2.5

1.47

2.10

-20.4

Under 2.5

2.62

1.91

14.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Rennes, Under 2.5 (7.6 %, 11.3 %, 14.2 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.38 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.72. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Paris SG and the red line for guest team, Rennes.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Paris SG

22%

23%

37%

18%

Rennes

39%

36%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Paris SG to score 2.6 goals and Rennes to score 0.6 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.2 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 2 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Paris SG to score 1.5 goals and Rennes to score 0.93 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

8.80%

0-1

25.9%

1

17.10%

2-3

52.4%

2

26.50%

4+

21.6%

3

25.90%

Ov 1.5

74.0%

4

14.50%

Un 1.5

25.9%

5

5.80%

Ov 2.5

47.5%

6+

1.30%

Un 2.5

52.4%

Gg

47.10%

Ov 3.5

21.6%

NoG

52.80%

Un 3.5

78.3%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.85

2.94

3.24

2-3 goals

1.52

6.31

5.40

4+ goals

2.27

2.81

4.91

Ov 1.5

1.69

4.62

5.25

Un 1.5

2.85

2.94

3.24

Ov 2.5

1.60

6.17

4.66

Un 2.5

2.24

3.06

4.40

Ov 3.5

2.27

2.81

4.91

Un 3.5

1.80

4.58

4.42

Goal-Goal

2.08

2.94

5.54

No Goal

1.74

6.00

3.88

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.72

5.04

4.56

NG+Un 2.5

1.88

6.00

3.71


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!