2020 11 05 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Brighton vs Burnley at 06 November 2020
Southampton vs Newcastle at 06 November 2020
Chelsea vs Sheffield United at 07 November 2020
Crystal Palace vs Leeds at 07 November 2020
Everton vs Man United at 07 November 2020
West Ham vs Fulham at 07 November 2020
Arsenal vs Aston Villa at 08 November 2020
Leicester vs Wolves at 08 November 2020
Man City vs Liverpool at 08 November 2020
West Brom vs Tottenham at 08 November 2020


Brighton vs Burnley

In this section we will analyze the game between Brighton and Burnley for Premier League (England), which will take place at 06 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brighton

1.91

2.02

-2.9

Draw

3.59

4.03

-3.0

Burnley

4.29

3.91

2.3

Over 2.5

2.03

1.82

5.7

Under 2.5

1.83

2.21

-9.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Burnley, Over 2.5 (2.3 %, 5.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.79 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.27. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Brighton and the red line for guest team, Burnley.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brighton

22%

31%

13%

34%

Burnley

34%

36%

19%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brighton to score 1.56 goals and Burnley to score 0.88 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Brighton to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brighton to score 1.59 goals and Burnley to score 1.08 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and the home team Brighton to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.50%

0-1

25.7%

1

18.20%

2-3

44.0%

2

19.40%

4+

30.3%

3

24.60%

Ov 1.5

74.3%

4

18.20%

Un 1.5

25.7%

5

8.10%

Ov 2.5

54.9%

6+

4.00%

Un 2.5

45.1%

Gg

51.60%

Ov 3.5

30.3%

NoG

48.40%

Un 3.5

69.7%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.43

3.25

2-3 goals

2.15

4.04

3.49

4+ goals

1.60

4.73

6.06

Ov 1.5

1.89

4.29

4.22

Un 1.5

2.50

3.43

3.25

Ov 2.5

1.56

8.58

4.10

Un 2.5

3.09

2.45

3.73

Ov 3.5

1.60

4.73

6.06

Un 3.5

2.26

3.79

3.40

Goal-Goal

2.20

2.98

4.78

No Goal

1.85

6.45

3.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.73

6.36

3.77

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

6.45

2.83


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Southampton vs Newcastle

In this section we will analyze the game between Southampton and Newcastle for Premier League (England), which will take place at 06 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Southampton

1.96

1.79

4.8

Draw

3.63

4.37

-4.7

Newcastle

3.98

4.74

-4.0

Over 2.5

1.92

1.76

4.7

Under 2.5

1.92

2.31

-8.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Southampton, Over 2.5 (4.8 %, 4.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.73 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.37. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Southampton and the red line for guest team, Newcastle.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Southampton

20%

22%

27%

32%

Newcastle

36%

36%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.59 goals and Newcastle to score 0.95 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Southampton to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Southampton to score 1.71 goals and Newcastle to score 1.01 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team Southampton to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.1%

0-1

22.1%

1

15.0%

2-3

48.2%

2

21.2%

4+

29.7%

3

27.0%

Ov 1.5

77.9%

4

18.4%

Un 1.5

22.1%

5

8.2%

Ov 2.5

56.7%

6+

3.1%

Un 2.5

43.3%

Gg

51.2%

Ov 3.5

29.7%

NoG

48.8%

Un 3.5

70.3%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.80

3.11

3.11

2-3 goals

1.55

6.10

5.18

4+ goals

1.74

3.76

6.32

Ov 1.5

1.62

4.93

5.56

Un 1.5

2.80

3.11

3.11

Ov 2.5

1.48

7.18

5.40

Un 2.5

2.45

2.89

4.08

Ov 3.5

1.74

3.76

6.32

Un 3.5

1.81

4.69

4.29

Goal-Goal

1.91

3.24

5.95

No Goal

1.67

6.87

3.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.62

5.48

5.03

NG+Un 2.5

2.00

6.87

3.34


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


Go to Top

Chelsea vs Sheffield United

In this section we will analyze the game between Chelsea and Sheffield United for Premier League (England), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Chelsea

1.40

1.58

-8.1

Draw

5.00

4.55

2.0

Sheffield United

8.34

6.85

2.6

Over 2.5

1.69

1.92

-7.1

Under 2.5

2.23

2.09

3.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Sheffield United, Under 2.5 (2 %, 2.6 %, 3 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.88 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.14. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Chelsea and the red line for guest team, Sheffield United.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Chelsea

13%

31%

24%

32%

Sheffield United

45%

36%

14%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Chelsea to score 2.23 goals and Sheffield United to score 0.6 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the home team Chelsea to win by 1.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Chelsea to score 1.76 goals and Sheffield United to score 0.8 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Chelsea to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

6%

0-1

24.300%

1

18%

2-3

51.500%

2

23%

4+

24.200%

3

28%

Ov 1.5

75.700%

4

17%

Un 1.5

24.300%

5

6%

Ov 2.5

52.200%

6+

2%

Un 2.5

47.800%

Gg

48%

Ov 3.5

24.200%

NoG

52%

Un 3.5

75.800%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.75

4.19

5.28

2-3 goals

1.54

4.64

7.46

4+ goals

1.51

4.65

8.07

Ov 1.5

1.53

4.64

7.65

Un 1.5

1.75

4.19

5.28

Ov 2.5

1.34

10.04

6.44

Un 2.5

1.95

2.83

7.47

Ov 3.5

1.51

4.65

8.07

Un 3.5

1.60

4.49

6.59

Goal-Goal

1.97

2.96

6.51

No Goal

1.33

8.93

7.30

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.51

7.13

5.01

NG+Un 2.5

1.50

8.93

5.73


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!