2020 11 05 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Belenenses vs Rio Ave at 06 November 2020
Famalicao vs Maritimo at 07 November 2020
Guimaraes vs Sp Lisbon at 07 November 2020
Moreirense vs Pacos Ferreira at 07 November 2020
Benfica vs Sp Braga at 08 November 2020
Farense vs Boavista at 08 November 2020
Nacional vs Gil Vicente at 08 November 2020
Porto vs Portimonense at 08 November 2020


Belenenses vs Rio Ave

In this section we will analyze the game between Belenenses and Rio Ave for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place at 06 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Belenenses

3.72

1.83

27.8

Draw

3.22

3.94

-5.7

Rio Ave

2.13

5.00

-26.9

Over 2.5

2.38

1.66

18.2

Under 2.5

1.59

2.51

-23.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Belenenses, Over 2.5 (27.8 %, 18.2 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.85 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.18. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Belenenses and the red line for guest team, Rio Ave.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Belenenses

12%

30%

28%

31%

Rio Ave

25%

54%

3%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Belenenses to score 0.87 goals and Rio Ave to score 1.29 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the guest team Belenenses to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Belenenses to score 1.78 goals and Rio Ave to score 1.15 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.93 goals in the game and the home team Belenenses to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

2.80%

0-1

16.4%

1

13.60%

2-3

49.1%

2

23.40%

4+

34.5%

3

25.70%

Ov 1.5

83.6%

4

22.90%

Un 1.5

16.4%

5

6.00%

Ov 2.5

60.2%

6+

5.60%

Un 2.5

39.8%

Gg

66.70%

Ov 3.5

34.5%

NoG

33.30%

Un 3.5

65.5%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.22

5.86

2.65

2-3 goals

1.65

3.03

15.34

4+ goals

1.96

5.39

3.29

Ov 1.5

1.77

3.70

6.10

Un 1.5

2.22

5.86

2.65

Ov 2.5

1.49

9.41

4.49

Un 2.5

2.78

2.09

6.12

Ov 3.5

1.96

5.39

3.29

Un 3.5

1.77

3.45

6.97

Goal-Goal

2.03

2.95

5.90

No Goal

1.52

11.89

3.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.54

7.89

4.47

NG+Un 2.5

1.65

11.89

3.63


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


Go to Top

Famalicao vs Maritimo

In this section we will analyze the game between Famalicao and Maritimo for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Famalicao

2.29

3.14

-11.8

Draw

3.21

3.69

-4.1

Maritimo

3.25

2.43

10.4

Over 2.5

2.08

2.40

-6.4

Under 2.5

1.76

1.71

1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Maritimo, Under 2.5 (10.4 %, 1.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.81 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.55. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Famalicao and the red line for guest team, Maritimo.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Famalicao

35%

37%

18%

10%

Maritimo

35%

21%

33%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Famalicao to score 1.33 goals and Maritimo to score 1.04 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Famalicao to score 1.02 goals and Maritimo to score 1.2 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

12.30%

0-1

32.8%

1

20.50%

2-3

49.0%

2

25.70%

4+

18.3%

3

23.30%

Ov 1.5

67.3%

4

12.00%

Un 1.5

32.8%

5

5.20%

Ov 2.5

41.6%

6+

1.10%

Un 2.5

58.5%

Gg

42.30%

Ov 3.5

18.3%

NoG

57.80%

Un 3.5

81.8%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

2.67

4.37

2-3 goals

3.68

6.12

1.77

4+ goals

3.39

2.65

3.05

Ov 1.5

3.60

4.52

2.00

Un 1.5

2.52

2.67

4.37

Ov 2.5

3.30

6.03

1.88

Un 2.5

3.06

2.88

3.06

Ov 3.5

3.39

2.65

3.05

Un 3.5

3.11

4.03

2.32

Goal-Goal

4.65

2.84

2.31

No Goal

2.56

4.70

2.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.77

4.97

1.87

NG+Un 2.5

2.64

4.70

2.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


Go to Top

Guimaraes vs Sp Lisbon

In this section we will analyze the game between Guimaraes and Sp Lisbon for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Guimaraes

3.56

4.22

-4.4

Draw

3.27

3.88

-4.8

Sp Lisbon

2.12

1.98

3.3

Over 2.5

2.24

1.93

7.2

Under 2.5

1.64

2.08

-12.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sp Lisbon, Over 2.5 (3.3 %, 7.2 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.18 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.85. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Guimaraes and the red line for guest team, Sp Lisbon.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Guimaraes

35%

37%

18%

10%

Sp Lisbon

19%

37%

12%

32%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 0.92 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.32 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the guest team Guimaraes to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 1.02 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.57 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the guest team Guimaraes to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

6.60%

0-1

26.7%

1

20.10%

2-3

45.6%

2

21.40%

4+

27.8%

3

24.20%

Ov 1.5

73.4%

4

17.80%

Un 1.5

26.7%

5

6.80%

Ov 2.5

52.0%

6+

3.20%

Un 2.5

48.1%

Gg

52.80%

Ov 3.5

27.8%

NoG

47.30%

Un 3.5

72.3%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.81

4.05

2.04

2-3 goals

3.86

3.26

2.30

4+ goals

5.67

5.25

1.58

Ov 1.5

4.40

3.80

1.96

Un 1.5

3.81

4.05

2.04

Ov 2.5

3.88

9.81

1.56

Un 2.5

4.67

2.33

2.80

Ov 3.5

5.67

5.25

1.58

Un 3.5

3.85

3.51

2.20

Goal-Goal

4.59

2.74

2.40

No Goal

3.88

7.17

1.66

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.37

7.32

1.76

NG+Un 2.5

3.31

7.17

1.98


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!