2020 11 05 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Albacete vs Leganes at 06 November 2020
Cartagena vs Logrones at 07 November 2020
Espanol vs Lugo at 07 November 2020
Mirandes vs Sp Gijon at 07 November 2020
Alcorcon vs Fuenlabrada at 08 November 2020
Mallorca vs Ponferradina at 08 November 2020
Oviedo vs Castellon at 08 November 2020
Sabadell vs Malaga at 08 November 2020
Tenerife vs Zaragoza at 08 November 2020
Vallecano vs Almeria at 08 November 2020
Girona vs Las Palmas at 09 November 2020


Albacete vs Leganes

In this section we will analyze the game between Albacete and Leganes for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place at 06 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Albacete

3.49

2.28

15.2

Draw

2.81

3.56

-7.5

Leganes

2.38

3.55

-13.8

Over 2.5

2.75

2.38

5.7

Under 2.5

1.43

1.73

-12.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Albacete, Over 2.5 (15.2 %, 5.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.32 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.76. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Albacete and the red line for guest team, Leganes.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Albacete

26%

35%

25%

14%

Leganes

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Albacete to score 0.85 goals and Leganes to score 1.09 goals. So, they expect a total of 1.94 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Albacete to score 1.28 goals and Leganes to score 1 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

9.2%

0-1

31.2%

1

22.0%

2-3

49.8%

2

26.7%

4+

19.0%

3

23.1%

Ov 1.5

68.8%

4

13.0%

Un 1.5

31.2%

5

4.8%

Ov 2.5

42.1%

6+

1.2%

Un 2.5

57.9%

Gg

47.8%

Ov 3.5

19.0%

NoG

52.2%

Un 3.5

81.0%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.39

3.28

2-3 goals

2.15

3.86

3.64

4+ goals

2.38

3.17

3.80

Ov 1.5

2.21

3.64

3.68

Un 1.5

2.50

3.39

3.28

Ov 2.5

1.89

7.02

3.05

Un 2.5

2.71

2.62

4.02

Ov 3.5

2.38

3.17

3.80

Un 3.5

2.27

3.67

3.49

Goal-Goal

2.78

2.53

4.09

No Goal

1.97

5.67

3.16

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.03

5.82

2.98

NG+Un 2.5

2.10

5.67

3.12


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Cartagena vs Logrones

In this section we will analyze the game between Cartagena and Logrones for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cartagena

2.21

2.04

3.8

Draw

3.13

3.73

-5.1

Logrones

3.59

4.12

-3.6

Over 2.5

2.61

2.23

6.5

Under 2.5

1.47

1.81

-12.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cartagena, Over 2.5 (3.8 %, 6.5 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.18 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.85. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Cartagena and the red line for guest team, Logrones.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cartagena

21%

34%

26%

18%

Logrones

37%

37%

18%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.17 goals and Logrones to score 0.84 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.01 goals in the game and the home team Cartagena to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.41 goals and Logrones to score 0.96 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Cartagena to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

8.0%

0-1

28.7%

1

20.7%

2-3

50.7%

2

26.4%

4+

20.7%

3

24.3%

Ov 1.5

71.4%

4

14.1%

Un 1.5

28.7%

5

5.3%

Ov 2.5

45.0%

6+

1.3%

Un 2.5

55.1%

Gg

49.3%

Ov 3.5

20.7%

NoG

50.8%

Un 3.5

79.4%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.22

3.59

3.68

2-3 goals

1.94

4.02

4.23

4+ goals

2.09

3.34

4.50

Ov 1.5

1.98

3.80

4.30

Un 1.5

2.22

3.59

3.68

Ov 2.5

1.72

7.26

3.57

Un 2.5

2.43

2.67

4.67

Ov 3.5

2.09

3.34

4.50

Un 3.5

2.04

3.85

4.01

Goal-Goal

2.53

2.62

4.48

No Goal

1.73

6.35

3.79

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

5.92

3.34

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

6.35

3.60


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Espanol vs Lugo

In this section we will analyze the game between Espanol and Lugo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Espanol

1.44

1.75

-12.3

Draw

4.19

4.08

0.6

Lugo

7.71

5.49

5.2

Over 2.5

2.21

2.18

0.6

Under 2.5

1.67

1.85

-5.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Lugo, Over 2.5 (0.6 %, 5.2 %, 0.6 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.14 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.88. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Espanol and the red line for guest team, Lugo.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Espanol

18%

33%

26%

24%

Lugo

45%

35%

14%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.74 goals and Lugo to score 0.53 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 1.21 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.55 goals and Lugo to score 0.82 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.80%

0-1

28.7%

1

20.90%

2-3

50.8%

2

25.50%

4+

20.5%

3

25.30%

Ov 1.5

71.3%

4

14.00%

Un 1.5

28.7%

5

5.00%

Ov 2.5

45.8%

6+

1.50%

Un 2.5

54.2%

Gg

45.60%

Ov 3.5

20.5%

NoG

54.40%

Un 3.5

79.5%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.94

3.68

4.70

2-3 goals

1.64

4.42

6.12

4+ goals

1.78

4.02

5.26

Ov 1.5

1.68

4.30

5.84

Un 1.5

1.94

3.68

4.70

Ov 2.5

1.48

8.98

4.72

Un 2.5

2.06

2.81

6.30

Ov 3.5

1.78

4.02

5.26

Un 3.5

1.74

4.12

5.52

Goal-Goal

2.24

2.75

5.30

No Goal

1.47

6.97

5.61

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.67

6.69

3.97

NG+Un 2.5

1.62

6.97

4.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!