2020 11 05 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sassuolo vs Udinese at 06 November 2020
Benevento vs Spezia at 07 November 2020
Cagliari vs Sampdoria at 07 November 2020
Parma vs Fiorentina at 07 November 2020
Atalanta vs Inter at 08 November 2020
Bologna vs Napoli at 08 November 2020
Genoa vs Roma at 08 November 2020
Lazio vs Juventus at 08 November 2020
Milan vs Verona at 08 November 2020
Torino vs Crotone at 08 November 2020


Sassuolo vs Udinese

In this section we will analyze the game between Sassuolo and Udinese for Serie A (Italy), which will take place at 06 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sassuolo

2.03

2.18

-3.4

Draw

3.74

2.83

8.6

Udinese

3.60

5.32

-9.0

Over 2.5

1.56

3.22

-33.0

Under 2.5

2.38

1.45

26.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (8.6 %, 26.9 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 3.76 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.36.
Also, from our division observations, we have the advise to avoid betting on home or away win.We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Sassuolo and the red line for guest team, Udinese.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sassuolo

33%

20%

36%

12%

Udinese

76%

-21%

39%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.82 goals and Udinese to score 1.19 goals. So, they expect a total of 3.01 goals in the game and the home team Sassuolo to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sassuolo to score 1.27 goals and Udinese to score 0.74 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.01 goals in the game and the home team Sassuolo to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

24.8%

0-1

33.1%

1

8.3%

2-3

46.8%

2

35.8%

4+

20.0%

3

11.0%

Ov 1.5

66.8%

4

12.7%

Un 1.5

33.1%

5

6.6%

Ov 2.5

31.0%

6+

0.7%

Un 2.5

68.9%

Gg

16.2%

Ov 3.5

20.0%

NoG

83.7%

Un 3.5

79.9%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.21

1.33

-4.94

2-3 goals

1.64

-11.41

2.10

4+ goals

9.09

1.36

6.45

Ov 1.5

2.17

6.30

2.63

Un 1.5

2.21

1.33

-4.94

Ov 2.5

8.38

2.11

2.46

Un 2.5

1.64

3.33

11.30

Ov 3.5

9.09

1.36

6.45

Un 3.5

1.83

3.86

5.12

Goal-Goal

-3.12

1.53

1.50

No Goal

1.64

3.38

10.59

G-G+Ov 2.5

-3.90

1.38

1.88

NG+Un 2.5

1.73

3.38

11.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


Go to Top

Benevento vs Spezia

In this section we will analyze the game between Benevento and Spezia for Serie A (Italy), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Benevento

1.99

2.80

-14.5

Draw

3.80

3.01

6.9

Spezia

3.69

3.22

4.0

Over 2.5

1.58

2.52

-23.6

Under 2.5

2.41

1.66

18.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Spezia, Under 2.5 (6.9 %, 4 %, 18.7 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.84 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.54. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Benevento and the red line for guest team, Spezia.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Benevento

37%

18%

37%

8%

Spezia

50%

2%

36%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benevento to score 1.84 goals and Spezia to score 1.17 goals. So, they expect a total of 3 goals in the game and the home team Benevento to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benevento to score 1.17 goals and Spezia to score 1.09 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

18%

0-1

28.1%

1

10%

2-3

48.0%

2

32%

4+

24.0%

3

16%

Ov 1.5

72.0%

4

16%

Un 1.5

28.1%

5

7%

Ov 2.5

39.7%

6+

1%

Un 2.5

60.4%

Gg

32%

Ov 3.5

24.0%

NoG

68%

Un 3.5

76.1%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.16

1.53

35.12

2-3 goals

2.04

120.00

1.99

4+ goals

7.27

1.66

3.87

Ov 1.5

2.69

4.83

2.38

Un 1.5

3.16

1.53

35.12

Ov 2.5

4.78

2.74

2.35

Un 2.5

2.20

3.21

4.25

Ov 3.5

7.27

1.66

3.87

Un 3.5

2.35

4.05

3.06

Goal-Goal

7.73

2.13

2.50

No Goal

2.16

3.72

3.72

G-G+Ov 2.5

7.63

2.16

2.46

NG+Un 2.5

2.19

3.72

4.23


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


Go to Top

Cagliari vs Sampdoria

In this section we will analyze the game between Cagliari and Sampdoria for Serie A (Italy), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cagliari

2.84

3.09

-2.8

Draw

3.60

2.81

7.8

Sampdoria

2.44

3.12

-8.9

Over 2.5

1.63

2.31

-18.1

Under 2.5

2.28

1.76

13.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Under 2.5 (7.8 %, 13 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.58 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.63. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Cagliari and the red line for guest team, Sampdoria.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cagliari

40%

2%

52%

6%

Sampdoria

42%

9%

34%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.37 goals and Sampdoria to score 1.53 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.9 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cagliari to score 1.24 goals and Sampdoria to score 1.22 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

16.60%

0-1

21.1%

1

4.50%

2-3

49.4%

2

35.50%

4+

29.4%

3

13.90%

Ov 1.5

78.8%

4

18.70%

Un 1.5

21.1%

5

9.80%

Ov 2.5

43.3%

6+

0.90%

Un 2.5

56.6%

Gg

35.00%

Ov 3.5

29.4%

NoG

64.90%

Un 3.5

70.5%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

21.10

1.27

6.03

2-3 goals

1.72

247.00

2.42

4+ goals

11.31

1.56

3.68

Ov 1.5

2.51

4.15

2.77

Un 1.5

21.10

1.27

6.03

Ov 2.5

4.42

2.30

2.95

Un 2.5

2.50

3.37

3.29

Ov 3.5

11.31

1.56

3.68

Un 3.5

2.37

4.20

2.95

Goal-Goal

4.86

1.84

3.98

No Goal

2.58

3.91

2.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

4.83

1.85

3.95

NG+Un 2.5

2.50

3.91

3.28


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!