2020 11 05 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Spal vs Salernitana at 06 November 2020
Cosenza vs Brescia at 07 November 2020
Cremonese vs Vicenza at 07 November 2020
Empoli vs Reggiana at 07 November 2020
Monza vs Frosinone at 07 November 2020
Pisa vs Ascoli at 07 November 2020
Pordenone vs Chievo at 07 November 2020
Pescara vs Cittadella at 08 November 2020
Virtus Entella vs Lecce at 08 November 2020


Spal vs Salernitana

In this section we will analyze the game between Spal and Salernitana for Serie B (Italy), which will take place at 06 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spal

1.96

2.53

-11.5

Draw

3.10

3.73

-5.4

Salernitana

4.39

2.97

10.9

Over 2.5

2.33

2.08

5.2

Under 2.5

1.61

1.92

-10.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Salernitana, Over 2.5 (10.9 %, 5.2 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 1.9 and for Under 2.5 goals 2.11. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Spal and the red line for guest team, Salernitana.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spal

26%

31%

31%

12%

Salernitana

30%

36%

20%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spal to score 1.39 goals and Salernitana to score 0.8 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and the home team Spal to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spal to score 1.28 goals and Salernitana to score 1.19 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.80%

0-1

26.4%

1

18.60%

2-3

50.1%

2

25.60%

4+

23.4%

3

24.50%

Ov 1.5

73.5%

4

14.90%

Un 1.5

26.4%

5

6.80%

Ov 2.5

47.9%

6+

1.70%

Un 2.5

52.0%

Gg

51.80%

Ov 3.5

23.4%

NoG

48.10%

Un 3.5

76.5%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.84

3.38

2.84

2-3 goals

2.12

4.51

3.25

4+ goals

3.66

2.92

2.60

Ov 1.5

2.45

3.85

3.01

Un 1.5

2.84

3.38

2.84

Ov 2.5

2.30

5.99

2.51

Un 2.5

2.81

2.75

3.56

Ov 3.5

3.66

2.92

2.60

Un 3.5

2.33

4.05

3.10

Goal-Goal

2.98

2.71

3.39

No Goal

2.20

6.17

2.61

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.34

5.09

2.66

NG+Un 2.5

2.21

6.17

2.80


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Cosenza vs Brescia

In this section we will analyze the game between Cosenza and Brescia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cosenza

2.76

2.05

12.5

Draw

3.00

3.44

-4.3

Brescia

2.74

4.55

-14.5

Over 2.5

2.19

2.56

-6.6

Under 2.5

1.70

1.64

2.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cosenza, Under 2.5 (12.5 %, 2.2 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.29 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.78. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Cosenza and the red line for guest team, Brescia.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cosenza

19%

48%

13%

20%

Brescia

41%

38%

15%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cosenza to score 1.15 goals and Brescia to score 1.15 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cosenza to score 1.35 goals and Brescia to score 0.86 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the home team Cosenza to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.70%

0-1

34.4%

1

26.70%

2-3

48.1%

2

26.40%

4+

17.5%

3

21.70%

Ov 1.5

65.6%

4

12.50%

Un 1.5

34.4%

5

3.80%

Ov 2.5

39.2%

6+

1.20%

Un 2.5

60.8%

Gg

48.10%

Ov 3.5

17.5%

NoG

51.90%

Un 3.5

82.5%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.76

4.47

4.78

2-3 goals

2.61

2.63

4.22

4+ goals

1.61

5.47

5.15

Ov 1.5

2.24

3.05

4.43

Un 1.5

1.76

4.47

4.78

Ov 2.5

1.63

12.25

3.29

Un 2.5

2.46

2.34

6.02

Ov 3.5

1.61

5.47

5.15

Un 3.5

2.18

3.17

4.44

Goal-Goal

3.04

2.24

4.45

No Goal

1.57

6.74

4.63

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.89

9.31

2.76

NG+Un 2.5

1.72

6.74

4.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Cremonese vs Vicenza

In this section we will analyze the game between Cremonese and Vicenza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cremonese

2.37

2.30

1.3

Draw

2.93

3.61

-6.4

Vicenza

3.70

3.47

1.8

Over 2.5

2.40

2.25

2.8

Under 2.5

1.61

1.80

-6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cremonese, Vicenza, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 1.8 %, 2.8 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.04 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.96. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Cremonese and the red line for guest team, Vicenza.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cremonese

25%

32%

30%

13%

Vicenza

32%

41%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cremonese to score 1.24 goals and Vicenza to score 0.92 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team Cremonese to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cremonese to score 1.3 goals and Vicenza to score 1.05 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to stragle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

7.9%

0-1

28.3%

1

20.4%

2-3

51.7%

2

27.2%

4+

19.9%

3

24.5%

Ov 1.5

71.6%

4

13.6%

Un 1.5

28.3%

5

5.1%

Ov 2.5

44.4%

6+

1.2%

Un 2.5

55.5%

Gg

51.2%

Ov 3.5

19.9%

NoG

48.7%

Un 3.5

80.0%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.80

3.58

2.75

2-3 goals

2.00

3.95

4.07

4+ goals

2.65

2.97

3.49

Ov 1.5

2.14

3.62

3.89

Un 1.5

2.80

3.58

2.75

Ov 2.5

1.86

6.63

3.22

Un 2.5

2.83

2.64

3.72

Ov 3.5

2.65

2.97

3.49

Un 3.5

2.22

3.81

3.48

Goal-Goal

2.57

2.59

4.45

No Goal

2.06

6.16

2.83

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

5.69

3.31

NG+Un 2.5

2.16

6.16

2.85


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!