2020 11 05 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC at 07 November 2020
Giannina vs Panetolikos at 07 November 2020
Panathinaikos vs Atromitos at 07 November 2020
Apollon vs PAOK at 08 November 2020
Aris vs AEK at 08 November 2020
Larisa vs Lamia at 08 November 2020
OFI Crete vs Olympiakos at 08 November 2020


Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC

In this section we will analyze the game between Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC for Super League (Greece), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Asteras Tripolis

1.93

2.37

-9.6

Draw

3.16

3.33

-1.6

Volos NFC

4.37

3.60

4.9

Over 2.5

2.32

2.90

-8.6

Under 2.5

1.60

1.53

2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Volos NFC, Under 2.5 (4.9 %, 2.9 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.6 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.62. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Asteras Tripolis and the red line for guest team, Volos NFC.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Asteras Tripolis

44%

16%

26%

15%

Volos NFC

48%

35%

8%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.39 goals and Volos NFC to score 0.8 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and the home team Asteras Tripolis to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.11 goals and Volos NFC to score 0.78 goals. So, we expect a total of 1.89 goals in the game and the home team Asteras Tripolis to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

21.10%

0-1

44.0%

1

22.90%

2-3

42.6%

2

21.40%

4+

13.4%

3

21.20%

Ov 1.5

56.0%

4

8.60%

Un 1.5

44.0%

5

3.50%

Ov 2.5

34.6%

6+

1.30%

Un 2.5

65.4%

Gg

29.20%

Ov 3.5

13.4%

NoG

70.80%

Un 3.5

86.6%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.87

2.09

2.86

2-3 goals

1.50

7.75

4.90

4+ goals

2.13

3.94

3.62

Ov 1.5

1.61

6.29

4.52

Un 1.5

5.87

2.09

2.86

Ov 2.5

1.55

10.18

3.89

Un 2.5

3.29

2.46

3.46

Ov 3.5

2.13

3.94

3.62

Un 3.5

2.41

3.26

3.59

Goal-Goal

1.91

3.28

5.84

No Goal

2.63

3.36

3.11

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.55

6.97

4.74

NG+Un 2.5

3.01

3.36

3.17


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Giannina vs Panetolikos

In this section we will analyze the game between Giannina and Panetolikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Giannina

1.93

1.93

0.0

Draw

3.27

3.53

-2.3

Panetolikos

4.09

5.05

-4.6

Over 2.5

2.44

2.72

-4.2

Under 2.5

1.53

1.58

-2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.45 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.69. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Giannina and the red line for guest team, Panetolikos.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Giannina

27%

35%

15%

22%

Panetolikos

50%

34%

11%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Giannina to score 1.32 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.78 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and the home team Giannina to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Giannina to score 1.33 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.7 goals. So, we expect a total of 2.03 goals in the game and the home team Giannina to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

13.70%

0-1

40.5%

1

26.80%

2-3

44.3%

2

22.60%

4+

15.3%

3

21.70%

Ov 1.5

59.6%

4

11.00%

Un 1.5

40.5%

5

3.20%

Ov 2.5

37.0%

6+

1.10%

Un 2.5

63.1%

Gg

36.30%

Ov 3.5

15.3%

NoG

63.80%

Un 3.5

84.8%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.30

2.96

4.40

2-3 goals

1.83

3.72

5.40

4+ goals

1.51

5.46

6.38

Ov 1.5

1.74

4.05

5.62

Un 1.5

2.30

2.96

4.40

Ov 2.5

1.39

13.21

4.87

Un 2.5

2.49

2.46

5.17

Ov 3.5

1.51

5.46

6.38

Un 3.5

2.03

3.31

4.87

Goal-Goal

2.37

2.47

5.76

No Goal

1.74

4.66

4.73

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.59

8.71

3.87

NG+Un 2.5

2.02

4.66

4.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!


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Panathinaikos vs Atromitos

In this section we will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and Atromitos for Super League (Greece), which will take place at 07 November 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based in expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Panathinaikos

1.79

2.27

-11.8

Draw

3.41

3.36

0.4

Atromitos

4.50

3.82

4.0

Over 2.5

2.35

2.80

-6.8

Under 2.5

1.58

1.56

0.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Atromitos, Under 2.5 (0.4 %, 4 %, 0.8 %) so let’s analyze the game further.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4% so our fair odds for Over 2.5 goals become 2.52 and for Under 2.5 goals 1.66. We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.


Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to interpret them in our book


The percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals appear in the following graph.
The blue line is for home team, Panathinaikos and the red line for guest team, Atromitos.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Panathinaikos

41%

20%

19%

20%

Atromitos

48%

33%

14%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.42 goals and Atromitos to score 0.74 goals. So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and the home team Panathinaikos to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.18 goals and Atromitos to score 0.76 goals. So, we expect a total of 1.94 goals in the game and the home team Panathinaikos to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the probabilities of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Prob%

Goals

Prob%

0

19.5%

0-1

42.70%

1

23.2%

2-3

42.20%

2

21.6%

4+

15.00%

3

20.6%

Ov 1.5

57.20%

4

10.3%

Un 1.5

42.70%

5

3.8%

Ov 2.5

35.60%

6+

0.9%

Un 2.5

64.30%

Gg

30.9%

Ov 3.5

15.00%

NoG

69.0%

Un 3.5

84.90%

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.49

2.19

3.12

2-3 goals

1.70

6.30

3.94

4+ goals

1.56

4.17

8.33

Ov 1.5

1.66

5.55

4.58

Un 1.5

4.49

2.19

3.12

Ov 2.5

1.40

9.89

5.39

Un 2.5

3.48

2.45

3.28

Ov 3.5

1.56

4.17

8.33

Un 3.5

2.48

3.24

3.48

Goal-Goal

1.94

3.00

6.57

No Goal

2.46

3.54

3.21

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.52

6.72

5.15

NG+Un 2.5

3.11

3.54

2.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!