Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Dag and Red vs Stockport at 14 November 2020
Eastleigh vs Hartlepool at 14 November 2020
Solihull vs Halifax at 14 November 2020
Sutton vs King’s Lynn at 14 November 2020
Torquay vs Boreham Wood at 14 November 2020
Wealdstone vs Dover Athletic at 14 November 2020
Barnet vs Bromley at 14 November 2020
Woking vs Yeovil at 14 November 2020
Altrincham vs Aldershot at 14 November 2020
Chesterfield vs Maidenhead at 14 November 2020
Weymouth vs Wrexham at 14 November 2020
Dag and Red vs Stockport at 14 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Dag and Red and Stockport for Conference (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Dag and Red |
4.02 |
2.57 |
14.0 |
|
Draw |
3.59 |
3.68 |
-0.7 |
|
Stockport |
1.82 |
2.95 |
-21.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
2.00 |
-2.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
2.00 |
-3.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Dag and Red (14 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Dag and Red in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance at home.
Dag and Red, at home, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Dag and Red was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Oct |
Maidenhead |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Yeovil |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
13 Oct |
Woking |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Wealdstone |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Oct |
Barnet |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Halifax |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Stockport in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance as a guest.
Stockport, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Stockport was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
31 Oct |
Weymouth |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Solihull |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Chesterfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Oct |
Wealdstone |
A |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
10 Oct |
Dover Athletic |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
06 Oct |
Halifax |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Torquay |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dag and Red and the red line for guest team, Stockport.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Dag and Red |
23% |
38% |
23% |
16% |
|
Stockport |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 0.91 goals and Stockport to score 1.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the guest team Stockport to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.32 goals and Stockport to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
3.98 |
|
1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
3.94 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.98 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
Gg |
1.81 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |
|
NoG |
2.24 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.37 |
3.86 |
3.14 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.59 |
3.78 |
2.86 |
|
4+ goals |
2.76 |
3.34 |
2.95 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.62 |
2.89 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.86 |
3.14 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
6.57 |
2.43 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.93 |
2.56 |
3.74 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.76 |
3.34 |
2.95 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.51 |
3.81 |
2.95 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.20 |
2.67 |
3.20 |
|
No Goal |
2.07 |
6.88 |
2.69 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.44 |
5.55 |
2.44 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
6.88 |
2.76 |
Go to Top
Eastleigh vs Hartlepool at 14 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Eastleigh and Hartlepool for Conference (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Eastleigh |
2.66 |
3.29 |
-7.2 |
|
Draw |
3.51 |
3.70 |
-1.5 |
|
Hartlepool |
2.40 |
2.35 |
0.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.75 |
2.05 |
-8.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.95 |
2.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Hartlepool, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Eastleigh in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance at home.
Eastleigh, at home, had one win, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 6 results of Eastleigh was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
31 Oct |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Dover Athletic |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Aldershot |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
10 Oct |
Altrincham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Oct |
Torquay |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Barnet |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Hartlepool in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance as a guest.
Hartlepool, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 6 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Hartlepool was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
31 Oct |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Altrincham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Oct |
Bromley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Maidenhead |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
06 Oct |
Chesterfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Aldershot |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Eastleigh and the red line for guest team, Hartlepool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Eastleigh |
30% |
38% |
21% |
12% |
|
Hartlepool |
24% |
33% |
25% |
18% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.3 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.14 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.37 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.83 |
|
1 |
5.26 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.10 |
|
3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |
|
5 |
15.15 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |
|
Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.10 |
|
NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.87 |
3.68 |
2.64 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.41 |
3.87 |
2.23 |
|
4+ goals |
3.64 |
3.39 |
2.32 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.49 |
3.70 |
2.26 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.87 |
3.68 |
2.64 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.99 |
6.78 |
1.93 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.66 |
2.57 |
2.96 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.64 |
3.39 |
2.32 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.20 |
3.80 |
2.36 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.95 |
2.69 |
2.67 |
|
No Goal |
2.77 |
6.52 |
2.06 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.01 |
5.68 |
2.03 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.74 |
6.52 |
2.22 |
Go to Top
Solihull vs Halifax at 14 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Solihull and Halifax for Conference (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Solihull |
1.79 |
1.29 |
21.7 |
|
Draw |
3.52 |
5.46 |
-10.1 |
|
Halifax |
4.10 |
25.00 |
-20.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.01 |
-0.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.99 |
-5.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Solihull (21.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Solihull in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Solihull in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance at home.
Solihull, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 6 results of Solihull was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
31 Oct |
Maidenhead |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
King’s Lynn |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
06 Oct |
Wrexham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Woking |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Halifax in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance as a guest.
Halifax, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Halifax was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
17 Oct |
Woking |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
13 Oct |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
10 Oct |
Boreham Wood |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
06 Oct |
Stockport |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Dag and Red |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Solihull and the red line for guest team, Halifax.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Solihull |
-9% |
52% |
28% |
29% |
|
Halifax |
50% |
36% |
9% |
4% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.57 goals and Halifax to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Solihull to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.95 goals and Halifax to score 0.68 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and the home team Solihull to win by 1.27 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
-23.26 |
0-1 |
5.46 |
|
1 |
4.42 |
2-3 |
1.63 |
|
2 |
3.13 |
4+ |
4.85 |
|
3 |
3.42 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.22 |
|
4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
5.46 |
|
5 |
25.64 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
Gg |
1.84 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.85 |
|
NoG |
2.19 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
0.71 |
-4.26 |
-5.90 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.57 |
3.27 |
17.00 |
|
4+ goals |
1.55 |
5.28 |
6.06 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.57 |
3.62 |
11.69 |
|
Un 1.5 |
0.71 |
-4.26 |
-5.90 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.31 |
12.77 |
6.38 |
|
Un 2.5 |
1.26 |
3.49 |
-12.90 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.55 |
5.28 |
6.06 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
5.52 |
159.00 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.31 |
2.41 |
6.63 |
|
No Goal |
0.84 |
-10.63 |
-10.63 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.51 |
9.15 |
4.35 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
0.79 |
-10.63 |
-8.10 |
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Sutton vs King’s Lynn at 14 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Sutton and King’s Lynn for Conference (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sutton |
1.60 |
1.81 |
-7.3 |
|
Draw |
3.92 |
4.22 |
-1.8 |
|
King’s Lynn |
4.57 |
4.72 |
-0.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.96 |
-10.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.04 |
2.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sutton in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance at home.
Sutton, at home, had one win, no draws, one defeat and gathered 3 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 5 results of Sutton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
27 Oct |
Yeovil |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Oct |
Notts County |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Oct |
Aldershot |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Maidenhead |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
King’s Lynn in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance as a guest.
King’s Lynn, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 5 results of King’s Lynn was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
31 Oct |
Woking |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Wealdstone |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Oct |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Solihull |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
06 Oct |
Maidenhead |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Yeovil |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sutton and the red line for guest team, King’s Lynn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sutton |
24% |
22% |
27% |
28% |
|
King’s Lynn |
39% |
37% |
17% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.96 goals and King’s Lynn to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the home team Sutton to win by 1.06 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.59 goals and King’s Lynn to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Sutton to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.75 |
0-1 |
3.77 |
|
1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.05 |
|
2 |
4.44 |
4+ |
4.03 |
|
3 |
3.82 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
3.77 |
|
5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
|
Gg |
2.16 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.03 |
|
NoG |
1.87 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.15 |
2.85 |
3.01 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.54 |
6.09 |
5.35 |
|
4+ goals |
1.64 |
3.87 |
7.52 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.57 |
5.10 |
5.93 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.15 |
2.85 |
3.01 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.41 |
7.97 |
6.00 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.58 |
2.83 |
3.86 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.64 |
3.87 |
7.52 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.88 |
4.35 |
4.20 |
|
Goal-Goal |
1.85 |
3.22 |
6.72 |
|
No Goal |
1.79 |
5.76 |
3.75 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.53 |
6.00 |
5.57 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
5.76 |
3.23 |
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Torquay vs Boreham Wood at 14 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Torquay and Boreham Wood for Conference (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Torquay |
2.07 |
1.74 |
9.2 |
|
Draw |
3.24 |
4.27 |
-7.4 |
|
Boreham Wood |
3.50 |
5.24 |
-9.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.94 |
-3.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.07 |
-2.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Torquay (9.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Torquay in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance at home.
Torquay, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Torquay was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
31 Oct |
Hartlepool |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Aldershot |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Dover Athletic |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Oct |
Chesterfield |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
10 Oct |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Oct |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |