2020 11 13 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Dag and Red vs Stockport at 14 November 2020
Eastleigh vs Hartlepool at 14 November 2020
Solihull vs Halifax at 14 November 2020
Sutton vs King’s Lynn at 14 November 2020
Torquay vs Boreham Wood at 14 November 2020
Wealdstone vs Dover Athletic at 14 November 2020
Barnet vs Bromley at 14 November 2020
Woking vs Yeovil at 14 November 2020
Altrincham vs Aldershot at 14 November 2020
Chesterfield vs Maidenhead at 14 November 2020
Weymouth vs Wrexham at 14 November 2020


Dag and Red vs Stockport at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Dag and Red and Stockport for Conference (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dag and Red

4.02

2.57

14.0

Draw

3.59

3.68

-0.7

Stockport

1.82

2.95

-21.0

Over 2.5

1.91

2.00

-2.4

Under 2.5

1.86

2.00

-3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Dag and Red (14 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Dag and Red in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance at home.
Dag and Red, at home, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Dag and Red was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Oct

Maidenhead

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Yeovil

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Oct

Woking

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Oct

Wealdstone

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Oct

Barnet

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Halifax

A

0

2

L

U

N


Stockport in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance as a guest.
Stockport, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Stockport was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Oct

Weymouth

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Oct

Solihull

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Chesterfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Oct

Wealdstone

A

5

2

W

O

G

10 Oct

Dover Athletic

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Oct

Halifax

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Torquay

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dag and Red and the red line for guest team, Stockport.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dag and Red

23%

38%

23%

16%

Stockport

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 0.91 goals and Stockport to score 1.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the guest team Stockport to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.32 goals and Stockport to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

3.98

1

5.38

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

3.94

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.98

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.24

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

3.86

3.14

2-3 goals

2.59

3.78

2.86

4+ goals

2.76

3.34

2.95

Ov 1.5

2.65

3.62

2.89

Un 1.5

2.37

3.86

3.14

Ov 2.5

2.29

6.57

2.43

Un 2.5

2.93

2.56

3.74

Ov 3.5

2.76

3.34

2.95

Un 3.5

2.51

3.81

2.95

Goal-Goal

3.20

2.67

3.20

No Goal

2.07

6.88

2.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.44

5.55

2.44

NG+Un 2.5

2.16

6.88

2.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Eastleigh vs Hartlepool at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Eastleigh and Hartlepool for Conference (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Eastleigh

2.66

3.29

-7.2

Draw

3.51

3.70

-1.5

Hartlepool

2.40

2.35

0.9

Over 2.5

1.75

2.05

-8.4

Under 2.5

2.06

1.95

2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Hartlepool, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Eastleigh in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance at home.
Eastleigh, at home, had one win, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 6 results of Eastleigh was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Oct

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Dover Athletic

A

2

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

Aldershot

H

2

2

D

O

G

10 Oct

Altrincham

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Oct

Torquay

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Barnet

A

5

1

W

O

G


Hartlepool in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance as a guest.
Hartlepool, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 6 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Oct

Torquay

H

0

5

L

O

N

27 Oct

Altrincham

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Oct

Bromley

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Oct

Maidenhead

A

4

0

W

O

N

06 Oct

Chesterfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Aldershot

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Eastleigh and the red line for guest team, Hartlepool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Eastleigh

30%

38%

21%

12%

Hartlepool

24%

33%

25%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.3 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.14 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.37 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.83

1

5.26

2-3

2.02

2

3.98

4+

4.10

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.83

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.10

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.87

3.68

2.64

2-3 goals

3.41

3.87

2.23

4+ goals

3.64

3.39

2.32

Ov 1.5

3.49

3.70

2.26

Un 1.5

2.87

3.68

2.64

Ov 2.5

2.99

6.78

1.93

Un 2.5

3.66

2.57

2.96

Ov 3.5

3.64

3.39

2.32

Un 3.5

3.20

3.80

2.36

Goal-Goal

3.95

2.69

2.67

No Goal

2.77

6.52

2.06

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.01

5.68

2.03

NG+Un 2.5

2.74

6.52

2.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Solihull vs Halifax at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Solihull and Halifax for Conference (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Solihull

1.79

1.29

21.7

Draw

3.52

5.46

-10.1

Halifax

4.10

25.00

-20.4

Over 2.5

1.98

2.01

-0.8

Under 2.5

1.79

1.99

-5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Solihull (21.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Solihull in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Solihull in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance at home.
Solihull, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 6 results of Solihull was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Oct

Maidenhead

A

1

3

L

O

G

27 Oct

Stockport

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Boreham Wood

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Oct

King’s Lynn

H

5

0

W

O

N

06 Oct

Wrexham

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Woking

A

1

2

L

O

G


Halifax in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance as a guest.
Halifax, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Oct

Woking

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Oct

Yeovil

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Oct

Boreham Wood

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Oct

Stockport

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Dag and Red

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Solihull and the red line for guest team, Halifax.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Solihull

-9%

52%

28%

29%

Halifax

50%

36%

9%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.57 goals and Halifax to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and the home team Solihull to win by 0.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Solihull to score 1.95 goals and Halifax to score 0.68 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and the home team Solihull to win by 1.27 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

-23.26

0-1

5.46

1

4.42

2-3

1.63

2

3.13

4+

4.85

3

3.42

Ov 1.5

1.22

4

6.49

Un 1.5

5.46

5

25.64

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.84

Ov 3.5

4.85

NoG

2.19

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

0.71

-4.26

-5.90

2-3 goals

1.57

3.27

17.00

4+ goals

1.55

5.28

6.06

Ov 1.5

1.57

3.62

11.69

Un 1.5

0.71

-4.26

-5.90

Ov 2.5

1.31

12.77

6.38

Un 2.5

1.26

3.49

-12.90

Ov 3.5

1.55

5.28

6.06

Un 3.5

1.23

5.52

159.00

Goal-Goal

2.31

2.41

6.63

No Goal

0.84

-10.63

-10.63

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.51

9.15

4.35

NG+Un 2.5

0.79

-10.63

-8.10


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sutton vs King’s Lynn at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sutton and King’s Lynn for Conference (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sutton

1.60

1.81

-7.3

Draw

3.92

4.22

-1.8

King’s Lynn

4.57

4.72

-0.7

Over 2.5

1.62

1.96

-10.7

Under 2.5

2.17

2.04

2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sutton in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance at home.
Sutton, at home, had one win, no draws, one defeat and gathered 3 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 5 results of Sutton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Oct

Yeovil

A

2

1

W

O

G

13 Oct

Notts County

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Oct

Weymouth

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Oct

Aldershot

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Maidenhead

H

3

0

W

O

N


King’s Lynn in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance as a guest.
King’s Lynn, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 5 results of King’s Lynn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Oct

Woking

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Oct

Wealdstone

H

2

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

Weymouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Oct

Boreham Wood

H

0

3

L

O

N

10 Oct

Solihull

A

0

5

L

O

N

06 Oct

Maidenhead

A

3

2

W

O

G

03 Oct

Yeovil

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sutton and the red line for guest team, King’s Lynn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sutton

24%

22%

27%

28%

King’s Lynn

39%

37%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.96 goals and King’s Lynn to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the home team Sutton to win by 1.06 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.59 goals and King’s Lynn to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Sutton to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.77

1

5.81

2-3

2.05

2

4.44

4+

4.03

3

3.82

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.10

Un 1.5

3.77

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

4.03

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.15

2.85

3.01

2-3 goals

1.54

6.09

5.35

4+ goals

1.64

3.87

7.52

Ov 1.5

1.57

5.10

5.93

Un 1.5

3.15

2.85

3.01

Ov 2.5

1.41

7.97

6.00

Un 2.5

2.58

2.83

3.86

Ov 3.5

1.64

3.87

7.52

Un 3.5

1.88

4.35

4.20

Goal-Goal

1.85

3.22

6.72

No Goal

1.79

5.76

3.75

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.53

6.00

5.57

NG+Un 2.5

2.16

5.76

3.23


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Torquay vs Boreham Wood at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Torquay and Boreham Wood for Conference (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torquay

2.07

1.74

9.2

Draw

3.24

4.27

-7.4

Boreham Wood

3.50

5.24

-9.5

Over 2.5

1.81

1.94

-3.7

Under 2.5

1.96

2.07

-2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Torquay (9.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torquay in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance at home.
Torquay, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Torquay was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Oct

Hartlepool

A

5

0

W

O

N

27 Oct

Aldershot

A

4

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Dover Athletic

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Oct

Chesterfield

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Oct

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Oct

Eastleigh

A

1

2

L