# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Sunderland vs Milton Keynes Dons at 14 November 2020**** Shrewsbury vs Swindon at 14 November 2020**** Oxford vs Doncaster at 14 November 2020**** Northampton vs Accrington at 14 November 2020**** Hull vs Burton at 14 November 2020**** Crewe vs Peterboro at 14 November 2020**** Bristol Rvs vs Fleetwood Town at 14 November 2020**** AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan at 14 November 2020**** Plymouth vs Portsmouth at 16 November 2020**

###
Sunderland vs Milton Keynes Dons at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sunderland** and **Milton Keynes Dons** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **14 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sunderland |
1.75 |
1.84 |
-2.8 |

Draw |
3.65 |
3.98 |
-2.3 |

Milton Keynes Dons |
4.81 |
4.85 |
-0.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.12 |
-1.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.89 |
-3.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sunderland** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sunderland** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance** at home**.

Sunderland,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Rochdale |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Charlton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Sep |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance** as a guest**.

Milton Keynes Dons,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Oct |
Wigan |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Oxford |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Gillingham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Ipswich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sunderland** and the red line for guest team, **Milton Keynes Dons. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sunderland |
15% |
36% |
29% |
20% |

Milton Keynes Dons |
40% |
36% |
14% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.62 ** goals and **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **0.79 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Sunderland ** to win by **0.83** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sunderland** to score **1.53 ** goals and **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Sunderland ** to win by **0.6** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.13 |
0-1 |
3.82 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.94 |

2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
4.50 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.81 |
4.23 |
4.76 |

2-3 goals |
1.73 |
3.99 |
5.79 |

4+ goals |
2.22 |
3.64 |
3.64 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.86 |
3.88 |
4.91 |

Un 1.5 |
1.81 |
4.23 |
4.76 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
7.72 |
3.68 |

Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.76 |
6.86 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.22 |
3.64 |
3.64 |

Un 3.5 |
1.76 |
4.07 |
5.40 |

Goal-Goal |
2.50 |
2.66 |
4.47 |

No Goal |
1.45 |
7.97 |
5.37 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
6.16 |
3.33 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.53 |
7.97 |
5.18 |

####
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###
Shrewsbury vs Swindon at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Shrewsbury** and **Swindon** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **14 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Shrewsbury |
2.13 |
2.45 |
-6.1 |

Draw |
3.41 |
3.53 |
-1.0 |

Swindon |
3.40 |
3.24 |
1.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
2.25 |
-7.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
1.80 |
2.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Swindon, Under 2.5 (1.5 %, 2.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Shrewsbury** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Shrewsbury** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance** at home**.

Shrewsbury,** at home**, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Burton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Rochdale |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Gillingham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Sep |
Plymouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Swindon** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swindon** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance** as a guest**.

Swindon,** as a guest**, had no wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Hull |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Burton |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Sep |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Shrewsbury** and the red line for guest team, **Swindon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Shrewsbury |
23% |
40% |
23% |
14% |

Swindon |
32% |
36% |
23% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Swindon** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Shrewsbury ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Swindon** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.50 |

1 |
4.74 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.70 |
4+ |
4.93 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.50 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.93 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.27 |
3.81 |
3.36 |

2-3 goals |
2.58 |
3.57 |
3.02 |

4+ goals |
2.45 |
3.12 |
3.69 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.43 |
3.18 |

Un 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.81 |
3.36 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.82 |
2.62 |

Un 2.5 |
2.81 |
2.55 |
3.97 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.45 |
3.12 |
3.69 |

Un 3.5 |
2.46 |
3.65 |
3.13 |

Goal-Goal |
3.16 |
2.50 |
3.52 |

No Goal |
1.98 |
6.37 |
2.97 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
5.82 |
2.55 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.37 |
2.95 |

####
Go to Top

###
Oxford vs Doncaster at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oxford** and **Doncaster** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **14 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oxford |
2.41 |
2.97 |
-7.8 |

Draw |
3.48 |
3.68 |
-1.6 |

Doncaster |
2.85 |
2.56 |
4.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
2.07 |
-5.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.94 |
0.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Doncaster, Under 2.5 (4 %, 0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oxford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oxford** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance** at home**.

Oxford,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Rochdale |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Charlton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Accrington |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Sep |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Doncaster** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Doncaster** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Doncaster** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Doncaster** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Doncaster’s performance** as a guest**.

Doncaster,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Doncaster scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Doncaster was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Plymouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Ipswich |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Sep |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oxford** and the red line for guest team, **Doncaster. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oxford |
30% |
33% |
23% |
14% |

Doncaster |
23% |
38% |
27% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Doncaster** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.16** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oxford** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Doncaster** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.08** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.89 |

1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.18 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.18 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.43 |
3.72 |
2.27 |

2-3 goals |
2.96 |
4.06 |
2.41 |

4+ goals |
2.60 |
3.03 |
3.51 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.83 |
3.66 |
2.68 |

Un 1.5 |
3.43 |
3.72 |
2.27 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |
6.13 |
2.48 |

Un 2.5 |
4.06 |
2.67 |
2.64 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.60 |
3.03 |
3.51 |

Un 3.5 |
3.10 |
3.94 |
2.36 |

Goal-Goal |
3.03 |
2.66 |
3.41 |

No Goal |
2.89 |
6.67 |
1.98 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
5.25 |
2.63 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.08 |
6.67 |
2.01 |

####
Go to Top

###
Northampton vs Accrington at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Northampton** and **Accrington** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **14 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Northampton |
2.71 |
2.60 |
1.6 |

Draw |
3.22 |
3.82 |
-4.9 |

Accrington |
2.70 |
2.82 |
-1.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.09 |
1.94 |
3.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
2.06 |
-8.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Northampton, Over 2.5 (1.6 %, 3.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Northampton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Northampton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance** at home**.

Northampton,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Wigan |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Plymouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Oct |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Accrington** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Accrington** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance** as a guest**.

Accrington,** as a guest**, had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

20 Oct |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Sep |
Burton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Sep |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Northampton** and the red line for guest team, **Accrington. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Northampton |
28% |
29% |
26% |
18% |

Accrington |
25% |
37% |
23% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Accrington** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.01** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Northampton** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Accrington** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.6** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
4.03 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.72 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.72 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.44 |
3.49 |
2.36 |

2-3 goals |
2.37 |
4.52 |
2.80 |

4+ goals |