Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Sunderland vs Milton Keynes Dons at 14 November 2020
Shrewsbury vs Swindon at 14 November 2020
Oxford vs Doncaster at 14 November 2020
Northampton vs Accrington at 14 November 2020
Hull vs Burton at 14 November 2020
Crewe vs Peterboro at 14 November 2020
Bristol Rvs vs Fleetwood Town at 14 November 2020
AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan at 14 November 2020
Plymouth vs Portsmouth at 16 November 2020
Sunderland vs Milton Keynes Dons at 14 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and Milton Keynes Dons for League One (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sunderland |
1.75 |
1.84 |
-2.8 |
|
Draw |
3.65 |
3.98 |
-2.3 |
|
Milton Keynes Dons |
4.81 |
4.85 |
-0.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.12 |
-1.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.89 |
-3.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sunderland in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Nov |
Ipswich |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Rochdale |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Charlton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Sep |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance as a guest.
Milton Keynes Dons, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Nov |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Wigan |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Oct |
Oxford |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Gillingham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Ipswich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Milton Keynes Dons.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sunderland |
15% |
36% |
29% |
20% |
|
Milton Keynes Dons |
40% |
36% |
14% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.62 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.83 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.53 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
16.13 |
0-1 |
3.82 |
|
1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.94 |
|
2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
4.50 |
|
3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |
|
5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |
|
Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |
|
NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.81 |
4.23 |
4.76 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.73 |
3.99 |
5.79 |
|
4+ goals |
2.22 |
3.64 |
3.64 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.86 |
3.88 |
4.91 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.81 |
4.23 |
4.76 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
7.72 |
3.68 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.76 |
6.86 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.22 |
3.64 |
3.64 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.76 |
4.07 |
5.40 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.50 |
2.66 |
4.47 |
|
No Goal |
1.45 |
7.97 |
5.37 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
6.16 |
3.33 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.53 |
7.97 |
5.18 |
Go to Top
Shrewsbury vs Swindon at 14 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Swindon for League One (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Shrewsbury |
2.13 |
2.45 |
-6.1 |
|
Draw |
3.41 |
3.53 |
-1.0 |
|
Swindon |
3.40 |
3.24 |
1.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.91 |
2.25 |
-7.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
1.80 |
2.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon, Under 2.5 (1.5 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Shrewsbury in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Nov |
Burton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Rochdale |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Gillingham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Sep |
Plymouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Swindon in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance as a guest.
Swindon, as a guest, had no wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Nov |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Hull |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Sep |
Burton |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Sep |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Swindon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Shrewsbury |
23% |
40% |
23% |
14% |
|
Swindon |
32% |
36% |
23% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.48 goals and Swindon to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Shrewsbury to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.27 goals and Swindon to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.50 |
|
1 |
4.74 |
2-3 |
1.96 |
|
2 |
3.70 |
4+ |
4.93 |
|
3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.50 |
|
5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
|
6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |
|
Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.93 |
|
NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.27 |
3.81 |
3.36 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.58 |
3.57 |
3.02 |
|
4+ goals |
2.45 |
3.12 |
3.69 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.54 |
3.43 |
3.18 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.81 |
3.36 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.82 |
2.62 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.81 |
2.55 |
3.97 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.45 |
3.12 |
3.69 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.46 |
3.65 |
3.13 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.16 |
2.50 |
3.52 |
|
No Goal |
1.98 |
6.37 |
2.97 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
5.82 |
2.55 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.37 |
2.95 |
Go to Top
Oxford vs Doncaster at 14 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Oxford and Doncaster for League One (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Oxford |
2.41 |
2.97 |
-7.8 |
|
Draw |
3.48 |
3.68 |
-1.6 |
|
Doncaster |
2.85 |
2.56 |
4.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
2.07 |
-5.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.94 |
0.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Doncaster, Under 2.5 (4 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Oxford in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance at home.
Oxford, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Nov |
Rochdale |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Charlton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Oct |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Sep |
Accrington |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Sep |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Doncaster in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Doncaster in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Doncaster’s performance as a guest.
Doncaster, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Doncaster was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Nov |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Plymouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Ipswich |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Wigan |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Sep |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oxford and the red line for guest team, Doncaster.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Oxford |
30% |
33% |
23% |
14% |
|
Doncaster |
23% |
38% |
27% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.38 goals and Doncaster to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.21 goals and Doncaster to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.89 |
|
1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
1.99 |
|
2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.18 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |
|
5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |
|
Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.18 |
|
NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.43 |
3.72 |
2.27 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.96 |
4.06 |
2.41 |
|
4+ goals |
2.60 |
3.03 |
3.51 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.83 |
3.66 |
2.68 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.43 |
3.72 |
2.27 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.30 |
6.13 |
2.48 |
|
Un 2.5 |
4.06 |
2.67 |
2.64 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.60 |
3.03 |
3.51 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.10 |
3.94 |
2.36 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.03 |
2.66 |
3.41 |
|
No Goal |
2.89 |
6.67 |
1.98 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
5.25 |
2.63 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.08 |
6.67 |
2.01 |
Go to Top
Northampton vs Accrington at 14 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Northampton and Accrington for League One (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Northampton |
2.71 |
2.60 |
1.6 |
|
Draw |
3.22 |
3.82 |
-4.9 |
|
Accrington |
2.70 |
2.82 |
-1.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.09 |
1.94 |
3.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
2.06 |
-8.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Northampton, Over 2.5 (1.6 %, 3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Northampton in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance at home.
Northampton, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Nov |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Wigan |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Oct |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Plymouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
10 Oct |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Accrington in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance as a guest.
Accrington, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
20 Oct |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Sep |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Sep |
Burton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Sep |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Northampton and the red line for guest team, Accrington.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Northampton |
28% |
29% |
26% |
18% |
|
Accrington |
25% |
37% |
23% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.18 goals and Accrington to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.33 goals and Accrington to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
4.03 |
|
1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.72 |
|
3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |
|
5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
|
6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
|
Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.72 |
|
NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.44 |
3.49 |
2.36 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.37 |
4.52 |
2.80 |
|
4+ goals |