2020 11 13 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Sunderland vs Milton Keynes Dons at 14 November 2020
Shrewsbury vs Swindon at 14 November 2020
Oxford vs Doncaster at 14 November 2020
Northampton vs Accrington at 14 November 2020
Hull vs Burton at 14 November 2020
Crewe vs Peterboro at 14 November 2020
Bristol Rvs vs Fleetwood Town at 14 November 2020
AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan at 14 November 2020
Plymouth vs Portsmouth at 16 November 2020


Sunderland vs Milton Keynes Dons at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and Milton Keynes Dons for League One (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sunderland

1.75

1.84

-2.8

Draw

3.65

3.98

-2.3

Milton Keynes Dons

4.81

4.85

-0.2

Over 2.5

2.04

2.12

-1.8

Under 2.5

1.78

1.89

-3.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sunderland in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Nov

Ipswich

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Gillingham

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Rochdale

A

2

2

D

O

G

24 Oct

Portsmouth

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Oct

Crewe

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Swindon

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Charlton

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Sep

Peterboro

H

1

0

W

U

N


Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance as a guest.
Milton Keynes Dons, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Nov

Northampton

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

AFC Wimbledon

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Oct

Wigan

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N

20 Oct

Oxford

A

2

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

Gillingham

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Oct

Portsmouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Ipswich

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Milton Keynes Dons.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sunderland

15%

36%

29%

20%

Milton Keynes Dons

40%

36%

14%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.62 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.83 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.53 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.13

0-1

3.82

1

5.00

2-3

1.94

2

3.76

4+

4.50

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.82

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.81

4.23

4.76

2-3 goals

1.73

3.99

5.79

4+ goals

2.22

3.64

3.64

Ov 1.5

1.86

3.88

4.91

Un 1.5

1.81

4.23

4.76

Ov 2.5

1.67

7.72

3.68

Un 2.5

2.03

2.76

6.86

Ov 3.5

2.22

3.64

3.64

Un 3.5

1.76

4.07

5.40

Goal-Goal

2.50

2.66

4.47

No Goal

1.45

7.97

5.37

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

6.16

3.33

NG+Un 2.5

1.53

7.97

5.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Shrewsbury vs Swindon at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Swindon for League One (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Shrewsbury

2.13

2.45

-6.1

Draw

3.41

3.53

-1.0

Swindon

3.40

3.24

1.5

Over 2.5

1.91

2.25

-7.9

Under 2.5

1.90

1.80

2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Swindon, Under 2.5 (1.5 %, 2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Shrewsbury in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Nov

Burton

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Peterboro

A

1

5

L

O

G

27 Oct

Fleetwood Town

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Rochdale

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Oct

Bristol Rvs

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

AFC Wimbledon

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Gillingham

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Sep

Plymouth

A

1

1

D

U

G


Swindon in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance as a guest.
Swindon, as a guest, had no wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Nov

Plymouth

A

2

4

L

O

G

31 Oct

Hull

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Northampton

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Sunderland

H

0

2

L

U

N

10 Oct

AFC Wimbledon

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Oct

Peterboro

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Sep

Burton

H

4

2

W

O

G

19 Sep

Blackpool

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Swindon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Shrewsbury

23%

40%

23%

14%

Swindon

32%

36%

23%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.48 goals and Swindon to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Shrewsbury to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.27 goals and Swindon to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.50

1

4.74

2-3

1.96

2

3.70

4+

4.93

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.50

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.26

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.80

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.93

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.27

3.81

3.36

2-3 goals

2.58

3.57

3.02

4+ goals

2.45

3.12

3.69

Ov 1.5

2.54

3.43

3.18

Un 1.5

2.27

3.81

3.36

Ov 2.5

2.12

6.82

2.62

Un 2.5

2.81

2.55

3.97

Ov 3.5

2.45

3.12

3.69

Un 3.5

2.46

3.65

3.13

Goal-Goal

3.16

2.50

3.52

No Goal

1.98

6.37

2.97

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

5.82

2.55

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

6.37

2.95


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Oxford vs Doncaster at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Oxford and Doncaster for League One (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oxford

2.41

2.97

-7.8

Draw

3.48

3.68

-1.6

Doncaster

2.85

2.56

4.0

Over 2.5

1.86

2.07

-5.5

Under 2.5

1.96

1.94

0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Doncaster, Under 2.5 (4 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oxford in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance at home.
Oxford, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Nov

Rochdale

H

3

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Fleetwood Town

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Oct

Charlton

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Oct

Milton Keynes Dons

H

3

2

W

O

G

17 Oct

Peterboro

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Oct

Gillingham

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Sep

Accrington

A

4

1

W

O

G

19 Sep

Sunderland

H

0

2

L

U

N


Doncaster in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Doncaster in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Doncaster’s performance as a guest.
Doncaster, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Doncaster was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Nov

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Lincoln

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Plymouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Crewe

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Oct

Ipswich

H

4

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Portsmouth

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Wigan

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Sep

Bristol Rvs

H

4

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oxford and the red line for guest team, Doncaster.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oxford

30%

33%

23%

14%

Doncaster

23%

38%

27%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.38 goals and Doncaster to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oxford to score 1.21 goals and Doncaster to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.89

1

5.32

2-3

1.99

2

3.88

4+

4.18

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.89

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.43

3.72

2.27

2-3 goals

2.96

4.06

2.41

4+ goals

2.60

3.03

3.51

Ov 1.5

2.83

3.66

2.68

Un 1.5

3.43

3.72

2.27

Ov 2.5

2.30

6.13

2.48

Un 2.5

4.06

2.67

2.64

Ov 3.5

2.60

3.03

3.51

Un 3.5

3.10

3.94

2.36

Goal-Goal

3.03

2.66

3.41

No Goal

2.89

6.67

1.98

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.33

5.25

2.63

NG+Un 2.5

3.08

6.67

2.01


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Northampton vs Accrington at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Northampton and Accrington for League One (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Northampton

2.71

2.60

1.6

Draw

3.22

3.82

-4.9

Accrington

2.70

2.82

-1.6

Over 2.5

2.09

1.94

3.7

Under 2.5

1.76

2.06

-8.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Northampton, Over 2.5 (1.6 %, 3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Northampton in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance at home.
Northampton, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Nov

Milton Keynes Dons

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Wigan

A

3

2

W

O

G

27 Oct

Portsmouth

A

0

4

L

O

N

24 Oct

Charlton

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Oct

Swindon

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Plymouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

10 Oct

Peterboro

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Oct

Bristol Rvs

A

0

2

L

U

N


Accrington in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance as a guest.
Accrington, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

20 Oct

Fleetwood Town

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Ipswich

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Oct

Rochdale

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Sep

Oxford

H

1

4

L

O

G

19 Sep

Burton

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Sep

Peterboro

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Northampton and the red line for guest team, Accrington.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Northampton

28%

29%

26%

18%

Accrington

25%

37%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.18 goals and Accrington to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.33 goals and Accrington to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

4.03

1

5.65

2-3

2.07

2

4.22

4+

3.72

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.02

Un 1.5

4.03

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

1.94

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.72

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.44

3.49

2.36

2-3 goals

2.37

4.52

2.80

4+ goals