# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Bolton vs Salford at 13 November 2020**** Harrogate vs Crawley Town at 14 November 2020**** Cambridge vs Barrow at 14 November 2020**** Bradford vs Exeter at 14 November 2020**** Walsall vs Southend at 14 November 2020**** Port Vale vs Tranmere at 14 November 2020**** Morecambe vs Stevenage at 14 November 2020**** Grimsby vs Newport County at 14 November 2020**** Forest Green vs Mansfield at 14 November 2020**** Colchester vs Leyton Orient at 14 November 2020**** Carlisle vs Cheltenham at 14 November 2020**** Oldham vs Scunthorpe at 14 November 2020**

###
Bolton vs Salford at 13 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bolton** and **Salford** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **13 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bolton |
3.33 |
3.62 |
-2.4 |

Draw |
3.31 |
3.76 |
-3.6 |

Salford |
2.24 |
2.18 |
1.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.09 |
-0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.92 |
-4.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Salford (1.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** at home**.

Bolton,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Oct |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Barrow |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Oct |
Grimsby |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Harrogate |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Salford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salford** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance** as a guest**.

Salford,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Southend |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Oct |
Port Vale |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Tranmere |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Sep |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bolton** and the red line for guest team, **Salford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bolton |
35% |
33% |
20% |
12% |

Salford |
17% |
41% |
26% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bolton** to score **1.02 ** goals and **Salford** to score **1.36 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and the guest team **Salford ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bolton** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Salford** to score **1.4 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the guest team **Salford ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.24 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.66 |
4.28 |
1.81 |

2-3 goals |
3.65 |
3.79 |
2.16 |

4+ goals |
2.88 |
3.28 |
2.88 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.36 |
3.61 |
2.35 |

Un 1.5 |
4.66 |
4.28 |
1.81 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.59 |
6.67 |
2.15 |

Un 2.5 |
5.73 |
2.69 |
2.21 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.88 |
3.28 |
2.88 |

Un 3.5 |
3.94 |
3.94 |
2.03 |

Goal-Goal |
3.27 |
2.62 |
3.20 |

No Goal |
4.14 |
7.61 |
1.59 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.46 |
5.61 |
2.40 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
4.26 |
7.61 |
1.64 |

####
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###
Harrogate vs Crawley Town at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Harrogate** and **Crawley Town** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **14 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Harrogate |
2.11 |
2.49 |
-7.2 |

Draw |
3.37 |
3.66 |
-2.4 |

Crawley Town |
3.56 |
3.07 |
4.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.23 |
-6.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.81 |
1.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crawley Town, Under 2.5 (4.5 %, 1.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Harrogate** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Harrogate** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance** at home**.

Harrogate,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Oct |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Crawley Town** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crawley Town** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance** as a guest**.

Crawley Town,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Walsall |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Cambridge |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Tranmere |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Salford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Morecambe |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

10 Oct |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Southend |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Harrogate** and the red line for guest team, **Crawley Town. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Harrogate |
30% |
29% |
28% |
13% |

Crawley Town |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Harrogate** to score **1.48 ** goals and **Crawley Town** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the home team **Harrogate ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Harrogate** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Crawley Town** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.64 |
0-1 |
3.40 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.76 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.40 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.08 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.20 |
3.13 |
2.72 |

2-3 goals |
2.11 |
4.68 |
3.20 |

4+ goals |
2.84 |
2.88 |
3.33 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.28 |
3.94 |
3.24 |

Un 1.5 |
3.20 |
3.13 |
2.72 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.14 |
2.87 |

Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.76 |
3.25 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.84 |
2.88 |
3.33 |

Un 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.95 |
3.00 |

Goal-Goal |
2.70 |
2.68 |
3.90 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
5.53 |
2.56 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.12 |
3.04 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
5.53 |
2.62 |

####
Go to Top

###
Cambridge vs Barrow at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cambridge** and **Barrow** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **14 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cambridge |
2.14 |
2.03 |
2.5 |

Draw |
3.33 |
3.89 |
-4.3 |

Barrow |
3.54 |
4.00 |
-3.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.96 |
2.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.04 |
-6.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cambridge, Over 2.5 (2.5 %, 2.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cambridge** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cambridge** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance** at home**.

Cambridge,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cambridge scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Port Vale |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Scunthorpe |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

10 Oct |
Newport County |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Barrow** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barrow** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance** as a guest**.

Barrow,** as a guest**, had one win, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barrow was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Mansfield |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Bolton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Oct |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cambridge** and the red line for guest team, **Barrow. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cambridge |
19% |
32% |
28% |
21% |

Barrow |
34% |
36% |
21% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cambridge** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Barrow** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Cambridge ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cambridge** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Barrow** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the home team **Cambridge ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
4.12 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
4.12 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.27 |
3.68 |
3.47 |

2-3 goals |
1.91 |
4.43 |
4.01 |

4+ goals |
2.11 |
3.24 |
4.60 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.97 |
3.95 |
4.19 |

Un 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.68 |
3.47 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
6.53 |
3.64 |

Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
2.73 |
4.43 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.24 |
4.60 |

Un 3.5 |
2.01 |
4.16 |
3.82 |

Goal-Goal |
2.43 |
2.78 |
4.38 |

No Goal |
1.72 |
7.08 |
3.62 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
5.38 |
3.44 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.88 |
7.08 |
3.41 |

####
Go to Top

###
Bradford vs Exeter at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bradford** and **Exeter** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **14 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bradford |
2.65 |
2.76 |
-1.5 |

Draw |
3.43 |
3.62 |
-1.5 |

Exeter |
2.60 |
2.76 |
-2.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.21 |
-5.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.83 |
0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (0.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bradford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bradford** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance** at home**.

Bradford,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Southend |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Oct |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Mansfield |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Oct |
Harrogate |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Sep |
Stevenage |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Exeter** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Exeter** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance** as a guest**.

Exeter,** as a guest**, had one win, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Exeter scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Exeter was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Morecambe |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Scunthorpe |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Crawley Town |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Walsall |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Southend |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Cambridge |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bradford** and the red line for guest team, **Exeter. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bradford |
30% |
33% |
24% |
13% |

Exeter |
29% |
35% |
22% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Exeter** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bradford** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Exeter** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.38** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.42 |

1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.42 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.01 |
3.32 |