Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Bolton vs Salford at 13 November 2020
Harrogate vs Crawley Town at 14 November 2020
Cambridge vs Barrow at 14 November 2020
Bradford vs Exeter at 14 November 2020
Walsall vs Southend at 14 November 2020
Port Vale vs Tranmere at 14 November 2020
Morecambe vs Stevenage at 14 November 2020
Grimsby vs Newport County at 14 November 2020
Forest Green vs Mansfield at 14 November 2020
Colchester vs Leyton Orient at 14 November 2020
Carlisle vs Cheltenham at 14 November 2020
Oldham vs Scunthorpe at 14 November 2020
Bolton vs Salford at 13 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Bolton and Salford for League Two (England), which will take place on 13 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Bolton |
3.33 |
3.62 |
-2.4 |
|
Draw |
3.31 |
3.76 |
-3.6 |
|
Salford |
2.24 |
2.18 |
1.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.09 |
-0.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.92 |
-4.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Salford (1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Bolton in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance at home.
Bolton, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Nov |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Barrow |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
10 Oct |
Grimsby |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Harrogate |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Salford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance as a guest.
Salford, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Nov |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Southend |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Port Vale |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Tranmere |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Sep |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bolton and the red line for guest team, Salford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Bolton |
35% |
33% |
20% |
12% |
|
Salford |
17% |
41% |
26% |
16% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.02 goals and Salford to score 1.36 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the guest team Salford to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.09 goals and Salford to score 1.4 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the guest team Salford to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
3.83 |
|
1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.24 |
|
3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |
|
5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |
|
NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
4.66 |
4.28 |
1.81 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.65 |
3.79 |
2.16 |
|
4+ goals |
2.88 |
3.28 |
2.88 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.36 |
3.61 |
2.35 |
|
Un 1.5 |
4.66 |
4.28 |
1.81 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.59 |
6.67 |
2.15 |
|
Un 2.5 |
5.73 |
2.69 |
2.21 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.88 |
3.28 |
2.88 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.94 |
3.94 |
2.03 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.27 |
2.62 |
3.20 |
|
No Goal |
4.14 |
7.61 |
1.59 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.46 |
5.61 |
2.40 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
4.26 |
7.61 |
1.64 |
Go to Top
Harrogate vs Crawley Town at 14 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Harrogate and Crawley Town for League Two (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Harrogate |
2.11 |
2.49 |
-7.2 |
|
Draw |
3.37 |
3.66 |
-2.4 |
|
Crawley Town |
3.56 |
3.07 |
4.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.23 |
-6.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.81 |
1.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Crawley Town, Under 2.5 (4.5 %, 1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Harrogate in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance at home.
Harrogate, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Nov |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Oct |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Crawley Town in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crawley Town in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Crawley Town’s performance as a guest.
Crawley Town, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Crawley Town scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crawley Town was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Nov |
Walsall |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Cambridge |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Tranmere |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Salford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Morecambe |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Southend |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Harrogate and the red line for guest team, Crawley Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Harrogate |
30% |
29% |
28% |
13% |
|
Crawley Town |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.48 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Harrogate to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.24 goals and Crawley Town to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.64 |
0-1 |
3.40 |
|
1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.76 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |
|
4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.40 |
|
5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |
|
Gg |
2.08 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |
|
NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.20 |
3.13 |
2.72 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.11 |
4.68 |
3.20 |
|
4+ goals |
2.84 |
2.88 |
3.33 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.28 |
3.94 |
3.24 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.20 |
3.13 |
2.72 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.14 |
2.87 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.76 |
3.25 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.84 |
2.88 |
3.33 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.95 |
3.00 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.70 |
2.68 |
3.90 |
|
No Goal |
2.33 |
5.53 |
2.56 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.12 |
3.04 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
5.53 |
2.62 |
Go to Top
Cambridge vs Barrow at 14 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Cambridge and Barrow for League Two (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Cambridge |
2.14 |
2.03 |
2.5 |
|
Draw |
3.33 |
3.89 |
-4.3 |
|
Barrow |
3.54 |
4.00 |
-3.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.96 |
2.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.04 |
-6.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Cambridge, Over 2.5 (2.5 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Cambridge in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cambridge in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Cambridge’s performance at home.
Cambridge, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cambridge scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cambridge was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Nov |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Port Vale |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Scunthorpe |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Newport County |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Exeter |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Barrow in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barrow in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance as a guest.
Barrow, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barrow was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Nov |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Mansfield |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Bolton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cambridge and the red line for guest team, Barrow.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Cambridge |
19% |
32% |
28% |
21% |
|
Barrow |
34% |
36% |
21% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.41 goals and Barrow to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Cambridge to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cambridge to score 1.51 goals and Barrow to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Cambridge to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
4.12 |
|
1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
3.95 |
|
3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
4.12 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
|
Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |
|
NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.27 |
3.68 |
3.47 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.91 |
4.43 |
4.01 |
|
4+ goals |
2.11 |
3.24 |
4.60 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.97 |
3.95 |
4.19 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.68 |
3.47 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
6.53 |
3.64 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
2.73 |
4.43 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.24 |
4.60 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.01 |
4.16 |
3.82 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.43 |
2.78 |
4.38 |
|
No Goal |
1.72 |
7.08 |
3.62 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
5.38 |
3.44 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.88 |
7.08 |
3.41 |
Go to Top
Bradford vs Exeter at 14 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Bradford and Exeter for League Two (England), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Bradford |
2.65 |
2.76 |
-1.5 |
|
Draw |
3.43 |
3.62 |
-1.5 |
|
Exeter |
2.60 |
2.76 |
-2.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.21 |
-5.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.83 |
0.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Bradford in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bradford in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance at home.
Bradford, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bradford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Nov |
Southend |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
20 Oct |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Mansfield |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Oct |
Harrogate |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Sep |
Stevenage |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Exeter in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Exeter in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance as a guest.
Exeter, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Exeter was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Nov |
Morecambe |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Scunthorpe |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Crawley Town |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Walsall |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Southend |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Cambridge |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bradford and the red line for guest team, Exeter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Bradford |
30% |
33% |
24% |
13% |
|
Exeter |
29% |
35% |
22% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.23 goals and Exeter to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bradford to score 1.19 goals and Exeter to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.42 |
|
1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
4.61 |
|
3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.42 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
|
6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
|
Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.01 |
3.32 |