2020 11 13 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Zaragoza vs Oviedo at 13 November 2020
Fuenlabrada vs Espanol at 14 November 2020
Girona vs Mallorca at 14 November 2020
Lugo vs Albacete at 14 November 2020
Almeria vs Mirandes at 14 November 2020
Castellon vs Cartagena at 15 November 2020
Leganes vs Alcorcon at 15 November 2020
Logrones vs Sabadell at 15 November 2020
Ponferradina vs Malaga at 15 November 2020
Las Palmas vs Tenerife at 16 November 2020
Sp Gijon vs Vallecano at 16 November 2020


Zaragoza vs Oviedo at 13 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Oviedo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 13 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Zaragoza

2.59

2.25

5.8

Draw

2.89

3.58

-6.7

Oviedo

3.03

3.62

-5.4

Over 2.5

2.42

2.35

1.2

Under 2.5

1.56

1.74

-6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Zaragoza, Over 2.5 (5.8 %, 1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Zaragoza in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zaragoza in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance at home.
Zaragoza, at home, had one win, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Tenerife

A

0

1

L

U

N

04 Nov

Girona

H

2

2

D

O

G

01 Nov

Mallorca

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Oct

Mirandes

A

0

1

L

U

N

25 Oct

Sabadell

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Oct

Leganes

A

0

1

L

U

N

18 Oct

Malaga

H

1

2

L

O

G

11 Oct

Albacete

H

1

0

W

U

N


Oviedo in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oviedo in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance as a guest.
Oviedo, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Castellon

H

4

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Las Palmas

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Oct

Logrones

H

2

3

L

O

G

25 Oct

Leganes

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Oct

Vallecano

H

0

0

D

U

N

18 Oct

Girona

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Oct

Sp Gijon

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Albacete

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zaragoza and the red line for guest team, Oviedo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Zaragoza

25%

35%

25%

15%

Oviedo

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.12 goals and Oviedo to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zaragoza to score 1.3 goals and Oviedo to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Zaragoza to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.25

1

4.59

2-3

2.00

2

3.75

4+

5.24

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.63

Un 1.5

3.25

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.36

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.74

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

5.24

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46

3.42

3.31

2-3 goals

2.11

3.87

3.72

4+ goals

2.30

3.18

3.98

Ov 1.5

2.16

3.65

3.79

Un 1.5

2.46

3.42

3.31

Ov 2.5

1.85

7.05

3.16

Un 2.5

2.67

2.63

4.08

Ov 3.5

2.30

3.18

3.98

Un 3.5

2.24

3.68

3.56

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.53

4.20

No Goal

1.94

5.77

3.22

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.99

5.83

3.07

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

5.77

3.16


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Fuenlabrada vs Espanol at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Espanol for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fuenlabrada

4.21

2.79

12.1

Draw

2.90

3.46

-5.6

Espanol

2.09

2.82

-12.4

Over 2.5

2.77

2.46

4.5

Under 2.5

1.42

1.68

-10.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Fuenlabrada, Over 2.5 (12.1 %, 4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fuenlabrada in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fuenlabrada in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance at home.
Fuenlabrada, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Alcorcon

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Tenerife

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Oct

Vallecano

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Almeria

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Oct

Logrones

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Cartagena

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Oct

Castellon

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Girona

A

1

0

W

U

N


Espanol in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Espanol in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Espanol’s performance as a guest.
Espanol, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Espanol was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Lugo

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Malaga

A

3

0

W

O

N

28 Oct

Ponferradina

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Tenerife

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Oct

Mirandes

H

2

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

Vallecano

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Oct

Alcorcon

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Oct

Sabadell

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fuenlabrada and the red line for guest team, Espanol.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fuenlabrada

30%

38%

23%

10%

Espanol

32%

34%

23%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 0.75 goals and Espanol to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.93 goals in the game and the guest team Espanol to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.12 goals and Espanol to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.31

0-1

3.11

1

4.44

2-3

2.00

2

3.68

4+

5.59

3

4.41

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

8.13

Un 1.5

3.11

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.46

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

5.59

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.64

3.32

3.13

2-3 goals

2.74

3.87

2.65

4+ goals

3.31

2.89

2.84

Ov 1.5

2.87

3.55

2.70

Un 1.5

2.64

3.32

3.13

Ov 2.5

2.49

6.55

2.24

Un 2.5

3.05

2.63

3.43

Ov 3.5

3.31

2.89

2.84

Un 3.5

2.70

3.63

2.82

Goal-Goal

3.58

2.48

3.15

No Goal

2.33

5.43

2.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.61

5.55

2.29

NG+Un 2.5

2.38

5.43

2.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Girona vs Mallorca at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Girona and Mallorca for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Girona

2.63

3.07

-5.4

Draw

2.82

3.56

-7.4

Mallorca

3.05

2.54

6.6

Over 2.5

2.64

2.26

6.4

Under 2.5

1.46

1.79

-12.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Mallorca, Over 2.5 (6.6 %, 6.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Girona in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Girona in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Girona’s performance at home.
Girona, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Girona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Nov

Zaragoza

A

2

2

D

O

G

01 Nov

Almeria

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Oct

Cartagena

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Castellon

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Oct

Lugo

A

0

3

L

O

N

18 Oct

Oviedo

H

1

0

W

U

N

11 Oct

Leganes

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Oct

Fuenlabrada

H

0

1

L

U

N


Mallorca in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mallorca in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mallorca’s performance as a guest.
Mallorca, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Mallorca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Ponferradina

H

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Zaragoza

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Oct

Malaga

H

3

1

W

O

G

26 Oct

Alcorcon

A

2

0

W

U

N

22 Oct

Albacete

H

0

0

D

U

N

18 Oct

Mirandes

A

0

0

D

U

N

11 Oct

Lugo

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Tenerife

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Girona and the red line for guest team, Mallorca.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Girona

28%

41%

22%

8%

Mallorca

29%

31%

28%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Girona to score 1.05 goals and Mallorca to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.99 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Girona to score 1.11 goals and Mallorca to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.13 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.48

1

4.88

2-3

1.95

2

3.69

4+

5.00

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.48

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.26

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

5.00

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.50

3.30

2-3 goals

3.25

4.11

2.23

4+ goals

4.00

2.70

2.63

Ov 1.5

3.43

3.59

2.33

Un 1.5

2.43

3.50

3.30

Ov 2.5

3.10

5.99

1.96

Un 2.5

3.05

2.70

3.32

Ov 3.5

4.00

2.70

2.63

Un 3.5

2.90

3.87

2.52

Goal-Goal

4.29

2.56

2.66

No Goal

2.37

5.99

2.43

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.24

5.20

2.01

NG+Un 2.5

2.37

5.99

2.58


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Lugo vs Albacete at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Lugo and Albacete for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lugo

2.30

1.89

9.4

Draw

3.12

3.89

-6.3

Albacete

3.24

4.67

-9.5

Over 2.5

2.40

2.15

4.8

Under 2.5

1.57

1.87

-10.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lugo, Over 2.5 (9.4 %, 4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lugo in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lugo in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance at home.
Lugo, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Espanol

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Nov

Vallecano

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Oct

Tenerife

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Logrones

A

3

2

W

O

G

21 Oct

Girona

H

3

0

W

O

N

17 Oct

Castellon

A

1

0

W

U

N

11 Oct

Mallorca

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Oct

Cartagena

A

1

2

L

O

G


Albacete in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Albacete in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance as a guest.
Albacete, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 6.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Albacete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Nov

Leganes

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Cartagena

A

1

3

L

O

G

28 Oct

Las Palmas

H

1

1

D

U

G

25 Oct

Vallecano

H

2

1

W

O

G

22 Oct

Mallorca

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Sabadell

H

3

0

W

O

N

11 Oct

Zaragoza

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Oct

Oviedo

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lugo and the red line for guest team, Albacete.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lugo

18%

34%

27%

21%

Albacete

40%

36%

18%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.2 goals and Albacete to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.5 goals and Albacete to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Lugo to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.65

1

4.98

2-3

1.96

2

3.85

4+

4.61

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.65

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.87

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.03