2020 11 13 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Virtus Entella vs Venezia at 14 November 2020


Virtus Entella vs Venezia at 14 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Virtus Entella and Venezia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 14 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Virtus Entella

2.69

2.79

-1.3

Draw

2.96

3.18

-2.3

Venezia

2.82

3.06

-2.8

Over 2.5

2.20

2.42

-4.1

Under 2.5

1.67

1.71

-1.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Virtus Entella in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Virtus Entella in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Virtus Entella’s performance at home.
Virtus Entella, at home, had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Virtus Entella scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Virtus Entella was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Lecce

H

1

5

L

O

G

31 Oct

Brescia

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Oct

Frosinone

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Reggina

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Oct

Reggiana

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Sep

Cosenza

A

0

0

D

U

N


Venezia in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance as a guest.
Venezia, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 1 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Reggiana

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Empoli

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Pescara

H

4

0

W

O

N

17 Oct

Cremonese

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Oct

Frosinone

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Sep

Vicenza

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Virtus Entella and the red line for guest team, Venezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Virtus Entella

23%

48%

16%

13%

Venezia

27%

44%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.16 goals and Venezia to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Virtus Entella to score 1.2 goals and Venezia to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.13

0-1

3.44

1

4.37

2-3

1.94

2

3.39

4+

5.13

3

4.52

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.44

5

23.81

Ov 2.5

2.40

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

1.77

Ov 3.5

5.13

NoG

2.28

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.26

4.69

2.91

2-3 goals

3.49

2.48

3.22

4+ goals

2.32

4.33

2.95

Ov 1.5

3.06

2.81

3.15

Un 1.5

2.26

4.69

2.91

Ov 2.5

2.20

9.24

2.29

Un 2.5

3.41

2.17

4.07

Ov 3.5

2.32

4.33

2.95

Un 3.5

2.91

2.99

3.10

Goal-Goal

3.69

2.23

3.57

No Goal

2.11

7.06

2.61

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.33

7.91

2.25

NG+Un 2.5

2.20

7.06

2.62


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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