# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Hartlepool vs Wrexham at 17 November 2020**** Halifax vs Notts County at 17 November 2020**** Eastleigh vs Wealdstone at 17 November 2020**** Dover Athletic vs Woking at 17 November 2020**** Bromley vs Boreham Wood at 17 November 2020**** Barnet vs King’s Lynn at 17 November 2020**** Altrincham vs Chesterfield at 17 November 2020**** Aldershot vs Maidenhead at 17 November 2020**

###
Hartlepool vs Wrexham at 17 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Hartlepool** and **Wrexham** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **17 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Hartlepool |
2.26 |
2.72 |
-7.5 |

Draw |
3.42 |
3.66 |
-1.9 |

Wrexham |
2.94 |
2.79 |
1.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.87 |
2.01 |
-3.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.99 |
-2.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wrexham (1.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Hartlepool** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hartlepool** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance** at home**.

Hartlepool,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 6 results of Hartlepool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Oct |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Oct |
Altrincham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Oct |
Bromley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Maidenhead |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Oct |
Chesterfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Aldershot |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Wrexham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wrexham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance** as a guest**.

Wrexham,** as a guest**, had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 6 results of Wrexham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

27 Oct |
Barnet |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Wealdstone |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Oct |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Yeovil |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Oct |
Solihull |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Boreham Wood |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Hartlepool** and the red line for guest team, **Wrexham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Hartlepool |
24% |
38% |
23% |
15% |

Wrexham |
27% |
34% |
24% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Hartlepool** to score **1.4 ** goals and **Wrexham** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Hartlepool** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Wrexham** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.38 |
0-1 |
3.97 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |

Gg |
1.81 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
2.24 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.42 |
3.88 |
3.04 |

2-3 goals |
2.77 |
3.75 |
2.69 |

4+ goals |
2.96 |
3.32 |
2.77 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.83 |
3.59 |
2.72 |

Un 1.5 |
2.42 |
3.88 |
3.04 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |
6.54 |
2.28 |

Un 2.5 |
3.04 |
2.55 |
3.59 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.96 |
3.32 |
2.77 |

Un 3.5 |
2.64 |
3.79 |
2.80 |

Goal-Goal |
3.39 |
2.66 |
3.04 |

No Goal |
2.18 |
6.86 |
2.53 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.58 |
5.54 |
2.31 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.86 |
2.64 |

####
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###
Halifax vs Notts County at 17 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Halifax** and **Notts County** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **17 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Halifax |
2.95 |
2.10 |
13.7 |

Draw |
3.42 |
3.83 |
-3.1 |

Notts County |
2.24 |
3.80 |
-18.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.94 |
-2.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
2.06 |
-3.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Halifax (13.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Halifax** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Halifax scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Halifax** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Halifax scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance** at home**.

Halifax,** at home**, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 6 results of Halifax was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Nov |
Wealdstone |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Woking |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Oct |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Oct |
Boreham Wood |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Oct |
Stockport |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Dag and Red |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Notts County** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Notts County** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance** as a guest**.

Notts County,** as a guest**, had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Notts County scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 6 results of Notts County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Aldershot |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Maidenhead |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Oct |
Sutton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Barnet |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

07 Oct |
Altrincham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Dover Athletic |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Halifax** and the red line for guest team, **Notts County. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Halifax |
19% |
34% |
25% |
22% |

Notts County |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Halifax** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Notts County** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Halifax** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Notts County** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and the home team **Halifax ** to win by **0.39** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
4.15 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
3.80 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
4.15 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.06 |

Gg |
1.81 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.80 |

NoG |
2.22 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.15 |
3.95 |
3.54 |

2-3 goals |
2.06 |
3.99 |
3.78 |

4+ goals |
2.14 |
3.46 |
4.11 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
3.79 |
3.89 |

Un 1.5 |
2.15 |
3.95 |
3.54 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
6.80 |
3.29 |

Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.61 |
4.54 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.14 |
3.46 |
4.11 |

Un 3.5 |
2.09 |
3.98 |
3.70 |

Goal-Goal |
2.58 |
2.75 |
4.03 |

No Goal |
1.71 |
7.39 |
3.55 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
5.62 |
3.12 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
7.39 |
3.37 |

####
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###
Eastleigh vs Wealdstone at 17 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Eastleigh** and **Wealdstone** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **17 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Eastleigh |
1.97 |
2.42 |
-9.4 |

Draw |
3.90 |
3.79 |
0.7 |

Wealdstone |
3.29 |
3.10 |
1.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.53 |
2.03 |
-16.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.42 |
1.97 |
9.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Wealdstone, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 1.9 %, 9.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Eastleigh** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Eastleigh** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Eastleigh** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Eastleigh** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance** at home**.

Eastleigh,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Eastleigh** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 6 results of Eastleigh was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Oct |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Dover Athletic |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Aldershot |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Oct |
Altrincham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Oct |
Torquay |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Barnet |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Wealdstone** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wealdstone** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance** as a guest**.

Wealdstone,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 6 results of Wealdstone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

10 Nov |
Halifax |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Altrincham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
King’s Lynn |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Chesterfield |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Wrexham |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Oct |
Stockport |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Oct |
Dag and Red |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Oct |
Yeovil |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Eastleigh** and the red line for guest team, **Wealdstone. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Eastleigh |
27% |
30% |
24% |
19% |

Wealdstone |
30% |
35% |
22% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Eastleigh** to score **1.82 ** goals and **Wealdstone** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.06** goals in the game and the home team **Eastleigh ** to win by **0.58** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Eastleigh** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Wealdstone** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.20 |
0-1 |
3.72 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
4.00 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.00 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.99 |
3.28 |
2.77 |

2-3 goals |
2.23 |
4.57 |
3.00 |

4+ goals |
2.34 |
3.25 |
3.79 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.27 |
4.01 |
3.23 |

Un 1.5 |
2.99 |
3.28 |
2.77 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.38 |
2.98 |

Un 2.5 |
3.12 |
2.72 |
3.22 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.34 |
3.25 |
3.79 |

Un 3.5 |
2.46 |
4.01 |
2.91 |

Goal-Goal |
2.63 |
2.79 |
3.84 |

No Goal |
2.25 |
6.00 |
2.58 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
5.22 |
3.05 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.47 |
6.00 |
2.55 |

####
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###
Dover Athletic vs Woking at 17 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Dover Athletic** and **Woking** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **17 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Dover Athletic |
3.38 |
2.70 |
7.5 |

Draw |
3.45 |
3.65 |
-1.6 |

Woking |
2.01 |
2.81 |
-14.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.01 |
-4.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.92 |
1.99 |
-1.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Dover Athletic (7.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Dover Athletic** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dover Athletic** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dover Athletic’s performance** at home**.

Dover Athletic,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Dover Athletic was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Oct |
Altrincham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Eastleigh |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Torquay |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Oct |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Oct |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Oct |
Bromley |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Notts County |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Woking** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Woking** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance** as a guest**.

Woking,** as a guest**, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Woking was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Nov |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
King’s Lynn |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Boreham Wood |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Halifax |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

13 Oct |
Dag and Red |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Chesterfield |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Oct |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Solihull |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Dover Athletic** and the red line for guest team, **Woking. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Dover Athletic |
23% |
39% |
23% |
15% |

Woking |
27% |
34% |
24% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Dover Athletic** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Woking** to score **1.53 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and the guest team **Woking ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Dover Athletic** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Woking** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
4.02 |

1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
3.95 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |

NoG |
2.27 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.95 |
3.11 |

2-3 goals |
2.78 |
3.68 |
2.72 |

4+ goals |
2.98 |
3.33 |
2.75 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.84 |
3.55 |
2.73 |

Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.95 |
3.11 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.46 |
6.57 |
2.27 |

Un 2.5 |
2.99 |
2.53 |
3.70 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.98 |
3.33 |
2.75 |

Un 3.5 |
2.62 |
3.77 |
2.84 |

Goal-Goal |
3.43 |
2.65 |
3.02 |

No Goal |
2.13 |
6.98 |
2.59 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.60 |
5.58 |
2.29 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.19 |
6.98 |
2.70 |

####
Go to Top

###
Bromley vs Boreham Wood at 17 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bromley** and **Boreham Wood** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **17 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bromley |
2.58 |
2.38 |
3.3 |

Draw |
3.48 |
3.76 |
-2.1 |

Boreham Wood |
2.51 |
3.17 |
-8.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.01 |
-6.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.01 |
1.99 |
0.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bromley, Under 2.5 (3.3 %, 0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bromley** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bromley** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance** at home**.

Bromley,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 6 results of Bromley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |