2020 11 17 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Hartlepool vs Wrexham at 17 November 2020
Halifax vs Notts County at 17 November 2020
Eastleigh vs Wealdstone at 17 November 2020
Dover Athletic vs Woking at 17 November 2020
Bromley vs Boreham Wood at 17 November 2020
Barnet vs King’s Lynn at 17 November 2020
Altrincham vs Chesterfield at 17 November 2020
Aldershot vs Maidenhead at 17 November 2020


Hartlepool vs Wrexham at 17 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Hartlepool and Wrexham for Conference (England), which will take place on 17 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Hartlepool

2.26

2.72

-7.5

Draw

3.42

3.66

-1.9

Wrexham

2.94

2.79

1.8

Over 2.5

1.87

2.01

-3.7

Under 2.5

1.91

1.99

-2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wrexham (1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Hartlepool in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance at home.
Hartlepool, at home, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Oct

Torquay

H

0

5

L

O

N

27 Oct

Altrincham

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Oct

Bromley

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Oct

Maidenhead

A

4

0

W

O

N

06 Oct

Chesterfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Aldershot

H

2

1

W

O

G


Wrexham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance as a guest.
Wrexham, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Oct

Barnet

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Wealdstone

A

3

4

L

O

G

12 Oct

Maidenhead

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Oct

Yeovil

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Oct

Solihull

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Oct

Boreham Wood

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hartlepool and the red line for guest team, Wrexham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Hartlepool

24%

38%

23%

15%

Wrexham

27%

34%

24%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 1.4 goals and Wrexham to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hartlepool to score 1.28 goals and Wrexham to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

3.97

1

5.35

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

3.97

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.97

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.24

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.42

3.88

3.04

2-3 goals

2.77

3.75

2.69

4+ goals

2.96

3.32

2.77

Ov 1.5

2.83

3.59

2.72

Un 1.5

2.42

3.88

3.04

Ov 2.5

2.45

6.54

2.28

Un 2.5

3.04

2.55

3.59

Ov 3.5

2.96

3.32

2.77

Un 3.5

2.64

3.79

2.80

Goal-Goal

3.39

2.66

3.04

No Goal

2.18

6.86

2.53

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.58

5.54

2.31

NG+Un 2.5

2.24

6.86

2.64


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Halifax vs Notts County at 17 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Halifax and Notts County for Conference (England), which will take place on 17 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Halifax

2.95

2.10

13.7

Draw

3.42

3.83

-3.1

Notts County

2.24

3.80

-18.3

Over 2.5

1.85

1.94

-2.5

Under 2.5

1.91

2.06

-3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Halifax (13.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Halifax in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance at home.
Halifax, at home, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Nov

Wealdstone

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Woking

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Oct

Yeovil

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Oct

Boreham Wood

A

0

0

D

U

N

06 Oct

Stockport

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Dag and Red

H

2

0

W

U

N


Notts County in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance as a guest.
Notts County, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 6 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Aldershot

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Maidenhead

H

2

3

L

O

G

13 Oct

Sutton

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Oct

Barnet

H

4

2

W

O

G

07 Oct

Altrincham

H

3

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Dover Athletic

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Halifax and the red line for guest team, Notts County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Halifax

19%

34%

25%

22%

Notts County

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.16 goals and Notts County to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.49 goals and Notts County to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Halifax to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

4.15

1

5.56

2-3

2.00

2

4.08

4+

3.80

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.95

Un 1.5

4.15

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.93

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

3.80

NoG

2.22

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.15

3.95

3.54

2-3 goals

2.06

3.99

3.78

4+ goals

2.14

3.46

4.11

Ov 1.5

2.09

3.79

3.89

Un 1.5

2.15

3.95

3.54

Ov 2.5

1.82

6.80

3.29

Un 2.5

2.52

2.61

4.54

Ov 3.5

2.14

3.46

4.11

Un 3.5

2.09

3.98

3.70

Goal-Goal

2.58

2.75

4.03

No Goal

1.71

7.39

3.55

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.00

5.62

3.12

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

7.39

3.37


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Eastleigh vs Wealdstone at 17 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Eastleigh and Wealdstone for Conference (England), which will take place on 17 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Eastleigh

1.97

2.42

-9.4

Draw

3.90

3.79

0.7

Wealdstone

3.29

3.10

1.9

Over 2.5

1.53

2.03

-16.1

Under 2.5

2.42

1.97

9.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Wealdstone, Under 2.5 (0.7 %, 1.9 %, 9.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Eastleigh in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance at home.
Eastleigh, at home, had one win, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 6 results of Eastleigh was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Oct

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Dover Athletic

A

2

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

Aldershot

H

2

2

D

O

G

10 Oct

Altrincham

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Oct

Torquay

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Barnet

A

5

1

W

O

G


Wealdstone in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance as a guest.
Wealdstone, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 6 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

10 Nov

Halifax

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Altrincham

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

King’s Lynn

A

3

2

W

O

G

20 Oct

Chesterfield

H

3

2

W

O

G

17 Oct

Wrexham

H

4

3

W

O

G

13 Oct

Stockport

H

2

5

L

O

G

10 Oct

Dag and Red

A

0

1

L

U

N

06 Oct

Yeovil

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Eastleigh and the red line for guest team, Wealdstone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Eastleigh

27%

30%

24%

19%

Wealdstone

30%

35%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.82 goals and Wealdstone to score 1.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.06 goals in the game and the home team Eastleigh to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.34 goals and Wealdstone to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.20

0-1

3.72

1

5.35

2-3

2.08

2

4.18

4+

4.00

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.72

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.00

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.99

3.28

2.77

2-3 goals

2.23

4.57

3.00

4+ goals

2.34

3.25

3.79

Ov 1.5

2.27

4.01

3.23

Un 1.5

2.99

3.28

2.77

Ov 2.5

1.97

6.38

2.98

Un 2.5

3.12

2.72

3.22

Ov 3.5

2.34

3.25

3.79

Un 3.5

2.46

4.01

2.91

Goal-Goal

2.63

2.79

3.84

No Goal

2.25

6.00

2.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.08

5.22

3.05

NG+Un 2.5

2.47

6.00

2.55


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Dover Athletic vs Woking at 17 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Dover Athletic and Woking for Conference (England), which will take place on 17 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dover Athletic

3.38

2.70

7.5

Draw

3.45

3.65

-1.6

Woking

2.01

2.81

-14.2

Over 2.5

1.85

2.01

-4.3

Under 2.5

1.92

1.99

-1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Dover Athletic (7.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Dover Athletic in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dover Athletic in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dover Athletic’s performance at home.
Dover Athletic, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Dover Athletic was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Oct

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Oct

Eastleigh

H

3

2

W

O

G

17 Oct

Torquay

A

0

2

L

U

N

13 Oct

Aldershot

H

0

5

L

O

N

10 Oct

Stockport

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Oct

Bromley

A

1

4

L

O

G

03 Oct

Notts County

H

1

0

W

U

N


Woking in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance as a guest.
Woking, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Yeovil

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

King’s Lynn

A

2

3

L

O

G

27 Oct

Boreham Wood

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Halifax

H

0

0

D

U

N

13 Oct

Dag and Red

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Oct

Chesterfield

A

0

4

L

O

N

06 Oct

Weymouth

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Solihull

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dover Athletic and the red line for guest team, Woking.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dover Athletic

23%

39%

23%

15%

Woking

27%

34%

24%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dover Athletic to score 1.05 goals and Woking to score 1.53 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the guest team Woking to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dover Athletic to score 1.29 goals and Woking to score 1.26 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.87

0-1

4.02

1

5.38

2-3

2.01

2

3.98

4+

3.95

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.17

Un 1.5

4.02

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.79

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.27

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.35

3.95

3.11

2-3 goals

2.78

3.68

2.72

4+ goals

2.98

3.33

2.75

Ov 1.5

2.84

3.55

2.73

Un 1.5

2.35

3.95

3.11

Ov 2.5

2.46

6.57

2.27

Un 2.5

2.99

2.53

3.70

Ov 3.5

2.98

3.33

2.75

Un 3.5

2.62

3.77

2.84

Goal-Goal

3.43

2.65

3.02

No Goal

2.13

6.98

2.59

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.60

5.58

2.29

NG+Un 2.5

2.19

6.98

2.70


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Bromley vs Boreham Wood at 17 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Bromley and Boreham Wood for Conference (England), which will take place on 17 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bromley

2.58

2.38

3.3

Draw

3.48

3.76

-2.1

Boreham Wood

2.51

3.17

-8.3

Over 2.5

1.79

2.01

-6.1

Under 2.5

2.01

1.99

0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bromley, Under 2.5 (3.3 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bromley in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance at home.
Bromley, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 6 results of Bromley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU