2020 11 17 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Swindon vs Accrington at 17 November 2020


Swindon vs Accrington at 17 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Swindon and Accrington for League One (England), which will take place on 17 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swindon

2.41

2.75

-5.1

Draw

3.38

3.66

-2.3

Accrington

2.93

2.75

2.2

Over 2.5

2.02

2.06

-1.0

Under 2.5

1.82

1.94

-3.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Accrington (2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swindon in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance at home.
Swindon, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Shrewsbury

A

3

3

D

O

G

03 Nov

Plymouth

A

2

4

L

O

G

31 Oct

Hull

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Northampton

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Sunderland

H

0

2

L

U

N

10 Oct

AFC Wimbledon

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Oct

Peterboro

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Sep

Burton

H

4

2

W

O

G


Accrington in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance as a guest.
Accrington, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Northampton

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Fleetwood Town

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Ipswich

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Oct

Rochdale

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Sep

Oxford

H

1

4

L

O

G

19 Sep

Burton

A

1

2

L

O

G

12 Sep

Peterboro

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swindon and the red line for guest team, Accrington.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swindon

28%

33%

23%

15%

Accrington

25%

37%

26%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.3 goals and Accrington to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.26 goals and Accrington to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.85

1

5.29

2-3

2.00

2

3.92

4+

4.15

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.85

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.15

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.10

3.66

2.48

2-3 goals

2.73

4.03

2.59

4+ goals

2.48

3.09

3.65

Ov 1.5

2.65

3.67

2.86

Un 1.5

3.10

3.66

2.48

Ov 2.5

2.19

6.23

2.61

Un 2.5

3.63

2.64

2.89

Ov 3.5

2.48

3.09

3.65

Un 3.5

2.85

3.90

2.55

Goal-Goal

2.94

2.66

3.52

No Goal

2.56

6.52

2.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.26

5.31

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.75

6.52

2.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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