2020 11 17 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Port Vale vs Scunthorpe at 17 November 2020


Port Vale vs Scunthorpe at 17 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Port Vale and Scunthorpe for League Two (England), which will take place on 17 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Port Vale

1.81

2.09

-7.4

Draw

3.49

3.85

-2.7

Scunthorpe

4.62

3.83

4.5

Over 2.5

2.21

1.97

5.5

Under 2.5

1.67

2.03

-10.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Scunthorpe, Over 2.5 (4.5 %, 5.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Port Vale in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Port Vale in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance at home.
Port Vale, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Tranmere

H

3

4

L

O

G

31 Oct

Southend

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Cheltenham

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Oldham

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Cambridge

A

1

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

Salford

H

1

0

W

U

N

10 Oct

Carlisle

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Oct

Morecambe

A

0

1

L

U

N


Scunthorpe in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance as a guest.
Scunthorpe, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Oldham

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Exeter

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Oct

Cheltenham

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Cambridge

H

0

5

L

O

N

10 Oct

Forest Green

H

1

4

L

O

G

03 Oct

Tranmere

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Sep

Carlisle

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Sep

Crawley Town

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Port Vale and the red line for guest team, Scunthorpe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Port Vale

20%

32%

28%

20%

Scunthorpe

32%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.5 goals and Scunthorpe to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Port Vale to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.48 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Port Vale to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

4.10

1

5.62

2-3

1.98

2

4.02

4+

3.95

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.10

Un 1.5

4.10

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

3.70

3.25

2-3 goals

1.93

4.31

4.00

4+ goals

2.18

3.29

4.22

Ov 1.5

2.01

3.90

4.07

Un 1.5

2.37

3.70

3.25

Ov 2.5

1.78

6.60

3.50

Un 2.5

2.54

2.69

4.25

Ov 3.5

2.18

3.29

4.22

Un 3.5

2.05

4.09

3.72

Goal-Goal

2.45

2.78

4.31

No Goal

1.78

7.00

3.40

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

5.48

3.38

NG+Un 2.5

1.94

7.00

3.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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