Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Bielefeld vs Leverkusen at 21 November 2020
Ein Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig at 21 November 2020
Hertha vs Dortmund at 21 November 2020
Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart at 21 November 2020
<a href=‘#M’gladbach’> M’gladbach vs Augsburg at 21 November 2020
Schalke 04 vs Wolfsburg at 21 November 2020
Bayern Munich vs Werder Bremen at 21 November 2020
FC Koln vs Union Berlin at 22 November 2020
Freiburg vs Mainz at 22 November 2020
Bielefeld vs Leverkusen at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Bielefeld and Leverkusen for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Bielefeld |
6.08 |
4.37 |
6.4 |
|
Draw |
4.34 |
4.24 |
0.5 |
|
Leverkusen |
1.55 |
1.87 |
-11.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.77 |
-3.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.30 |
-0.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Bielefeld, Draw (6.4 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Bielefeld in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bielefeld in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bielefeld’s performance at home.
Bielefeld, at home, had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bielefeld scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Bielefeld was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Union Berlin |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Dortmund |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
25 Oct |
Wolfsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Werder Bremen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Sep |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Sep |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Leverkusen in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leverkusen in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance as a guest.
Leverkusen, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Leverkusen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Nov |
M’gladbach |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
01 Nov |
Freiburg |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Oct |
Augsburg |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Mainz |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Stuttgart |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Sep |
RB Leipzig |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Sep |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bielefeld and the red line for guest team, Leverkusen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Bielefeld |
34% |
40% |
14% |
13% |
|
Leverkusen |
21% |
23% |
24% |
32% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 0.77 goals and Leverkusen to score 2.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the guest team Leverkusen to win by 1.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bielefeld to score 1.05 goals and Leverkusen to score 1.67 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the guest team Leverkusen to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
4.33 |
|
1 |
6.21 |
2-3 |
2.15 |
|
2 |
4.93 |
4+ |
3.28 |
|
3 |
3.82 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |
|
4 |
5.26 |
Un 1.5 |
4.33 |
|
5 |
13.33 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
|
6+ |
25.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
|
Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.28 |
|
NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.44 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.82 |
3.30 |
2.92 |
|
2-3 goals |
5.41 |
5.00 |
1.63 |
|
4+ goals |
5.00 |
4.18 |
1.78 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
5.24 |
4.64 |
1.68 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.82 |
3.30 |
2.92 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
4.76 |
7.77 |
1.51 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.95 |
2.66 |
2.70 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
5.00 |
4.18 |
1.78 |
|
Un 3.5 |
4.14 |
4.27 |
1.91 |
|
Goal-Goal |
5.66 |
3.17 |
1.97 |
|
No Goal |
3.49 |
6.79 |
1.77 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
4.66 |
5.93 |
1.62 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.10 |
6.79 |
2.12 |
Go to Top
Ein Frankfurt vs RB Leipzig at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Ein Frankfurt and RB Leipzig for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Ein Frankfurt |
3.79 |
3.24 |
4.5 |
|
Draw |
3.93 |
3.85 |
0.5 |
|
RB Leipzig |
1.91 |
2.32 |
-9.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.55 |
1.85 |
-10.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.47 |
2.18 |
5.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Ein Frankfurt, Draw, Under 2.5 (4.5 %, 0.5 %, 5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Ein Frankfurt in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ein Frankfurt in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Ein Frankfurt’s performance at home.
Ein Frankfurt, at home, had one win, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ein Frankfurt scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 7 results of Ein Frankfurt was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Stuttgart |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Bayern Munich |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
18 Oct |
FC Koln |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Hoffenheim |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
25 Sep |
Hertha |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Sep |
Bielefeld |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
RB Leipzig in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, RB Leipzig in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at RB Leipzig’s performance as a guest.
RB Leipzig, as a guest, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of RB Leipzig was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Freiburg |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
31 Oct |
M’gladbach |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Hertha |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Augsburg |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Schalke 04 |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
26 Sep |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Sep |
Mainz |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ein Frankfurt and the red line for guest team, RB Leipzig.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Ein Frankfurt |
29% |
36% |
19% |
16% |
|
RB Leipzig |
22% |
33% |
23% |
22% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.15 goals and RB Leipzig to score 1.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.06 goals in the game and the guest team RB Leipzig to win by 0.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ein Frankfurt to score 1.23 goals and RB Leipzig to score 1.46 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
16.13 |
0-1 |
4.29 |
|
1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.13 |
|
2 |
4.44 |
4+ |
3.39 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |
|
4 |
5.62 |
Un 1.5 |
4.29 |
|
5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
|
6+ |
27.78 |
Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
|
Gg |
1.80 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.39 |
|
NoG |
2.27 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.03 |
3.76 |
2.48 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.36 |
4.05 |
2.20 |
|
4+ goals |
3.24 |
3.64 |
2.40 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.31 |
3.88 |
2.27 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.03 |
3.76 |
2.48 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.86 |
6.67 |
2.00 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.85 |
2.57 |
2.84 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.24 |
3.64 |
2.40 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.24 |
3.95 |
2.28 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.62 |
2.83 |
2.70 |
|
No Goal |
2.86 |
7.11 |
1.96 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.86 |
5.44 |
2.14 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.87 |
7.11 |
2.12 |
Go to Top
Hertha vs Dortmund at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Hertha and Dortmund for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Hertha |
4.74 |
3.92 |
4.4 |
|
Draw |
4.17 |
4.18 |
-0.1 |
|
Dortmund |
1.71 |
1.98 |
-8.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.82 |
-8.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.50 |
2.22 |
5.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Hertha, Under 2.5 (4.4 %, 5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Hertha in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance at home.
Hertha, at home, had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Hertha was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Augsburg |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
01 Nov |
Wolfsburg |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
24 Oct |
RB Leipzig |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Stuttgart |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Oct |
Bayern Munich |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
25 Sep |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Sep |
Werder Bremen |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Dortmund in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dortmund in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance as a guest.
Dortmund, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 7 results of Dortmund was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Bayern Munich |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Bielefeld |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Hoffenheim |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Freiburg |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
26 Sep |
Augsburg |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Sep |
M’gladbach |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hertha and the red line for guest team, Dortmund.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Hertha |
33% |
39% |
16% |
12% |
|
Dortmund |
25% |
21% |
24% |
30% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hertha to score 0.97 goals and Dortmund to score 2.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.04 goals in the game and the guest team Dortmund to win by 1.1 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.07 goals and Dortmund to score 1.59 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team Dortmund to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
4.02 |
|
1 |
6.02 |
2-3 |
2.19 |
|
2 |
5.00 |
4+ |
3.41 |
|
3 |
3.89 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
5.56 |
Un 1.5 |
4.02 |
|
5 |
13.16 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
6+ |
27.03 |
Un 2.5 |
2.23 |
|
Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.41 |
|
NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.57 |
3.00 |
3.61 |
|
2-3 goals |
4.48 |
5.64 |
1.67 |
|
4+ goals |
5.23 |
3.96 |
1.80 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
4.75 |
4.84 |
1.72 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.57 |
3.00 |
3.61 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
4.62 |
7.43 |
1.54 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.30 |
2.74 |
3.01 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
5.23 |
3.96 |
1.80 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.55 |
4.30 |
2.06 |
|
Goal-Goal |
5.68 |
3.23 |
1.95 |
|
No Goal |
2.99 |
6.01 |
2.00 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
4.76 |
5.66 |
1.63 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.71 |
6.01 |
2.47 |
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Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Hoffenheim and Stuttgart for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Hoffenheim |
2.38 |
3.37 |
-12.3 |
|
Draw |
3.84 |
4.05 |
-1.4 |
|
Stuttgart |
2.72 |
2.19 |
8.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.49 |
1.80 |
-11.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.59 |
2.25 |
5.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Stuttgart, Under 2.5 (8.9 %, 5.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 11%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Hoffenheim in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hoffenheim in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance at home.
Hoffenheim, at home, had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Hoffenheim was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Nov |
Wolfsburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Nov |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
25 Oct |
Werder Bremen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Dortmund |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Sep |
Bayern Munich |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Sep |
FC Koln |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
Stuttgart in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stuttgart in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance as a guest.
Stuttgart, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Stuttgart was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
30 Oct |
Schalke 04 |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Oct |
FC Koln |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Hertha |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Leverkusen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Sep |
Mainz |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Sep |
Freiburg |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hoffenheim and the red line for guest team, Stuttgart.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Hoffenheim |
32% |
38% |
10% |
20% |
|
Stuttgart |
27% |
22% |
24% |
27% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.66 goals and Stuttgart to score 1.5 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hoffenheim to score 1.18 goals and Stuttgart to score 1.52 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the guest team Stuttgart to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.88 |
|
1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.27 |
|
2 |
5.38 |
4+ |
3.32 |
|
3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |
|
5 |
13.16 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
|
6+ |
18.52 |
Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
|
Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.32 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.53 |
2.97 |
3.74 |
|
2-3 goals |
4.20 |
5.44 |
1.73 |
|
4+ goals |
3.31 |
3.81 |
2.30 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.79 |
4.64 |
1.92 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.53 |
2.97 |
3.74 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
3.31 |
7.04 |
1.80 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.42 |
2.64 |
3.04 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.31 |
3.81 |
2.30 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.38 |
4.16 |
2.16 |
|
Goal-Goal |
4.34 |
3.09 |
2.24 |
|
No Goal |
2.74 |
5.80 |
2.16 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.63 |
5.24 |
1.87 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
5.80 |
2.49 |
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<a id=‘M’gladbach’>
M’gladbach vs Augsburg at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between M’gladbach and Augsburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
M’gladbach |
1.52 |
2.15 |
-19.3 |
|
Draw |
4.60 |
3.89 |
4.0 |
|
Augsburg |