Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Coventry vs Birmingham at 20 November 2020
Middlesbrough vs Norwich at 21 November 2020
Wycombe vs Brentford at 21 November 2020
Swansea vs Rotherham at 21 November 2020
Stoke vs Huddersfield at 21 November 2020
QPR vs Watford at 21 November 2020
Barnsley vs Nott’m Forest at 21 November 2020
Millwall vs Cardiff at 21 November 2020
Luton vs Blackburn at 21 November 2020
Bristol City vs Derby at 21 November 2020
Bournemouth vs Reading at 21 November 2020
Preston vs Sheffield Weds at 21 November 2020
Coventry vs Birmingham at 20 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Coventry and Birmingham for Championship (England), which will take place on 20 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Coventry |
2.82 |
2.86 |
-0.5 |
|
Draw |
3.15 |
3.68 |
-4.6 |
|
Birmingham |
2.62 |
2.65 |
-0.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.20 |
-1.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.83 |
-3.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Coventry in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Coventry in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance at home.
Coventry, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Coventry was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Watford |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
04 Nov |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Oct |
Reading |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Middlesbrough |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Blackburn |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
20 Oct |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Oct |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
Birmingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Birmingham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance as a guest.
Birmingham, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
04 Nov |
Wycombe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Preston |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Oct |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Oct |
QPR |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Oct |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Oct |
Stoke |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Coventry and the red line for guest team, Birmingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Coventry |
32% |
34% |
20% |
14% |
|
Birmingham |
30% |
32% |
23% |
15% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.14 goals and Birmingham to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.17 goals and Birmingham to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.20 |
0-1 |
3.29 |
|
1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.11 |
|
2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
4.48 |
|
3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |
|
4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.29 |
|
5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
|
6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
|
Gg |
2.12 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |
|
NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.95 |
3.10 |
2.95 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.79 |
4.39 |
2.42 |
|
4+ goals |
2.90 |
3.33 |
2.82 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.82 |
3.98 |
2.53 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.95 |
3.10 |
2.95 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |
6.78 |
2.25 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.32 |
2.66 |
3.11 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.90 |
3.33 |
2.82 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.85 |
3.78 |
2.60 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.32 |
2.70 |
3.05 |
|
No Goal |
2.54 |
5.40 |
2.37 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.56 |
5.43 |
2.35 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.66 |
5.40 |
2.49 |
Go to Top
Middlesbrough vs Norwich at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Middlesbrough and Norwich for Championship (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Middlesbrough |
2.85 |
1.99 |
15.2 |
|
Draw |
3.22 |
3.79 |
-4.7 |
|
Norwich |
2.55 |
4.29 |
-15.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.20 |
2.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.83 |
-7.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Middlesbrough, Over 2.5 (15.2 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Middlesbrough in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Middlesbrough in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 1 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance at home.
Middlesbrough, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 11 points, 73.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
03 Nov |
Blackburn |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Coventry |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Cardiff |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Bristol City |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Reading |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Barnsley |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Norwich in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Norwich in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance as a guest.
Norwich, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Norwich was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Nov |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Bristol City |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Birmingham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Rotherham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Derby |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Middlesbrough and the red line for guest team, Norwich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Middlesbrough |
24% |
31% |
22% |
23% |
|
Norwich |
39% |
41% |
9% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.05 goals and Norwich to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.44 goals and Norwich to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.75 |
0-1 |
3.23 |
|
1 |
4.61 |
2-3 |
2.12 |
|
2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
4.57 |
|
3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |
|
4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.23 |
|
5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
|
6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
|
Gg |
2.15 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |
|
NoG |
1.87 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.58 |
3.33 |
3.20 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.75 |
3.77 |
6.12 |
|
4+ goals |
1.92 |
4.76 |
3.71 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.80 |
4.04 |
5.07 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.33 |
3.20 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
9.89 |
3.99 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.50 |
4.58 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.92 |
4.76 |
3.71 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.01 |
3.58 |
4.49 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.26 |
2.72 |
5.28 |
|
No Goal |
1.80 |
5.75 |
3.69 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
7.39 |
3.86 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
5.75 |
3.53 |
Go to Top
Wycombe vs Brentford at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Wycombe and Brentford for Championship (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Wycombe |
6.06 |
3.33 |
13.5 |
|
Draw |
4.00 |
3.72 |
1.9 |
|
Brentford |
1.57 |
2.32 |
-20.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.22 |
-7.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.93 |
1.82 |
3.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe, Draw, Under 2.5 (13.5 %, 1.9 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Wycombe in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance at home.
Wycombe, at home, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Nov |
Birmingham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Watford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Reading |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Millwall |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Luton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Brentford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance as a guest.
Brentford, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Middlesbrough |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
03 Nov |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Luton |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
24 Oct |
Stoke |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Oct |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Coventry |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
04 Oct |
Preston |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wycombe and the red line for guest team, Brentford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Wycombe |
41% |
28% |
17% |
14% |
|
Brentford |
30% |
29% |
22% |
19% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 0.7 goals and Brentford to score 1.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the guest team Brentford to win by 1.15 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.04 goals and Brentford to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
8.06 |
0-1 |
3.07 |
|
1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.21 |
|
2 |
4.50 |
4+ |
4.52 |
|
3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.48 |
|
4 |
7.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.07 |
|
5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
|
6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
Gg |
2.42 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |
|
NoG |
1.70 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.84 |
2.63 |
2.79 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.12 |
5.59 |
2.00 |
|
4+ goals |
3.16 |
3.45 |
2.54 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.13 |
4.65 |
2.15 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.84 |
2.63 |
2.79 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.79 |
7.06 |
2.00 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.97 |
2.67 |
2.67 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.16 |
3.45 |
2.54 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.39 |
3.80 |
2.26 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.44 |
2.85 |
2.79 |
|
No Goal |
3.26 |
4.73 |
2.07 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.77 |
5.19 |
2.24 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.38 |
4.73 |
2.28 |
Go to Top
Swansea vs Rotherham at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Swansea and Rotherham for Championship (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Swansea |
1.74 |
1.75 |
-0.3 |
|
Draw |
3.66 |
4.15 |
-3.2 |
|
Rotherham |
4.96 |
5.35 |
-1.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.11 |
2.02 |
2.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.98 |
-6.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Swansea in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance at home.
Swansea, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Nov |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Blackburn |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Stoke |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Bristol City |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Oct |
Coventry |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Huddersfield |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Millwall |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Rotherham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance as a guest.
Rotherham, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Nov |
Preston |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
04 Nov |
Luton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Oct |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
24 Oct |
Reading |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
20 Oct |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Huddersfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swansea and the red line for guest team, Rotherham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Swansea |
18% |
29% |
28% |
25% |
|
Rotherham |
40% |
40% |
12% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.6 goals and Rotherham to score 0.76 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.61 goals and Rotherham to score 0.89 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.94 |
|
1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
1.95 |
|
2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.31 |
|
3 |
3.80 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |
|
5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |
|
NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.23 |
3.68 |
3.58 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.57 |
4.39 |
7.34 |