# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Coventry vs Birmingham at 20 November 2020**** Middlesbrough vs Norwich at 21 November 2020**** Wycombe vs Brentford at 21 November 2020**** Swansea vs Rotherham at 21 November 2020**** Stoke vs Huddersfield at 21 November 2020**** QPR vs Watford at 21 November 2020**** Barnsley vs Nott’m Forest at 21 November 2020**** Millwall vs Cardiff at 21 November 2020**** Luton vs Blackburn at 21 November 2020**** Bristol City vs Derby at 21 November 2020**** Bournemouth vs Reading at 21 November 2020**** Preston vs Sheffield Weds at 21 November 2020**

###
Coventry vs Birmingham at 20 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Coventry** and **Birmingham** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **20 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Coventry |
2.82 |
2.86 |
-0.5 |

Draw |
3.15 |
3.68 |
-4.6 |

Birmingham |
2.62 |
2.65 |
-0.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.20 |
-1.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.83 |
-3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Coventry** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Coventry** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance** at home**.

Coventry,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Coventry scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Watford |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Nov |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Oct |
Reading |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Middlesbrough |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Blackburn |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Oct |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Oct |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Birmingham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Birmingham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance** as a guest**.

Birmingham,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Birmingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Nov |
Wycombe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Preston |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Oct |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
QPR |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Stoke |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Coventry** and the red line for guest team, **Birmingham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Coventry |
32% |
34% |
20% |
14% |

Birmingham |
30% |
32% |
23% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Coventry** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Birmingham** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Coventry** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Birmingham** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.20 |
0-1 |
3.29 |

1 |
4.85 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
4.48 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
3.29 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.12 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |

NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.95 |
3.10 |
2.95 |

2-3 goals |
2.79 |
4.39 |
2.42 |

4+ goals |
2.90 |
3.33 |
2.82 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.82 |
3.98 |
2.53 |

Un 1.5 |
2.95 |
3.10 |
2.95 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |
6.78 |
2.25 |

Un 2.5 |
3.32 |
2.66 |
3.11 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.90 |
3.33 |
2.82 |

Un 3.5 |
2.85 |
3.78 |
2.60 |

Goal-Goal |
3.32 |
2.70 |
3.05 |

No Goal |
2.54 |
5.40 |
2.37 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.56 |
5.43 |
2.35 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.66 |
5.40 |
2.49 |

####
Go to Top

###
Middlesbrough vs Norwich at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Middlesbrough** and **Norwich** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Middlesbrough |
2.85 |
1.99 |
15.2 |

Draw |
3.22 |
3.79 |
-4.7 |

Norwich |
2.55 |
4.29 |
-15.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.20 |
2.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.83 |
-7.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Middlesbrough, Over 2.5 (15.2 %, 2.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Middlesbrough** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Middlesbrough** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 1 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance** at home**.

Middlesbrough,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 11 points, 73.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Brentford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Blackburn |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Coventry |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Cardiff |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Bristol City |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Reading |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Barnsley |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Norwich** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Norwich** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance** as a guest**.

Norwich,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Norwich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Norwich was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Bristol City |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Birmingham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Rotherham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Derby |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Middlesbrough** and the red line for guest team, **Norwich. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Middlesbrough |
24% |
31% |
22% |
23% |

Norwich |
39% |
41% |
9% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Middlesbrough** to score **1.05 ** goals and **Norwich** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.19** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.09** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Middlesbrough** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Norwich** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and the home team **Middlesbrough ** to win by **0.51** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.75 |
0-1 |
3.23 |

1 |
4.61 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
4.57 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.23 |

5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
2.15 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |

NoG |
1.87 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.58 |
3.33 |
3.20 |

2-3 goals |
1.75 |
3.77 |
6.12 |

4+ goals |
1.92 |
4.76 |
3.71 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.80 |
4.04 |
5.07 |

Un 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.33 |
3.20 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
9.89 |
3.99 |

Un 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.50 |
4.58 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.92 |
4.76 |
3.71 |

Un 3.5 |
2.01 |
3.58 |
4.49 |

Goal-Goal |
2.26 |
2.72 |
5.28 |

No Goal |
1.80 |
5.75 |
3.69 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
7.39 |
3.86 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
5.75 |
3.53 |

####
Go to Top

###
Wycombe vs Brentford at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wycombe** and **Brentford** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wycombe |
6.06 |
3.33 |
13.5 |

Draw |
4.00 |
3.72 |
1.9 |

Brentford |
1.57 |
2.32 |
-20.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.22 |
-7.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.93 |
1.82 |
3.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wycombe, Draw, Under 2.5 (13.5 %, 1.9 %, 3.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wycombe** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wycombe** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance** at home**.

Wycombe,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Nov |
Birmingham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Watford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Reading |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Millwall |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Luton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Brentford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brentford** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance** as a guest**.

Brentford,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Brentford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Middlesbrough |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Swansea |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Luton |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Oct |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Stoke |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Oct |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Coventry |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Preston |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wycombe** and the red line for guest team, **Brentford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wycombe |
41% |
28% |
17% |
14% |

Brentford |
30% |
29% |
22% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wycombe** to score **0.7 ** goals and **Brentford** to score **1.85 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and the guest team **Brentford ** to win by **1.15** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wycombe** to score **1.04 ** goals and **Brentford** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.25** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.06 |
0-1 |
3.07 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.21 |

2 |
4.50 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.48 |

4 |
7.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.07 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.42 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
1.70 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.84 |
2.63 |
2.79 |

2-3 goals |
3.12 |
5.59 |
2.00 |

4+ goals |
3.16 |
3.45 |
2.54 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.13 |
4.65 |
2.15 |

Un 1.5 |
3.84 |
2.63 |
2.79 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.79 |
7.06 |
2.00 |

Un 2.5 |
3.97 |
2.67 |
2.67 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.16 |
3.45 |
2.54 |

Un 3.5 |
3.39 |
3.80 |
2.26 |

Goal-Goal |
3.44 |
2.85 |
2.79 |

No Goal |
3.26 |
4.73 |
2.07 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.77 |
5.19 |
2.24 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.38 |
4.73 |
2.28 |

####
Go to Top

###
Swansea vs Rotherham at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swansea** and **Rotherham** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swansea |
1.74 |
1.75 |
-0.3 |

Draw |
3.66 |
4.15 |
-3.2 |

Rotherham |
4.96 |
5.35 |
-1.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.11 |
2.02 |
2.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.98 |
-6.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swansea** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swansea** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance** at home**.

Swansea,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Swansea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Blackburn |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Stoke |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Bristol City |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Coventry |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Huddersfield |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Millwall |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Rotherham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rotherham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance** as a guest**.

Rotherham,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rotherham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Preston |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Nov |
Luton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Stoke |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Oct |
Sheffield Weds |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Reading |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Oct |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Huddersfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swansea** and the red line for guest team, **Rotherham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swansea |
18% |
29% |
28% |
25% |

Rotherham |
40% |
40% |
12% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swansea** to score **1.6 ** goals and **Rotherham** to score **0.76 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and the home team **Swansea ** to win by **0.84** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swansea** to score **1.61 ** goals and **Rotherham** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Swansea ** to win by **0.72** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.94 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.31 |

3 |
3.80 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.23 |
3.68 |
3.58 |

2-3 goals |
1.57 |
4.39 |
7.34 |