2020 11 19 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Coventry vs Birmingham at 20 November 2020
Middlesbrough vs Norwich at 21 November 2020
Wycombe vs Brentford at 21 November 2020
Swansea vs Rotherham at 21 November 2020
Stoke vs Huddersfield at 21 November 2020
QPR vs Watford at 21 November 2020
Barnsley vs Nott’m Forest at 21 November 2020
Millwall vs Cardiff at 21 November 2020
Luton vs Blackburn at 21 November 2020
Bristol City vs Derby at 21 November 2020
Bournemouth vs Reading at 21 November 2020
Preston vs Sheffield Weds at 21 November 2020


Coventry vs Birmingham at 20 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Coventry and Birmingham for Championship (England), which will take place on 20 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Coventry

2.82

2.86

-0.5

Draw

3.15

3.68

-4.6

Birmingham

2.62

2.65

-0.4

Over 2.5

2.14

2.20

-1.3

Under 2.5

1.73

1.83

-3.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Coventry in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Coventry in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Coventry’s performance at home.
Coventry, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Coventry scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Coventry was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Watford

A

2

3

L

O

G

04 Nov

Nott’m Forest

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Oct

Reading

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Oct

Middlesbrough

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Blackburn

H

0

4

L

O

N

20 Oct

Swansea

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Brentford

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Oct

Bournemouth

H

1

3

L

O

G


Birmingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Birmingham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Birmingham’s performance as a guest.
Birmingham, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Birmingham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Birmingham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Bournemouth

H

1

3

L

O

G

04 Nov

Wycombe

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Preston

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Oct

Huddersfield

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

QPR

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Oct

Norwich

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Sheffield Weds

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Oct

Stoke

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Coventry and the red line for guest team, Birmingham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Coventry

32%

34%

20%

14%

Birmingham

30%

32%

23%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.14 goals and Birmingham to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Coventry to score 1.17 goals and Birmingham to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.20

0-1

3.29

1

4.85

2-3

2.11

2

4.12

4+

4.48

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.14

Un 1.5

3.29

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.12

Ov 3.5

4.48

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.95

3.10

2.95

2-3 goals

2.79

4.39

2.42

4+ goals

2.90

3.33

2.82

Ov 1.5

2.82

3.98

2.53

Un 1.5

2.95

3.10

2.95

Ov 2.5

2.45

6.78

2.25

Un 2.5

3.32

2.66

3.11

Ov 3.5

2.90

3.33

2.82

Un 3.5

2.85

3.78

2.60

Goal-Goal

3.32

2.70

3.05

No Goal

2.54

5.40

2.37

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.56

5.43

2.35

NG+Un 2.5

2.66

5.40

2.49


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Middlesbrough vs Norwich at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Middlesbrough and Norwich for Championship (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Middlesbrough

2.85

1.99

15.2

Draw

3.22

3.79

-4.7

Norwich

2.55

4.29

-15.9

Over 2.5

2.33

2.20

2.5

Under 2.5

1.61

1.83

-7.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Middlesbrough, Over 2.5 (15.2 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Middlesbrough in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Middlesbrough in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 1 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance at home.
Middlesbrough, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 11 points, 73.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Brentford

A

0

0

D

U

N

03 Nov

Blackburn

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Nott’m Forest

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Coventry

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Cardiff

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Oct

Bristol City

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Reading

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Oct

Barnsley

H

2

1

W

O

G


Norwich in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Norwich in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance as a guest.
Norwich, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Norwich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Swansea

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Millwall

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Oct

Bristol City

A

3

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Brentford

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Wycombe

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Birmingham

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Rotherham

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Derby

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Middlesbrough and the red line for guest team, Norwich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Middlesbrough

24%

31%

22%

23%

Norwich

39%

41%

9%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.05 goals and Norwich to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.44 goals and Norwich to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.23

1

4.61

2-3

2.12

2

4.26

4+

4.57

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.23

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.20

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

2.15

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.58

3.33

3.20

2-3 goals

1.75

3.77

6.12

4+ goals

1.92

4.76

3.71

Ov 1.5

1.80

4.04

5.07

Un 1.5

2.58

3.33

3.20

Ov 2.5

1.54

9.89

3.99

Un 2.5

2.62

2.50

4.58

Ov 3.5

1.92

4.76

3.71

Un 3.5

2.01

3.58

4.49

Goal-Goal

2.26

2.72

5.28

No Goal

1.80

5.75

3.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.65

7.39

3.86

NG+Un 2.5

2.02

5.75

3.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Wycombe vs Brentford at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wycombe and Brentford for Championship (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wycombe

6.06

3.33

13.5

Draw

4.00

3.72

1.9

Brentford

1.57

2.32

-20.6

Over 2.5

1.90

2.22

-7.6

Under 2.5

1.93

1.82

3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe, Draw, Under 2.5 (13.5 %, 1.9 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wycombe in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance at home.
Wycombe, at home, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Nott’m Forest

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Nov

Birmingham

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Sheffield Weds

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Watford

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Norwich

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Oct

Reading

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Millwall

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Luton

A

0

2

L

U

N


Brentford in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance as a guest.
Brentford, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Middlesbrough

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Nov

Swansea

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Luton

A

3

0

W

O

N

27 Oct

Norwich

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Stoke

A

2

3

L

O

G

21 Oct

Sheffield Weds

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Coventry

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Oct

Preston

H

2

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wycombe and the red line for guest team, Brentford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wycombe

41%

28%

17%

14%

Brentford

30%

29%

22%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 0.7 goals and Brentford to score 1.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the guest team Brentford to win by 1.15 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.04 goals and Brentford to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.06

0-1

3.07

1

4.95

2-3

2.21

2

4.50

4+

4.52

3

4.33

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

7.58

Un 1.5

3.07

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.42

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

1.70

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.84

2.63

2.79

2-3 goals

3.12

5.59

2.00

4+ goals

3.16

3.45

2.54

Ov 1.5

3.13

4.65

2.15

Un 1.5

3.84

2.63

2.79

Ov 2.5

2.79

7.06

2.00

Un 2.5

3.97

2.67

2.67

Ov 3.5

3.16

3.45

2.54

Un 3.5

3.39

3.80

2.26

Goal-Goal

3.44

2.85

2.79

No Goal

3.26

4.73

2.07

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.77

5.19

2.24

NG+Un 2.5

3.38

4.73

2.28


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Swansea vs Rotherham at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Swansea and Rotherham for Championship (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swansea

1.74

1.75

-0.3

Draw

3.66

4.15

-3.2

Rotherham

4.96

5.35

-1.5

Over 2.5

2.11

2.02

2.1

Under 2.5

1.75

1.98

-6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swansea in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance at home.
Swansea, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Norwich

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Nov

Brentford

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Blackburn

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Oct

Stoke

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Bristol City

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Oct

Coventry

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Huddersfield

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Millwall

H

2

1

W

O

G


Rotherham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance as a guest.
Rotherham, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Preston

H

2

1

W

O

G

04 Nov

Luton

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Stoke

A

0

1

L

U

N

28 Oct

Sheffield Weds

H

3

0

W

O

N

24 Oct

Reading

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Oct

Nott’m Forest

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Norwich

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Huddersfield

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swansea and the red line for guest team, Rotherham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swansea

18%

29%

28%

25%

Rotherham

40%

40%

12%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.6 goals and Rotherham to score 0.76 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.61 goals and Rotherham to score 0.89 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.94

1

5.41

2-3

1.95

2

3.98

4+

4.31

3

3.80

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.94

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.23

3.68

3.58

2-3 goals

1.57

4.39

7.34