Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Boreham Wood vs Altrincham at 21 November 2020
Yeovil vs Hartlepool at 21 November 2020
Wrexham vs Aldershot at 21 November 2020
Woking vs Barnet at 21 November 2020
Wealdstone vs Sutton at 21 November 2020
Maidenhead vs Bromley at 21 November 2020
King’s Lynn vs Dover Athletic at 21 November 2020
Chesterfield vs Notts County at 21 November 2020
Halifax vs Torquay at 21 November 2020
Boreham Wood vs Altrincham at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Boreham Wood and Altrincham for Conference (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Boreham Wood |
1.63 |
2.13 |
-14.4 |
|
Draw |
3.79 |
3.80 |
-0.1 |
|
Altrincham |
4.96 |
3.73 |
6.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
1.94 |
0.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.06 |
-5.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Altrincham, Over 2.5 (6.6 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Boreham Wood in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boreham Wood in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Boreham Wood’s performance at home.
Boreham Wood, at home, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Boreham Wood was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
17 Nov |
Bromley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Nov |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
10 Nov |
Dag and Red |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Woking |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Solihull |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Oct |
King’s Lynn |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Halifax |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Wrexham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Altrincham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance as a guest.
Altrincham, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
17 Nov |
Chesterfield |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
14 Nov |
Aldershot |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
11 Nov |
Solihull |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Nov |
Wealdstone |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Dover Athletic |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Hartlepool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
10 Oct |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
07 Oct |
Notts County |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boreham Wood and the red line for guest team, Altrincham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Boreham Wood |
18% |
36% |
25% |
21% |
|
Altrincham |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.72 goals and Altrincham to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Boreham Wood to win by 0.95 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boreham Wood to score 1.48 goals and Altrincham to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and the home team Boreham Wood to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
4.22 |
|
1 |
5.59 |
2-3 |
2.00 |
|
2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
3.82 |
|
3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |
|
4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
4.22 |
|
5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.07 |
|
Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.82 |
|
NoG |
2.27 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.08 |
4.09 |
3.65 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.13 |
3.88 |
3.68 |
|
4+ goals |
2.20 |
3.45 |
3.91 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.15 |
3.72 |
3.75 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.08 |
4.09 |
3.65 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
6.78 |
3.14 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.51 |
2.59 |
4.65 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.45 |
3.91 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.94 |
3.67 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.67 |
2.72 |
3.88 |
|
No Goal |
1.70 |
7.60 |
3.56 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.64 |
2.98 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.84 |
7.60 |
3.41 |
Go to Top
Yeovil vs Hartlepool at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Yeovil and Hartlepool for Conference (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Yeovil |
2.53 |
4.55 |
-17.5 |
|
Draw |
3.38 |
3.86 |
-3.7 |
|
Hartlepool |
2.56 |
1.92 |
13.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.79 |
2.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.26 |
-8.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Hartlepool, Over 2.5 (13 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Yeovil in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance at home.
Yeovil, at home, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Nov |
Woking |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Oct |
Chesterfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Sutton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Dag and Red |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
13 Oct |
Halifax |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
10 Oct |
Wrexham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Oct |
Wealdstone |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
King’s Lynn |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
Hartlepool in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance as a guest.
Hartlepool, as a guest, had 2 wins, no draws, no defeats and gathered 6 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
17 Nov |
Wrexham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Oct |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Altrincham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Oct |
Bromley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Maidenhead |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
06 Oct |
Chesterfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Aldershot |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Yeovil and the red line for guest team, Hartlepool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Yeovil |
27% |
47% |
14% |
12% |
|
Hartlepool |
14% |
32% |
29% |
25% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.28 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.1 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.65 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the guest team Hartlepool to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
26.32 |
0-1 |
5.21 |
|
1 |
6.49 |
2-3 |
1.95 |
|
2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
3.42 |
|
3 |
3.79 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.24 |
|
4 |
5.15 |
Un 1.5 |
5.21 |
|
5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.80 |
|
6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
|
Gg |
1.60 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.42 |
|
NoG |
2.67 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.87 |
5.05 |
2.21 |
|
2-3 goals |
6.51 |
3.38 |
1.82 |
|
4+ goals |
4.00 |
4.23 |
1.95 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
5.30 |
3.65 |
1.86 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.87 |
5.05 |
2.21 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
4.18 |
8.06 |
1.57 |
|
Un 2.5 |
5.14 |
2.33 |
2.66 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.00 |
4.23 |
1.95 |
|
Un 3.5 |
4.84 |
3.72 |
1.91 |
|
Goal-Goal |
5.38 |
2.82 |
2.17 |
|
No Goal |
3.63 |
9.84 |
1.61 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
4.07 |
6.84 |
1.64 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.37 |
9.84 |
1.75 |
Go to Top
Wrexham vs Aldershot at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Aldershot for Conference (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Wrexham |
1.89 |
3.41 |
-23.6 |
|
Draw |
3.54 |
3.65 |
-0.9 |
|
Aldershot |
3.77 |
2.31 |
16.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
1.97 |
2.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.74 |
2.03 |
-8.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Aldershot, Over 2.5 (16.8 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Wrexham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Wrexham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
17 Nov |
Hartlepool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Barnet |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Wealdstone |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Oct |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Yeovil |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Oct |
Solihull |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Oct |
Boreham Wood |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Aldershot in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aldershot in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Aldershot’s performance as a guest.
Aldershot, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aldershot scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Aldershot was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
17 Nov |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
14 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
07 Nov |
Notts County |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Oct |
Torquay |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Oct |
Eastleigh |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
13 Oct |
Dover Athletic |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
06 Oct |
Sutton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Hartlepool |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Aldershot.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Wrexham |
25% |
45% |
20% |
10% |
|
Aldershot |
22% |
33% |
26% |
19% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.47 goals and Aldershot to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.16 goals and Aldershot to score 1.42 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.26 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
18.18 |
0-1 |
4.24 |
|
1 |
5.52 |
2-3 |
1.97 |
|
2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
3.92 |
|
3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |
|
4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
4.24 |
|
5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
|
Gg |
1.71 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |
|
NoG |
2.42 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.36 |
4.29 |
2.91 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.90 |
3.40 |
2.22 |
|
4+ goals |
4.18 |
3.64 |
2.06 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.99 |
3.48 |
2.16 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.36 |
4.29 |
2.91 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
3.42 |
7.23 |
1.76 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.44 |
2.41 |
3.39 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.18 |
3.64 |
2.06 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.23 |
3.64 |
2.40 |
|
Goal-Goal |
4.68 |
2.67 |
2.43 |
|
No Goal |
2.49 |
7.51 |
2.15 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.49 |
6.23 |
1.81 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.40 |
7.51 |
2.37 |
Go to Top
Woking vs Barnet at 21 Nov 2020
In this section we will analyze the game between Woking and Barnet for Conference (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Woking |
2.09 |
1.96 |
3.2 |
|
Draw |
3.45 |
4.02 |
-4.1 |
|
Barnet |
3.23 |
4.15 |
-6.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.95 |
-2.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.93 |
2.05 |
-3.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Woking (3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Woking in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance at home.
Woking, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
17 Nov |
Dover Athletic |
A |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
14 Nov |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
31 Oct |
King’s Lynn |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Boreham Wood |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Oct |
Halifax |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
13 Oct |
Dag and Red |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Chesterfield |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
06 Oct |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Barnet in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnet in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance as a guest.
Barnet, as a guest, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnet was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
17 Nov |
King’s Lynn |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Nov |
Bromley |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Oct |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
13 Oct |
Weymouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Oct |
Notts County |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Oct |
Dag and Red |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Oct |
Eastleigh |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Woking and the red line for guest team, Barnet.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Woking |
22% |
27% |
26% |
25% |
|
Barnet |
35% |
37% |
19% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Woking to score 1.49 goals and Barnet to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Woking to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Woking to score 1.54 goals and Barnet to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Woking to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.94 |
|
1 |
5.68 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
3.88 |
|
3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.94 |
|
5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
|
Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |
|
NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.67 |
3.26 |
3.14 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.77 |
4.94 |
4.29 |
|
4+ goals |
1.86 |
3.58 |
5.49 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.80 |
4.37 |
4.64 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.67 |
3.26 |
3.14 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.59 |
7.12 |
4.35 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.76 |
3.94 |
|
Ov 3.5 |