2020 11 19 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Groningen vs Vitesse at 21 November 2020
Zwolle vs Utrecht at 21 November 2020
Willem II vs VVV Venlo at 21 November 2020
Waalwijk vs Heerenveen at 22 November 2020
Sparta Rotterdam vs Den Haag at 22 November 2020
For Sittard vs Feyenoord at 22 November 2020
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Emmen at 22 November 2020
Ajax vs Heracles at 22 November 2020
Twente vs PSV Eindhoven at 22 November 2020


Groningen vs Vitesse at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Groningen and Vitesse for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Groningen

2.86

3.23

-4.0

Draw

3.36

3.80

-3.4

Vitesse

2.40

2.34

1.1

Over 2.5

1.96

1.55

13.5

Under 2.5

1.86

2.82

-18.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Vitesse, Over 2.5 (1.1 %, 13.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Groningen in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Groningen in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance at home.
Groningen, at home, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Feyenoord

A

0

2

L

U

N

31 Oct

VVV Venlo

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

For Sittard

A

3

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

Utrecht

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Oct

Ajax

H

1

0

W

U

N

25 Sep

Twente

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Sep

Den Haag

A

1

0

W

U

N

13 Sep

PSV Eindhoven

H

1

3

L

O

G


Vitesse in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vitesse in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance as a guest.
Vitesse, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Vitesse scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

FC Emmen

H

3

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Willem II

A

3

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

PSV Eindhoven

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

Den Haag

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Heracles

H

3

0

W

O

N

26 Sep

Ajax

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Sep

Sparta Rotterdam

H

2

0

W

U

N

13 Sep

Waalwijk

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Groningen and the red line for guest team, Vitesse.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Groningen

21%

38%

15%

25%

Vitesse

14%

33%

27%

27%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.17 goals and Vitesse to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.45 goals and Vitesse to score 1.66 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

34.48

0-1

6.58

1

8.13

2-3

2.25

2

4.95

4+

2.48

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.18

4

4.42

Un 1.5

6.58

5

9.17

Ov 2.5

1.55

6+

14.71

Un 2.5

2.82

Gg

1.47

Ov 3.5

2.48

NoG

3.12

Un 3.5

1.68

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.87

5.24

2.17

2-3 goals

4.20

3.56

2.08

4+ goals

2.65

3.73

2.82

Ov 1.5

3.29

3.64

2.38

Un 1.5

2.87

5.24

2.17

Ov 2.5

2.73

5.98

2.15

Un 2.5

4.78

2.30

2.81

Ov 3.5

2.65

3.73

2.82

Un 3.5

3.75

3.88

2.10

Goal-Goal

3.36

2.91

2.78

No Goal

2.94

11.07

1.75

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.74

5.13

2.27

NG+Un 2.5

3.09

11.07

1.82


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Zwolle vs Utrecht at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Zwolle and Utrecht for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Zwolle

3.51

2.60

10.0

Draw

3.77

3.92

-1.0

Utrecht

1.96

2.77

-14.9

Over 2.5

1.59

1.58

0.4

Under 2.5

2.40

2.73

-5.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Zwolle, Over 2.5 (10 %, 0.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Zwolle in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance at home.
Zwolle, at home, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Nov

For Sittard

A

2

2

D

O

G

31 Oct

Twente

A

1

5

L

O

G

24 Oct

Willem II

H

0

0

D

U

N

21 Oct

Waalwijk

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

PSV Eindhoven

H

0

3

L

O

N

26 Sep

Sparta Rotterdam

H

4

0

W

O

N

19 Sep

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Sep

Feyenoord

H

0

2

L

U

N


Utrecht in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Utrecht in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance as a guest.
Utrecht, as a guest, had no wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Utrecht scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Ajax

H

0

3

L

O

N

01 Nov

Heracles

A

1

4

L

O

G

24 Oct

Twente

H

2

1

W

O

G

18 Oct

Groningen

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Oct

Heerenveen

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Sep

Waalwijk

H

3

1

W

O

G

18 Sep

VVV Venlo

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zwolle and the red line for guest team, Utrecht.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Zwolle

19%

36%

16%

29%

Utrecht

21%

29%

27%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.18 goals and Utrecht to score 1.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and the guest team Utrecht to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.55 goals and Utrecht to score 1.5 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.05 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

25.00

0-1

5.78

1

7.52

2-3

2.27

2

5.21

4+

2.59

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.21

4

4.78

Un 1.5

5.78

5

8.85

Ov 2.5

1.58

6+

15.62

Un 2.5

2.74

Gg

1.56

Ov 3.5

2.59

NoG

2.78

Un 3.5

1.63

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.22

4.32

3.15

2-3 goals

3.08

4.07

2.33

4+ goals

2.37

3.61

3.33

Ov 1.5

2.70

3.84

2.71

Un 1.5

2.22

4.32

3.15

Ov 2.5

2.33

5.93

2.49

Un 2.5

3.26

2.47

3.48

Ov 3.5

2.37

3.61

3.33

Un 3.5

2.77

4.14

2.51

Goal-Goal

3.04

2.97

2.99

No Goal

2.07

9.00

2.47

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.53

4.96

2.48

NG+Un 2.5

2.29

9.00

2.45


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Willem II vs VVV Venlo at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Willem II and VVV Venlo for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Willem II

1.63

2.44

-20.4

Draw

4.19

3.52

4.5

VVV Venlo

4.86

3.26

10.1

Over 2.5

1.59

2.06

-14.3

Under 2.5

2.40

1.94

9.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, VVV Venlo, Under 2.5 (4.5 %, 10.1 %, 9.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Willem II in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Willem II in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance at home.
Willem II, at home, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Willem II scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Oct

Vitesse

H

1

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Zwolle

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Twente

H

0

3

L

O

N

04 Oct

Feyenoord

H

1

4

L

O

G

27 Sep

FC Emmen

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Sep

Heracles

H

4

0

W

O

N

12 Sep

Heerenveen

A

0

2

L

U

N


VVV Venlo in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, VVV Venlo in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance as a guest.
VVV Venlo, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Heracles

H

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Groningen

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Ajax

H

0

13

L

O

N

17 Oct

AZ Alkmaar

A

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Den Haag

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Sep

Heerenveen

A

0

1

L

U

N

18 Sep

Utrecht

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Sep

FC Emmen

A

5

3

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Willem II and the red line for guest team, VVV Venlo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Willem II

23%

38%

17%

22%

VVV Venlo

26%

44%

19%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Willem II to score 2.07 goals and VVV Venlo to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and the home team Willem II to win by 1.15 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Willem II to score 1.37 goals and VVV Venlo to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.67

0-1

3.83

1

4.98

2-3

2.07

2

3.92

4+

3.92

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

5.88

Un 1.5

3.83

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

1.76

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.31

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.64

4.35

2.56

2-3 goals

2.75

2.90

3.43

4+ goals

1.90

4.47

3.98

Ov 1.5

2.38

3.30

3.60

Un 1.5

2.64

4.35

2.56

Ov 2.5

1.83

8.49

2.99

Un 2.5

3.58

2.27

3.56

Ov 3.5

1.90

4.47

3.98

Un 3.5

2.71

3.28

3.07

Goal-Goal

2.72

2.54

4.21

No Goal

2.16

7.20

2.51

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.92

7.04

2.97

NG+Un 2.5

2.42

7.20

2.41


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Waalwijk vs Heerenveen at 22 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Waalwijk and Heerenveen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 22 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Waalwijk

3.96

3.30

5.1

Draw

3.88

3.73

1.0

Heerenveen

1.81

2.33

-12.3

Over 2.5

1.60

1.66

-2.3

Under 2.5

2.35

2.52

-2.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Waalwijk, Draw (5.1 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases significantly, 6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Waalwijk in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance at home.
Waalwijk, at home, had no wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Sparta Rotterdam

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

A

0

3

L

O

N

25 Oct

Feyenoord

H

2

2

D

O

G

21 Oct

Zwolle

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Heracles

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Utrecht

A

1

3

L

O

G

20 Sep

Ajax

A

0

3

L

O

N

13 Sep

Vitesse

H

0

1

L

U

N


Heerenveen in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heerenveen in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heerenveen’s performance as a guest.
Heerenveen, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Heerenveen scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Heerenveen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

AZ Alkmaar

H

0

3

L

O

N

01 Nov

Sparta Rotterdam

A

4

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

FC Emmen

H

4

0

W

O

N

18 Oct

Ajax

A

1

5

L

O

G

02 Oct

Utrecht

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Sep

VVV Venlo

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Sep

For Sittard

A

3

1

W

O

G

12 Sep

Willem II

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Waalwijk and the red line for guest team, Heerenveen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Waalwijk

23%

38%

18%

21%

Heerenveen

13%

37%

27%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.06 goals and Heerenveen to score 1.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.96 goals in the game and the guest team Heerenveen to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.36 goals and Heerenveen to score 1.58 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.94 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

32.26

0-1

5.92

1

7.25

2-3

2.09

2

4.37

4+

2.82

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.20

4

4.74

Un 1.5

5.92

5

10.31

Ov 2.5

1.66

6+

21.28

Un 2.5

2.51

Gg

1.50

Ov 3.5

2.82

NoG

2.98

Un 3.5

1.55

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.31

5.45

1.94