# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Groningen vs Vitesse at 21 November 2020**** Zwolle vs Utrecht at 21 November 2020**** Willem II vs VVV Venlo at 21 November 2020**** Waalwijk vs Heerenveen at 22 November 2020**** Sparta Rotterdam vs Den Haag at 22 November 2020**** For Sittard vs Feyenoord at 22 November 2020**** AZ Alkmaar vs FC Emmen at 22 November 2020**** Ajax vs Heracles at 22 November 2020**** Twente vs PSV Eindhoven at 22 November 2020**

###
Groningen vs Vitesse at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Groningen** and **Vitesse** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Groningen |
2.86 |
3.23 |
-4.0 |

Draw |
3.36 |
3.80 |
-3.4 |

Vitesse |
2.40 |
2.34 |
1.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.55 |
13.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
2.82 |
-18.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Vitesse, Over 2.5 (1.1 %, 13.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Groningen** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Groningen** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance** at home**.

Groningen,** at home**, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
VVV Venlo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
For Sittard |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Utrecht |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Sep |
Twente |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Sep |
Den Haag |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Sep |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Vitesse** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vitesse** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Vitesse’s performance** as a guest**.

Vitesse,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Vitesse** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Vitesse was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
FC Emmen |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Den Haag |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Heracles |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

26 Sep |
Ajax |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Sep |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Sep |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Groningen** and the red line for guest team, **Vitesse. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Groningen |
21% |
38% |
15% |
25% |

Vitesse |
14% |
33% |
27% |
27% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Groningen** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Vitesse** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.15** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Groningen** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Vitesse** to score **1.66 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **3.11** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
34.48 |
0-1 |
6.58 |

1 |
8.13 |
2-3 |
2.25 |

2 |
4.95 |
4+ |
2.48 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.18 |

4 |
4.42 |
Un 1.5 |
6.58 |

5 |
9.17 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.55 |

6+ |
14.71 |
Un 2.5 |
2.82 |

Gg |
1.47 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.48 |

NoG |
3.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.68 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.87 |
5.24 |
2.17 |

2-3 goals |
4.20 |
3.56 |
2.08 |

4+ goals |
2.65 |
3.73 |
2.82 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.29 |
3.64 |
2.38 |

Un 1.5 |
2.87 |
5.24 |
2.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.73 |
5.98 |
2.15 |

Un 2.5 |
4.78 |
2.30 |
2.81 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.65 |
3.73 |
2.82 |

Un 3.5 |
3.75 |
3.88 |
2.10 |

Goal-Goal |
3.36 |
2.91 |
2.78 |

No Goal |
2.94 |
11.07 |
1.75 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.74 |
5.13 |
2.27 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.09 |
11.07 |
1.82 |

####
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###
Zwolle vs Utrecht at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Zwolle** and **Utrecht** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Zwolle |
3.51 |
2.60 |
10.0 |

Draw |
3.77 |
3.92 |
-1.0 |

Utrecht |
1.96 |
2.77 |
-14.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.58 |
0.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.40 |
2.73 |
-5.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Zwolle, Over 2.5 (10 %, 0.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** at home**.

Zwolle,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Nov |
For Sittard |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Twente |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Willem II |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Oct |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

26 Sep |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Sep |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Sep |
Feyenoord |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Utrecht** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Utrecht** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Utrecht’s performance** as a guest**.

Utrecht,** as a guest**, had no wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Utrecht scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Utrecht was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Heracles |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Twente |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Oct |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Sep |
Waalwijk |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Sep |
VVV Venlo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Zwolle** and the red line for guest team, **Utrecht. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Zwolle |
19% |
36% |
16% |
29% |

Utrecht |
21% |
29% |
27% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Utrecht** to score **1.81 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.99** goals in the game and the guest team **Utrecht ** to win by **0.63** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Utrecht** to score **1.5 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **3.05** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
25.00 |
0-1 |
5.78 |

1 |
7.52 |
2-3 |
2.27 |

2 |
5.21 |
4+ |
2.59 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.21 |

4 |
4.78 |
Un 1.5 |
5.78 |

5 |
8.85 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |

6+ |
15.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.74 |

Gg |
1.56 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.59 |

NoG |
2.78 |
Un 3.5 |
1.63 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.22 |
4.32 |
3.15 |

2-3 goals |
3.08 |
4.07 |
2.33 |

4+ goals |
2.37 |
3.61 |
3.33 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.70 |
3.84 |
2.71 |

Un 1.5 |
2.22 |
4.32 |
3.15 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
5.93 |
2.49 |

Un 2.5 |
3.26 |
2.47 |
3.48 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.37 |
3.61 |
3.33 |

Un 3.5 |
2.77 |
4.14 |
2.51 |

Goal-Goal |
3.04 |
2.97 |
2.99 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
9.00 |
2.47 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.53 |
4.96 |
2.48 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.29 |
9.00 |
2.45 |

####
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###
Willem II vs VVV Venlo at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Willem II** and **VVV Venlo** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Willem II |
1.63 |
2.44 |
-20.4 |

Draw |
4.19 |
3.52 |
4.5 |

VVV Venlo |
4.86 |
3.26 |
10.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.59 |
2.06 |
-14.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.40 |
1.94 |
9.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, VVV Venlo, Under 2.5 (4.5 %, 10.1 %, 9.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Willem II** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Willem II** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Willem II’s performance** at home**.

Willem II,** at home**, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Willem II scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Willem II was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Vitesse |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Zwolle |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Twente |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Oct |
Feyenoord |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Sep |
FC Emmen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Sep |
Heracles |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

12 Sep |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**VVV Venlo** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **VVV Venlo** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at VVV Venlo’s performance** as a guest**.

VVV Venlo,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, VVV Venlo scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of VVV Venlo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Heracles |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
13 |
L |
O |
N |

17 Oct |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Den Haag |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Heerenveen |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Sep |
Utrecht |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Sep |
FC Emmen |
A |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Willem II** and the red line for guest team, **VVV Venlo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Willem II |
23% |
38% |
17% |
22% |

VVV Venlo |
26% |
44% |
19% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Willem II** to score **2.07 ** goals and **VVV Venlo** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.99** goals in the game and the home team **Willem II ** to win by **1.15** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Willem II** to score **1.37 ** goals and **VVV Venlo** to score **1.16 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.67 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.37 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
1.76 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
2.31 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.64 |
4.35 |
2.56 |

2-3 goals |
2.75 |
2.90 |
3.43 |

4+ goals |
1.90 |
4.47 |
3.98 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.38 |
3.30 |
3.60 |

Un 1.5 |
2.64 |
4.35 |
2.56 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
8.49 |
2.99 |

Un 2.5 |
3.58 |
2.27 |
3.56 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.90 |
4.47 |
3.98 |

Un 3.5 |
2.71 |
3.28 |
3.07 |

Goal-Goal |
2.72 |
2.54 |
4.21 |

No Goal |
2.16 |
7.20 |
2.51 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
7.04 |
2.97 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.42 |
7.20 |
2.41 |

####
Go to Top

###
Waalwijk vs Heerenveen at 22 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Waalwijk** and **Heerenveen** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **22 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Waalwijk |
3.96 |
3.30 |
5.1 |

Draw |
3.88 |
3.73 |
1.0 |

Heerenveen |
1.81 |
2.33 |
-12.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.60 |
1.66 |
-2.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.35 |
2.52 |
-2.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Waalwijk, Draw (5.1 %, 1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases significantly, 6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** at home**.

Waalwijk,** at home**, had no wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Feyenoord |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

21 Oct |
Zwolle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Heracles |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Sep |
Ajax |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

13 Sep |
Vitesse |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Heerenveen** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Heerenveen** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heerenveen’s performance** as a guest**.

Heerenveen,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 7 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Heerenveen** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Heerenveen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
FC Emmen |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
Ajax |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Oct |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Sep |
VVV Venlo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Sep |
For Sittard |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Sep |
Willem II |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Waalwijk** and the red line for guest team, **Heerenveen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Waalwijk |
23% |
38% |
18% |
21% |

Heerenveen |
13% |
37% |
27% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Waalwijk** to score **1.06 ** goals and **Heerenveen** to score **1.9 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.96** goals in the game and the guest team **Heerenveen ** to win by **0.84** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Waalwijk** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Heerenveen** to score **1.58 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.94** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
32.26 |
0-1 |
5.92 |

1 |
7.25 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.37 |
4+ |
2.82 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.20 |

4 |
4.74 |
Un 1.5 |
5.92 |

5 |
10.31 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |

6+ |
21.28 |
Un 2.5 |
2.51 |

Gg |
1.50 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.82 |

NoG |
2.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.55 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.31 |
5.45 |
1.94 |