2020 11 19 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Osasuna vs Huesca at 20 November 2020
Ath Madrid vs Barcelona at 21 November 2020
Sevilla vs Celta at 21 November 2020
Villarreal vs Real Madrid at 21 November 2020
Levante vs Elche at 21 November 2020
Cadiz vs Sociedad at 22 November 2020
Alaves vs Valencia at 22 November 2020
Granada vs Valladolid at 22 November 2020
Eibar vs Getafe at 22 November 2020
Ath Bilbao vs Betis at 23 November 2020


Osasuna vs Huesca at 20 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Osasuna and Huesca for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 20 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Osasuna

2.42

1.83

13.3

Draw

3.11

4.20

-8.3

Huesca

3.24

4.65

-9.4

Over 2.5

2.35

1.92

9.5

Under 2.5

1.60

2.09

-14.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Osasuna, Over 2.5 (13.3 %, 9.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Osasuna in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Osasuna in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Osasuna’s performance at home.
Osasuna, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Osasuna scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Osasuna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Sevilla

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Ath Madrid

H

1

3

L

O

G

24 Oct

Ath Bilbao

H

1

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

Eibar

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Oct

Celta

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Levante

H

1

3

L

O

G

19 Sep

Getafe

A

0

1

L

U

N

12 Sep

Cadiz

A

2

0

W

U

N


Huesca in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huesca in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance as a guest.
Huesca, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Eibar

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Real Madrid

A

1

4

L

O

G

25 Oct

Sociedad

A

1

4

L

O

G

18 Oct

Valladolid

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Elche

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Sep

Ath Madrid

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Sep

Valencia

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Sep

Cadiz

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Osasuna and the red line for guest team, Huesca.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Osasuna

20%

24%

31%

25%

Huesca

39%

34%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Osasuna to score 1.2 goals and Huesca to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Osasuna to score 1.61 goals and Huesca to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Osasuna to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

4.17

1

6.13

2-3

1.98

2

4.17

4+

3.86

3

3.79

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.17

5

13.70

Ov 2.5

1.91

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

3.86

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.53

3.12

3.53

2-3 goals

1.56

6.00

5.25

4+ goals

2.01

3.32

4.98

Ov 1.5

1.68

4.71

5.16

Un 1.5

2.53

3.12

3.53

Ov 2.5

1.58

6.71

4.63

Un 2.5

2.22

2.98

4.66

Ov 3.5

2.01

3.32

4.98

Un 3.5

1.78

4.62

4.54

Goal-Goal

2.09

3.04

5.19

No Goal

1.63

6.62

4.21

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.73

5.24

4.31

NG+Un 2.5

1.83

6.62

3.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Ath Madrid vs Barcelona at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Ath Madrid and Barcelona for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Ath Madrid

2.92

1.81

21.0

Draw

3.50

4.15

-4.5

Barcelona

2.43

4.83

-20.4

Over 2.5

1.89

1.98

-2.4

Under 2.5

1.96

2.02

-1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Ath Madrid (21 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Ath Madrid in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Madrid in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance at home.
Ath Madrid, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Ath Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Cadiz

H

4

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Osasuna

A

3

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Betis

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Celta

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Villarreal

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Sep

Huesca

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Sep

Granada

H

6

1

W

O

G


Barcelona in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barcelona in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance as a guest.
Barcelona, as a guest, had one win, one draw, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Barcelona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Betis

H

5

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Alaves

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Real Madrid

H

1

3

L

O

G

17 Oct

Getafe

A

0

1

L

U

N

04 Oct

Sevilla

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Oct

Celta

A

3

0

W

O

N

27 Sep

Villarreal

H

4

0

W

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Ath Madrid and the red line for guest team, Barcelona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Ath Madrid

19%

30%

24%

27%

Barcelona

41%

34%

17%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.2 goals and Barcelona to score 1.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Madrid to score 1.6 goals and Barcelona to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Ath Madrid to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.80

1

5.38

2-3

2.04

2

4.35

4+

4.05

3

3.86

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.80

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.14

3.42

4.17

2-3 goals

1.67

4.89

5.04

4+ goals

1.82

3.86

5.26

Ov 1.5

1.72

4.49

5.11

Un 1.5

2.14

3.42

4.17

Ov 2.5

1.54

7.91

4.48

Un 2.5

2.22

2.79

5.24

Ov 3.5

1.82

3.86

5.26

Un 3.5

1.81

4.25

4.70

Goal-Goal

2.20

2.91

4.93

No Goal

1.56

6.77

4.74

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.74

5.91

3.90

NG+Un 2.5

1.77

6.77

4.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sevilla vs Celta at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Sevilla and Celta for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sevilla

1.75

1.71

1.3

Draw

3.55

4.29

-4.9

Celta

5.15

5.49

-1.2

Over 2.5

2.20

1.97

5.3

Under 2.5

1.69

2.03

-9.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sevilla, Over 2.5 (1.3 %, 5.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sevilla in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance at home.
Sevilla, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 7 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Osasuna

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Ath Bilbao

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Eibar

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Granada

A

0

1

L

U

N

04 Oct

Barcelona

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Oct

Levante

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Cadiz

A

3

1

W

O

G


Celta in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Celta in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Celta’s performance as a guest.
Celta, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Celta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Nov

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G

01 Nov

Sociedad

H

1

4

L

O

G

26 Oct

Levante

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Ath Madrid

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Oct

Osasuna

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Oct

Barcelona

H

0

3

L

O

N

27 Sep

Valladolid

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Sep

Valencia

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sevilla and the red line for guest team, Celta.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sevilla

19%

29%

21%

31%

Celta

44%

34%

16%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.55 goals and Celta to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.65 goals and Celta to score 0.85 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.70

1

5.29

2-3

2.05

2

4.52

4+

4.17

3

3.75

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.70

5

15.87

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

4.17

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.14

3.33

4.29

2-3 goals

1.62

4.98

5.55

4+ goals

1.54

4.53

7.74

Ov 1.5

1.59

4.82

6.12

Un 1.5

2.14

3.33

4.29

Ov 2.5

1.39

9.57

5.70

Un 2.5

2.24

2.74

5.28

Ov 3.5

1.54

4.53

7.74

Un 3.5

1.77

4.23

5.02

Goal-Goal

2.00

3.02

5.92

No Goal

1.52

6.69

5.16

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.57

6.75

4.65

NG+Un 2.5

1.79

6.69

4.23


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Villarreal vs Real Madrid at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Villarreal and Real Madrid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Villarreal

2.96

2.36

8.6

Draw

3.81

3.73

0.6

Real Madrid

2.28

3.25

-13.1

Over 2.5

1.53

2.04

-16.3

Under 2.5

2.46

1.96

10.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Villarreal, Draw, Under 2.5 (8.6 %, 0.6 %, 10.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases 4.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Villarreal in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Villarreal in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Villarreal’s performance at home.
Villarreal, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Villarreal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Getafe

A

3

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Valladolid

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Cadiz

A

0

0

D

U

N

18 Oct

Valencia

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Ath Madrid

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Sep

Alaves

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Sep

Barcelona

A

0

4

L

O

N

19 Sep

Eibar

H

2

1

W

O

G


Real Madrid in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance as a guest.
Real Madrid, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Valencia

A

1

4

L

O

G

31 Oct

Huesca

H

4

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Barcelona

A

3

1

W

O

G

17 Oct

Cadiz

H

0

1

L

U

N

04 Oct

Levante

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Sep

Valladolid

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Sep

Betis

A

3

2

W

O

G

20 Sep

Sociedad

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Villarreal and the red line for guest team, Real Madrid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Villarreal

24%

36%

21%

19%

Real Madrid

31%

35%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Villarreal to score 1.39 goals and Real Madrid to score 1.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.07 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Villarreal to score 1.36 goals and Real Madrid to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.72

1

5.13

2-3

2.07

2

4.13

4+

4.03

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.72

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.91

Ov 3.5

4.03

NoG

2.10

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.40

3.64

3.24

2-3 goals

2.37

3.83

3.15

4+ goals

2.30

3.65

3.44

Ov 1.5

2.35

3.76

3.24

Un 1.5

2.40

3.64

3.24

Ov 2.5

2.00

7.18

2.77

Un 2.5