2020 11 19 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Peterboro vs Blackpool at 21 November 2020
Wigan vs Oxford at 21 November 2020
Swindon vs Bristol Rvs at 21 November 2020
Accrington vs Lincoln at 21 November 2020
Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon at 21 November 2020
Portsmouth vs Crewe at 21 November 2020
Ipswich vs Shrewsbury at 21 November 2020
Gillingham vs Charlton at 21 November 2020
Fleetwood Town vs Plymouth at 21 November 2020
Burton vs Northampton at 21 November 2020
Doncaster vs Sunderland at 21 November 2020
Milton Keynes Dons vs Hull at 21 November 2020


Peterboro vs Blackpool at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Peterboro and Blackpool for League One (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Peterboro

1.88

1.81

2.1

Draw

3.66

3.97

-2.1

Blackpool

3.94

5.08

-5.7

Over 2.5

1.93

2.14

-5.1

Under 2.5

1.89

1.88

0.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Peterboro, Under 2.5 (2.1 %, 0.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Peterboro in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance at home.
Peterboro, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Crewe

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Nov

Bristol Rvs

A

2

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Shrewsbury

H

5

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Burton

H

2

2

D

O

G

24 Oct

Hull

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Wigan

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Oxford

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Oct

Northampton

A

2

0

W

U

N


Blackpool in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackpool in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance as a guest.
Blackpool, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Nov

Wigan

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Burton

A

2

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

AFC Wimbledon

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Charlton

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Crewe

A

1

1

D

U

G

10 Oct

Ipswich

H

1

4

L

O

G

03 Oct

Lincoln

H

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Peterboro and the red line for guest team, Blackpool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Peterboro

14%

38%

28%

20%

Blackpool

40%

36%

15%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.59 goals and Blackpool to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.54 goals and Blackpool to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

3.83

1

4.93

2-3

1.92

2

3.68

4+

4.61

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.83

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.72

4.50

5.12

2-3 goals

1.75

3.84

5.93

4+ goals

2.17

3.68

3.74

Ov 1.5

1.86

3.79

5.06

Un 1.5

1.72

4.50

5.12

Ov 2.5

1.65

7.92

3.74

Un 2.5

2.00

2.75

7.40

Ov 3.5

2.17

3.68

3.74

Un 3.5

1.74

4.04

5.63

Goal-Goal

2.52

2.62

4.52

No Goal

1.41

8.43

5.82

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.85

6.36

3.32

NG+Un 2.5

1.49

8.43

5.51


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wigan vs Oxford at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Wigan and Oxford for League One (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wigan

3.33

2.08

18.0

Draw

3.54

3.79

-1.9

Oxford

2.10

3.91

-22.0

Over 2.5

1.85

2.11

-6.7

Under 2.5

1.98

1.90

2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wigan, Under 2.5 (18 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wigan in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance at home.
Wigan, at home, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Nov

Blackpool

A

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Northampton

H

2

3

L

O

G

27 Oct

Milton Keynes Dons

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Plymouth

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Oct

Peterboro

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Charlton

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Oct

Crewe

A

0

3

L

O

N

03 Oct

Doncaster

H

1

0

W

U

N


Oxford in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oxford in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance as a guest.
Oxford, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Nov

Crewe

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Nov

Rochdale

H

3

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Fleetwood Town

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Oct

Charlton

A

0

2

L

U

N

20 Oct

Milton Keynes Dons

H

3

2

W

O

G

17 Oct

Peterboro

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Oct

Gillingham

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Sep

Accrington

A

4

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wigan and the red line for guest team, Oxford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wigan

20%

35%

26%

18%

Oxford

36%

35%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.09 goals and Oxford to score 1.52 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team Oxford to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.43 goals and Oxford to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Wigan to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.68

1

5.05

2-3

1.99

2

3.89

4+

4.39

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.68

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.39

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.16

3.68

3.78

2-3 goals

1.96

4.08

4.08

4+ goals

2.30

3.40

3.68

Ov 1.5

2.06

3.84

3.95

Un 1.5

2.16

3.68

3.78

Ov 2.5

1.83

7.06

3.22

Un 2.5

2.38

2.69

4.81

Ov 3.5

2.30

3.40

3.68

Un 3.5

2.03

3.93

3.97

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.68

4.02

No Goal

1.71

6.65

3.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

5.78

3.05

NG+Un 2.5

1.83

6.65

3.69


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Swindon vs Bristol Rvs at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Swindon and Bristol Rvs for League One (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Swindon

2.29

2.92

-9.4

Draw

3.34

3.57

-1.9

Bristol Rvs

3.09

2.65

5.4

Over 2.5

2.09

2.15

-1.3

Under 2.5

1.75

1.87

-3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol Rvs (5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Swindon in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance at home.
Swindon, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Nov

Accrington

H

0

3

L

O

N

14 Nov

Shrewsbury

A

3

3

D

O

G

03 Nov

Plymouth

A

2

4

L

O

G

31 Oct

Hull

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Northampton

A

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Sunderland

H

0

2

L

U

N

10 Oct

AFC Wimbledon

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Oct

Peterboro

A

1

3

L

O

G


Bristol Rvs in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol Rvs in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance as a guest.
Bristol Rvs, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Fleetwood Town

H

1

4

L

O

G

03 Nov

Peterboro

H

0

2

L

U

N

31 Oct

Rochdale

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Oct

Hull

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Oct

Shrewsbury

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Burton

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Oct

Lincoln

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Northampton

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swindon and the red line for guest team, Bristol Rvs.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Swindon

29%

36%

23%

12%

Bristol Rvs

24%

37%

27%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.31 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swindon to score 1.19 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.77

1

5.13

2-3

1.95

2

3.73

4+

4.52

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.77

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.14

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

4.52

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.01

3.79

2.48

2-3 goals

2.97

3.84

2.48

4+ goals

2.73

2.91

3.45

Ov 1.5

2.89

3.50

2.71

Un 1.5

3.01

3.79

2.48

Ov 2.5

2.36

6.14

2.42

Un 2.5

3.70

2.61

2.88

Ov 3.5

2.73

2.91

3.45

Un 3.5

2.98

3.82

2.48

Goal-Goal

3.23

2.57

3.33

No Goal

2.63

6.59

2.13

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.43

5.33

2.50

NG+Un 2.5

2.77

6.59

2.16


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Accrington vs Lincoln at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Accrington and Lincoln for League One (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Accrington

2.83

2.19

10.3

Draw

3.35

3.85

-3.9

Lincoln

2.44

3.52

-12.6

Over 2.5

1.89

2.00

-2.9

Under 2.5

1.93

2.00

-1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Accrington (10.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Accrington in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance at home.
Accrington, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

17 Nov

Swindon

A

3

0

W

O

N

14 Nov

Northampton

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Fleetwood Town

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Ipswich

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Oct

Rochdale

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Sep

Oxford

H

1

4

L

O

G

19 Sep

Burton

A

1

2

L

O

G


Lincoln in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance as a guest.
Lincoln, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Nov

Portsmouth

H

1

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Doncaster

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Oct

Crewe

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Ipswich

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Plymouth

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Fleetwood Town

A

0

0

D

U

N

10 Oct

Bristol Rvs

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Oct

Blackpool

A

3

2

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Accrington and the red line for guest team, Lincoln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Accrington

23%

30%

28%

19%

Lincoln

33%

36%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.21 goals and Lincoln to score 1.35 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.43 goals and Lincoln to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Accrington to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.92

1

5.56

2-3

2.03

2

4.10

4+

3.97

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.92

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.60