# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Peterboro vs Blackpool at 21 November 2020**** Wigan vs Oxford at 21 November 2020**** Swindon vs Bristol Rvs at 21 November 2020**** Accrington vs Lincoln at 21 November 2020**** Rochdale vs AFC Wimbledon at 21 November 2020**** Portsmouth vs Crewe at 21 November 2020**** Ipswich vs Shrewsbury at 21 November 2020**** Gillingham vs Charlton at 21 November 2020**** Fleetwood Town vs Plymouth at 21 November 2020**** Burton vs Northampton at 21 November 2020**** Doncaster vs Sunderland at 21 November 2020**** Milton Keynes Dons vs Hull at 21 November 2020**

###
Peterboro vs Blackpool at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Peterboro** and **Blackpool** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Peterboro |
1.88 |
1.81 |
2.1 |

Draw |
3.66 |
3.97 |
-2.1 |

Blackpool |
3.94 |
5.08 |
-5.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.93 |
2.14 |
-5.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.88 |
0.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Peterboro, Under 2.5 (2.1 %, 0.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Peterboro** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Peterboro** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance** at home**.

Peterboro,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 13 points, 86.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Nov |
Crewe |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Shrewsbury |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Burton |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Hull |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Oxford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Northampton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Blackpool** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackpool** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance** as a guest**.

Blackpool,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Burton |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Oct |
Ipswich |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Lincoln |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Peterboro** and the red line for guest team, **Blackpool. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Peterboro |
14% |
38% |
28% |
20% |

Blackpool |
40% |
36% |
15% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.59 ** goals and **Blackpool** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Peterboro ** to win by **0.66** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Blackpool** to score **0.92 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Peterboro ** to win by **0.62** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
4.93 |
2-3 |
1.92 |

2 |
3.68 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.72 |
4.50 |
5.12 |

2-3 goals |
1.75 |
3.84 |
5.93 |

4+ goals |
2.17 |
3.68 |
3.74 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.86 |
3.79 |
5.06 |

Un 1.5 |
1.72 |
4.50 |
5.12 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
7.92 |
3.74 |

Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.75 |
7.40 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.68 |
3.74 |

Un 3.5 |
1.74 |
4.04 |
5.63 |

Goal-Goal |
2.52 |
2.62 |
4.52 |

No Goal |
1.41 |
8.43 |
5.82 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
6.36 |
3.32 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.49 |
8.43 |
5.51 |

####
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###
Wigan vs Oxford at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wigan** and **Oxford** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wigan |
3.33 |
2.08 |
18.0 |

Draw |
3.54 |
3.79 |
-1.9 |

Oxford |
2.10 |
3.91 |
-22.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.11 |
-6.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.90 |
2.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wigan, Under 2.5 (18 %, 2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wigan** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wigan** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance** at home**.

Wigan,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Blackpool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Plymouth |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Charlton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Crewe |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

03 Oct |
Doncaster |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Oxford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oxford** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oxford’s performance** as a guest**.

Oxford,** as a guest**, had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oxford scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oxford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Nov |
Crewe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Rochdale |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Charlton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Accrington |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wigan** and the red line for guest team, **Oxford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wigan |
20% |
35% |
26% |
18% |

Oxford |
36% |
35% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wigan** to score **1.09 ** goals and **Oxford** to score **1.52 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and the guest team **Oxford ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wigan** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Oxford** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Wigan ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.68 |

1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.39 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.39 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.16 |
3.68 |
3.78 |

2-3 goals |
1.96 |
4.08 |
4.08 |

4+ goals |
2.30 |
3.40 |
3.68 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.06 |
3.84 |
3.95 |

Un 1.5 |
2.16 |
3.68 |
3.78 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
7.06 |
3.22 |

Un 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.69 |
4.81 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.40 |
3.68 |

Un 3.5 |
2.03 |
3.93 |
3.97 |

Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
2.68 |
4.02 |

No Goal |
1.71 |
6.65 |
3.78 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
5.78 |
3.05 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
6.65 |
3.69 |

####
Go to Top

###
Swindon vs Bristol Rvs at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Swindon** and **Bristol Rvs** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Swindon |
2.29 |
2.92 |
-9.4 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.57 |
-1.9 |

Bristol Rvs |
3.09 |
2.65 |
5.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.09 |
2.15 |
-1.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.87 |
-3.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bristol Rvs (5.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Swindon** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swindon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance** at home**.

Swindon,** at home**, had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Nov |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Shrewsbury |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Hull |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Bristol Rvs** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bristol Rvs** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance** as a guest**.

Bristol Rvs,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 8 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Nov |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Peterboro |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Rochdale |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Oct |
Hull |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Shrewsbury |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Burton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

10 Oct |
Lincoln |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Swindon** and the red line for guest team, **Bristol Rvs. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Swindon |
29% |
36% |
23% |
12% |

Bristol Rvs |
24% |
37% |
27% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Bristol Rvs** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Swindon** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Bristol Rvs** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.06** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.77 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.77 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.01 |
3.79 |
2.48 |

2-3 goals |
2.97 |
3.84 |
2.48 |

4+ goals |
2.73 |
2.91 |
3.45 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.89 |
3.50 |
2.71 |

Un 1.5 |
3.01 |
3.79 |
2.48 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
6.14 |
2.42 |

Un 2.5 |
3.70 |
2.61 |
2.88 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.73 |
2.91 |
3.45 |

Un 3.5 |
2.98 |
3.82 |
2.48 |

Goal-Goal |
3.23 |
2.57 |
3.33 |

No Goal |
2.63 |
6.59 |
2.13 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |
5.33 |
2.50 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.77 |
6.59 |
2.16 |

####
Go to Top

###
Accrington vs Lincoln at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Accrington** and **Lincoln** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Accrington |
2.83 |
2.19 |
10.3 |

Draw |
3.35 |
3.85 |
-3.9 |

Lincoln |
2.44 |
3.52 |
-12.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.00 |
-2.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.93 |
2.00 |
-1.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Accrington (10.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Accrington** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Accrington** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance** at home**.

Accrington,** at home**, had 3 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 75.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

17 Nov |
Swindon |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Nov |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Ipswich |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Sep |
Burton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Lincoln** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lincoln** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance** as a guest**.

Lincoln,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Portsmouth |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Doncaster |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Ipswich |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Blackpool |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Accrington** and the red line for guest team, **Lincoln. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Accrington |
23% |
30% |
28% |
19% |

Lincoln |
33% |
36% |
20% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Accrington** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.14** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Accrington** to score **1.43 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Accrington ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.92 |

1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.60 |