2020 11 19 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Mansfield vs Colchester at 20 November 2020
Salford vs Bradford at 21 November 2020
Tranmere vs Grimsby at 21 November 2020
Stevenage vs Bolton at 21 November 2020
Scunthorpe vs Morecambe at 21 November 2020
Newport County vs Port Vale at 21 November 2020
Leyton Orient vs Harrogate at 21 November 2020
Exeter vs Oldham at 21 November 2020
Crawley Town vs Carlisle at 21 November 2020
Cheltenham vs Walsall at 21 November 2020
Barrow vs Forest Green at 21 November 2020
Southend vs Cambridge at 21 November 2020


Mansfield vs Colchester at 20 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Mansfield and Colchester for League Two (England), which will take place on 20 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mansfield

2.31

2.58

-4.5

Draw

3.42

3.58

-1.3

Colchester

2.99

2.99

0.0

Over 2.5

1.97

2.26

-6.5

Under 2.5

1.84

1.79

1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mansfield in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mansfield in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance at home.
Mansfield, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Forest Green

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Bolton

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Oct

Barrow

H

2

4

L

O

G

24 Oct

Cheltenham

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Oct

Morecambe

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Bradford

H

1

3

L

O

G

10 Oct

Stevenage

H

0

0

D

U

N


Colchester in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance as a guest.
Colchester, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Leyton Orient

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Nov

Stevenage

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Newport County

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Harrogate

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Oct

Forest Green

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Carlisle

A

2

3

L

O

G

10 Oct

Walsall

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Oct

Oldham

H

3

3

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mansfield and the red line for guest team, Colchester.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mansfield

28%

35%

23%

14%

Colchester

31%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.35 goals and Colchester to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.23 goals and Colchester to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.36

0-1

3.34

1

4.74

2-3

2.04

2

3.86

4+

4.76

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.34

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.26

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

1.97

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.74

3.40

2.93

2-3 goals

2.45

3.90

2.98

4+ goals

2.66

3.23

3.18

Ov 1.5

2.51

3.67

3.03

Un 1.5

2.74

3.40

2.93

Ov 2.5

2.15

6.80

2.58

Un 2.5

3.07

2.61

3.44

Ov 3.5

2.66

3.23

3.18

Un 3.5

2.56

3.69

2.96

Goal-Goal

3.02

2.58

3.55

No Goal

2.25

5.76

2.61

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.25

5.65

2.64

NG+Un 2.5

2.37

5.76

2.67


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Salford vs Bradford at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Salford and Bradford for League Two (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salford

2.05

2.23

-3.9

Draw

3.49

3.75

-2.0

Bradford

3.54

3.51

0.2

Over 2.5

2.04

2.13

-2.1

Under 2.5

1.80

1.88

-2.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bradford (0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salford in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance at home.
Salford, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Nov

Bolton

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Nov

Cambridge

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Oct

Oldham

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Crawley Town

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Oct

Southend

H

3

0

W

O

N

17 Oct

Port Vale

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Oct

Tranmere

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Oct

Stevenage

A

1

0

W

U

N


Bradford in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bradford in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance as a guest.
Bradford, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bradford scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Exeter

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Nov

Southend

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Barrow

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Oct

Bolton

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Newport County

H

0

3

L

O

N

20 Oct

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Mansfield

A

3

1

W

O

G

12 Oct

Harrogate

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salford and the red line for guest team, Bradford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salford

25%

29%

30%

16%

Bradford

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salford to score 1.44 goals and Bradford to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Salford to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salford to score 1.36 goals and Bradford to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.90

0-1

3.66

1

5.29

2-3

1.98

2

3.88

4+

4.48

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.66

5

16.39

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

4.48

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.90

3.25

2.87

2-3 goals

1.91

4.76

3.77

4+ goals

2.48

2.90

3.98

Ov 1.5

2.05

3.98

3.83

Un 1.5

2.90

3.25

2.87

Ov 2.5

1.84

6.10

3.41

Un 2.5

2.74

2.79

3.61

Ov 3.5

2.48

2.90

3.98

Un 3.5

2.17

4.09

3.40

Goal-Goal

2.46

2.73

4.39

No Goal

2.04

5.96

2.93

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.94

5.12

3.46

NG+Un 2.5

2.19

5.96

2.89


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Tranmere vs Grimsby at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Tranmere and Grimsby for League Two (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tranmere

2.08

2.93

-13.9

Draw

3.34

3.72

-3.1

Grimsby

3.57

2.56

11.1

Over 2.5

2.17

2.06

2.5

Under 2.5

1.68

1.95

-8.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Grimsby, Over 2.5 (11.1 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tranmere in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tranmere in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance at home.
Tranmere, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Port Vale

A

4

3

W

O

G

03 Nov

Harrogate

A

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Morecambe

H

0

1

L

U

N

27 Oct

Crawley Town

A

0

4

L

O

N

24 Oct

Southend

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Oct

Leyton Orient

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Newport County

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Oct

Salford

A

2

2

D

O

G


Grimsby in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Grimsby in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance as a guest.
Grimsby, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Grimsby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Nov

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N

31 Oct

Stevenage

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Oct

Forest Green

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Carlisle

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Oct

Harrogate

H

1

2

L

O

G

17 Oct

Leyton Orient

A

3

2

W

O

G

13 Oct

Cheltenham

A

3

1

W

O

G

10 Oct

Bolton

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tranmere and the red line for guest team, Grimsby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tranmere

31%

30%

26%

12%

Grimsby

25%

36%

24%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.36 goals and Grimsby to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Tranmere to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.2 goals and Grimsby to score 1.29 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.80

1

5.35

2-3

2.01

2

3.98

4+

4.15

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.80

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.05

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.95

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.15

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.51

3.46

2.35

2-3 goals

2.60

4.52

2.54

4+ goals

3.21

2.94

2.87

Ov 1.5

2.77

3.84

2.64

Un 1.5

3.51

3.46

2.35

Ov 2.5

2.42

5.94

2.39

Un 2.5

3.67

2.76

2.73

Ov 3.5

3.21

2.94

2.87

Un 3.5

2.86

4.09

2.47

Goal-Goal

3.05

2.71

3.30

No Goal

2.82

6.32

2.05

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.40

5.01

2.60

NG+Un 2.5

2.89

6.32

2.15


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Stevenage vs Bolton at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Stevenage and Bolton for League Two (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stevenage

2.57

2.77

-2.8

Draw

3.25

3.70

-3.7

Bolton

2.76

2.72

0.5

Over 2.5

2.18

2.13

1.1

Under 2.5

1.70

1.88

-5.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bolton, Over 2.5 (0.5 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stevenage in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance at home.
Stevenage, at home, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Morecambe

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Nov

Colchester

A

1

3

L

O

G

31 Oct

Grimsby

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Oct

Harrogate

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Oct

Leyton Orient

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Oct

Newport County

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Oct

Forest Green

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Oct

Mansfield

A

0

0

D

U

N


Bolton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance as a guest.
Bolton, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Nov

Salford

H

2

0

W

U

N

03 Nov

Mansfield

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Leyton Orient

A

0

4

L

O

N

27 Oct

Bradford

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Cambridge

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Oct

Barrow

A

3

3

D

O

G

17 Oct

Oldham

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Oct

Grimsby

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stevenage and the red line for guest team, Bolton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stevenage

31%

29%

27%

12%

Bolton

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.18 goals and Bolton to score 1.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.21 goals and Bolton to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.58

1

5.21

2-3

2.03

2

3.98

4+

4.39

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.85

Un 1.5

3.58

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.39

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.40

3.21

2.54

2-3 goals

2.38