# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Mansfield vs Colchester at 20 November 2020**** Salford vs Bradford at 21 November 2020**** Tranmere vs Grimsby at 21 November 2020**** Stevenage vs Bolton at 21 November 2020**** Scunthorpe vs Morecambe at 21 November 2020**** Newport County vs Port Vale at 21 November 2020**** Leyton Orient vs Harrogate at 21 November 2020**** Exeter vs Oldham at 21 November 2020**** Crawley Town vs Carlisle at 21 November 2020**** Cheltenham vs Walsall at 21 November 2020**** Barrow vs Forest Green at 21 November 2020**** Southend vs Cambridge at 21 November 2020**

###
Mansfield vs Colchester at 20 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mansfield** and **Colchester** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **20 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mansfield |
2.31 |
2.58 |
-4.5 |

Draw |
3.42 |
3.58 |
-1.3 |

Colchester |
2.99 |
2.99 |
0.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.26 |
-6.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.79 |
1.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (1.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mansfield** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mansfield** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance** at home**.

Mansfield,** at home**, had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Mansfield scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Nov |
Forest Green |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Oct |
Barrow |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Oct |
Stevenage |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Colchester** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Colchester** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance** as a guest**.

Colchester,** as a guest**, had no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Colchester scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Colchester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Nov |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Stevenage |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Newport County |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Harrogate |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Oct |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Carlisle |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Oct |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Oct |
Oldham |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mansfield** and the red line for guest team, **Colchester. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mansfield |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |

Colchester |
31% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Colchester** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mansfield** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Colchester** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.36 |
0-1 |
3.34 |

1 |
4.74 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.86 |
4+ |
4.76 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.19 |
Un 1.5 |
3.34 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
2.03 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.76 |

NoG |
1.97 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.74 |
3.40 |
2.93 |

2-3 goals |
2.45 |
3.90 |
2.98 |

4+ goals |
2.66 |
3.23 |
3.18 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.51 |
3.67 |
3.03 |

Un 1.5 |
2.74 |
3.40 |
2.93 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
6.80 |
2.58 |

Un 2.5 |
3.07 |
2.61 |
3.44 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.66 |
3.23 |
3.18 |

Un 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.69 |
2.96 |

Goal-Goal |
3.02 |
2.58 |
3.55 |

No Goal |
2.25 |
5.76 |
2.61 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
5.65 |
2.64 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.37 |
5.76 |
2.67 |

####
Go to Top

###
Salford vs Bradford at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Salford** and **Bradford** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Salford |
2.05 |
2.23 |
-3.9 |

Draw |
3.49 |
3.75 |
-2.0 |

Bradford |
3.54 |
3.51 |
0.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.13 |
-2.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.80 |
1.88 |
-2.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bradford (0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Salford** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salford** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance** at home**.

Salford,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Nov |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Southend |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Oct |
Port Vale |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Tranmere |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Bradford** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bradford** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bradford’s performance** as a guest**.

Bradford,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bradford scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bradford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Nov |
Exeter |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Southend |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Oct |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Mansfield |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Oct |
Harrogate |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Salford** and the red line for guest team, **Bradford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Salford |
25% |
29% |
30% |
16% |

Bradford |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Bradford** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Salford ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Bradford** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.66 |

1 |
5.29 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.48 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.66 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.90 |
3.25 |
2.87 |

2-3 goals |
1.91 |
4.76 |
3.77 |

4+ goals |
2.48 |
2.90 |
3.98 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.05 |
3.98 |
3.83 |

Un 1.5 |
2.90 |
3.25 |
2.87 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
6.10 |
3.41 |

Un 2.5 |
2.74 |
2.79 |
3.61 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.48 |
2.90 |
3.98 |

Un 3.5 |
2.17 |
4.09 |
3.40 |

Goal-Goal |
2.46 |
2.73 |
4.39 |

No Goal |
2.04 |
5.96 |
2.93 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
5.12 |
3.46 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.19 |
5.96 |
2.89 |

####
Go to Top

###
Tranmere vs Grimsby at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Tranmere** and **Grimsby** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Tranmere |
2.08 |
2.93 |
-13.9 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.72 |
-3.1 |

Grimsby |
3.57 |
2.56 |
11.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.17 |
2.06 |
2.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.95 |
-8.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Grimsby, Over 2.5 (11.1 %, 2.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Tranmere** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tranmere** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance** at home**.

Tranmere,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Nov |
Port Vale |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Nov |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Morecambe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Southend |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Salford |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Grimsby** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Grimsby** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Grimsby’s performance** as a guest**.

Grimsby,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Grimsby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Grimsby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Nov |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Oct |
Cheltenham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

10 Oct |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Tranmere** and the red line for guest team, **Grimsby. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Tranmere |
31% |
30% |
26% |
12% |

Grimsby |
25% |
36% |
24% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Tranmere** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and the home team **Tranmere ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Tranmere** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Grimsby** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.80 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.15 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.49 |
Un 1.5 |
3.80 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.15 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.51 |
3.46 |
2.35 |

2-3 goals |
2.60 |
4.52 |
2.54 |

4+ goals |
3.21 |
2.94 |
2.87 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.77 |
3.84 |
2.64 |

Un 1.5 |
3.51 |
3.46 |
2.35 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.42 |
5.94 |
2.39 |

Un 2.5 |
3.67 |
2.76 |
2.73 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.21 |
2.94 |
2.87 |

Un 3.5 |
2.86 |
4.09 |
2.47 |

Goal-Goal |
3.05 |
2.71 |
3.30 |

No Goal |
2.82 |
6.32 |
2.05 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.40 |
5.01 |
2.60 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.89 |
6.32 |
2.15 |

####
Go to Top

###
Stevenage vs Bolton at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stevenage** and **Bolton** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stevenage |
2.57 |
2.77 |
-2.8 |

Draw |
3.25 |
3.70 |
-3.7 |

Bolton |
2.76 |
2.72 |
0.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.13 |
1.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.88 |
-5.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bolton, Over 2.5 (0.5 %, 1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stevenage** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stevenage** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance** at home**.

Stevenage,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Nov |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Nov |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Grimsby |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Oct |
Newport County |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Mansfield |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** as a guest**.

Bolton,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Nov |
Salford |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Nov |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Oct |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Oct |
Barrow |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Oct |
Oldham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Oct |
Grimsby |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stevenage** and the red line for guest team, **Bolton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stevenage |
31% |
29% |
27% |
12% |

Bolton |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.01** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.58 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.39 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.39 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.40 |
3.21 |
2.54 |

2-3 goals |
2.38 |