# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Monaco vs Paris SG at 20 November 2020**** Rennes vs Bordeaux at 20 November 2020**** Brest vs St Etienne at 21 November 2020**** Marseille vs Nice at 21 November 2020**** Dijon vs Lens at 22 November 2020**** Lille vs Lorient at 22 November 2020**** Montpellier vs Strasbourg at 22 November 2020**** Nantes vs Metz at 22 November 2020**** Reims vs Nimes at 22 November 2020**** Angers vs Lyon at 22 November 2020**

###
Monaco vs Paris SG at 20 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Monaco** and **Paris SG** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **20 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Monaco |
4.83 |
2.72 |
16.1 |

Draw |
4.81 |
3.50 |
7.8 |

Paris SG |
1.59 |
2.89 |
-28.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.35 |
2.57 |
-35.2 |

Under 2.5 |
3.18 |
1.64 |
29.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Monaco, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.1 %, 7.8 %, 29.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Monaco** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Monaco scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Monaco** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Monaco** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monaco’s performance** at home**.

Monaco,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 11 points, 73.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Monaco** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Monaco was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Nice |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Bordeaux |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Lyon |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Oct |
Montpellier |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
Brest |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Strasbourg |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Sep |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Sep |
Nantes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Paris SG** in the **last six** matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Paris SG** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance** as a guest**.

Paris SG,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 80.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Paris SG scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, ** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Rennes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Nantes |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Dijon |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Oct |
Nimes |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Oct |
Angers |
H |
6 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Sep |
Reims |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Sep |
Nice |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Sep |
Metz |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Monaco** and the red line for guest team, **Paris SG. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Monaco |
33% |
36% |
22% |
9% |

Paris SG |
37% |
36% |
7% |
20% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Monaco** to score **1.06 ** goals and **Paris SG** to score **2.5 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.56** goals in the game and the guest team **Paris SG ** to win by **1.44** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Monaco** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Paris SG** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.20 |
0-1 |
2.66 |

1 |
3.94 |
2-3 |
2.28 |

2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
5.38 |

3 |
4.90 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.60 |

4 |
8.47 |
Un 1.5 |
2.66 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.56 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.64 |

Gg |
2.36 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.38 |

NoG |
1.73 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.81 |
3.08 |
3.13 |

2-3 goals |
2.24 |
3.35 |
3.92 |

4+ goals |
4.89 |
5.64 |
1.62 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.67 |
3.81 |
2.75 |

Un 1.5 |
2.81 |
3.08 |
3.13 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.57 |
11.82 |
1.90 |

Un 2.5 |
2.83 |
2.42 |
4.30 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.89 |
5.64 |
1.62 |

Un 3.5 |
2.47 |
3.22 |
3.51 |

Goal-Goal |
3.55 |
2.58 |
3.02 |

No Goal |
2.32 |
4.74 |
2.79 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |
8.85 |
2.09 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
4.74 |
3.38 |

####
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###
Rennes vs Bordeaux at 20 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rennes** and **Bordeaux** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **20 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rennes |
1.86 |
1.99 |
-3.5 |

Draw |
3.50 |
3.85 |
-2.6 |

Bordeaux |
4.56 |
4.20 |
1.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.24 |
1.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.81 |
-5.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Bordeaux, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 1.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rennes** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rennes** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance** at home**.

Rennes,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes** scored in all of them**,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, **both teams scored in all of them.**

The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Brest |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Angers |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Oct |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Oct |
Reims |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
St Etienne |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Sep |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Sep |
Nimes |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Bordeaux** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bordeaux** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance** as a guest**.

Bordeaux,** as a guest**, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Montpellier |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Monaco |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Nimes |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Dijon |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Sep |
Nice |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Sep |
Lens |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

11 Sep |
Lyon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rennes** and the red line for guest team, **Bordeaux. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rennes |
23% |
28% |
32% |
16% |

Bordeaux |
40% |
36% |
17% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rennes** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Bordeaux** to score **0.77 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and the home team **Rennes ** to win by **0.67** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rennes** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Bordeaux** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the home team **Rennes ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
3.48 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
1.95 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
4.98 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
7.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.48 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.16 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.98 |

NoG |
1.87 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.56 |
3.12 |
3.46 |

2-3 goals |
1.68 |
5.07 |
4.83 |

4+ goals |
2.36 |
3.00 |
4.10 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.83 |
4.24 |
4.60 |

Un 1.5 |
2.56 |
3.12 |
3.46 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.70 |
6.66 |
3.84 |

Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
2.87 |
4.54 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.00 |
4.10 |

Un 3.5 |
1.92 |
4.14 |
4.23 |

Goal-Goal |
2.33 |
2.76 |
4.78 |

No Goal |
1.77 |
5.83 |
3.80 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
5.42 |
3.74 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
5.83 |
3.71 |

####
Go to Top

###
Brest vs St Etienne at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Brest** and **St Etienne** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Brest |
2.16 |
1.98 |
4.2 |

Draw |
3.64 |
3.86 |
-1.6 |

St Etienne |
3.29 |
4.20 |
-6.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.39 |
-14.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.09 |
1.72 |
10.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Brest, Under 2.5 (4.2 %, 10.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Brest** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brest** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance** at home**.

Brest,** at home**, had 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Brest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Lille |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Strasbourg |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Monaco |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Sep |
Angers |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Sep |
Lorient |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Sep |
Dijon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**St Etienne** in the **last six** matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, St Etienne scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **St Etienne** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, St Etienne scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance** as a guest**.

St Etienne,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, St Etienne scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Lyon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Montpellier |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Metz |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Nice |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Lens |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Sep |
Rennes |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Sep |
Nantes |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Sep |
Marseille |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Brest** and the red line for guest team, **St Etienne. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Brest |
25% |
27% |
35% |
14% |

St Etienne |
43% |
33% |
14% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Brest** to score **1.56 ** goals and **St Etienne** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the home team **Brest ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Brest** to score **1.37 ** goals and **St Etienne** to score **0.9 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and the home team **Brest ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.17 |
0-1 |
3.25 |

1 |
5.03 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.65 |
4+ |
5.46 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
8.47 |
Un 1.5 |
3.25 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
2.35 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.46 |

NoG |
1.74 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.68 |
2.83 |
3.67 |

2-3 goals |
1.57 |
5.73 |
5.31 |

4+ goals |
2.86 |
3.00 |
3.16 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.78 |
4.62 |
4.50 |

Un 1.5 |
2.68 |
2.83 |
3.67 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
6.87 |
3.52 |

Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.94 |
4.89 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.86 |
3.00 |
3.16 |

Un 3.5 |
1.86 |
4.13 |
4.54 |

Goal-Goal |
2.36 |
2.83 |
4.47 |

No Goal |
1.78 |
5.28 |
4.03 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
5.51 |
3.54 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
5.28 |
4.14 |

####
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###
Marseille vs Nice at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Marseille** and **Nice** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Marseille |
1.82 |
2.52 |
-15.3 |

Draw |
3.86 |
3.66 |
1.4 |

Nice |
4.39 |
3.02 |
10.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.37 |
-8.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.73 |
4.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Nice, Under 2.5 (1.4 %, 10.3 %, 4.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -5.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Marseille** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Marseille** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance** at home**.

Marseille,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Marseille scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Nov |
Strasbourg |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Lorient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Bordeaux |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Lyon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Sep |
Metz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Sep |
Lille |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Sep |
St Etienne |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Sep |
Paris SG |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Nice** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nice** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance** as a guest**.

Nice,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Monaco |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Angers |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

25 Oct |
Lille |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
St Etienne |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Nantes |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Sep |
Bordeaux |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Sep |
Paris SG |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Sep |
Montpellier |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Marseille** and the red line for guest team, **Nice. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Marseille |
30% |
31% |
29% |
9% |

Nice |
35% |
35% |
15% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **1.64 ** goals and **Nice** to score **0.86 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Marseille ** to win by **0.78** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Marseille** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Nice** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.09** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.52 |
0-1 |
3.12 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
5.10 |

3 |
4.41 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
8.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.12 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.73 |

Gg |
2.19 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.10 |

NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.88 |
3.05 |
3.08 |