2020 11 19 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Monaco vs Paris SG at 20 November 2020
Rennes vs Bordeaux at 20 November 2020
Brest vs St Etienne at 21 November 2020
Marseille vs Nice at 21 November 2020
Dijon vs Lens at 22 November 2020
Lille vs Lorient at 22 November 2020
Montpellier vs Strasbourg at 22 November 2020
Nantes vs Metz at 22 November 2020
Reims vs Nimes at 22 November 2020
Angers vs Lyon at 22 November 2020


Monaco vs Paris SG at 20 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Monaco and Paris SG for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 20 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Monaco

4.83

2.72

16.1

Draw

4.81

3.50

7.8

Paris SG

1.59

2.89

-28.3

Over 2.5

1.35

2.57

-35.2

Under 2.5

3.18

1.64

29.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Monaco, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.1 %, 7.8 %, 29.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Monaco in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monaco in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Monaco’s performance at home.
Monaco, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 11 points, 73.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Monaco scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monaco was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Nice

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Bordeaux

H

4

0

W

O

N

25 Oct

Lyon

A

1

4

L

O

G

18 Oct

Montpellier

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Brest

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Sep

Strasbourg

H

3

2

W

O

G

19 Sep

Rennes

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Sep

Nantes

H

2

1

W

O

G


Paris SG in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance as a guest.
Paris SG, as a guest, had 4 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 80.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Rennes

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Nantes

A

3

0

W

O

N

24 Oct

Dijon

H

4

0

W

O

N

16 Oct

Nimes

A

4

0

W

O

N

02 Oct

Angers

H

6

1

W

O

G

27 Sep

Reims

A

2

0

W

U

N

20 Sep

Nice

A

3

0

W

O

N

16 Sep

Metz

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Monaco and the red line for guest team, Paris SG.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Monaco

33%

36%

22%

9%

Paris SG

37%

36%

7%

20%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Monaco to score 1.06 goals and Paris SG to score 2.5 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.56 goals in the game and the guest team Paris SG to win by 1.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Monaco to score 1.07 goals and Paris SG to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.20

0-1

2.66

1

3.94

2-3

2.28

2

4.26

4+

5.38

3

4.90

Ov 1.5

1.60

4

8.47

Un 1.5

2.66

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.56

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.64

Gg

2.36

Ov 3.5

5.38

NoG

1.73

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.81

3.08

3.13

2-3 goals

2.24

3.35

3.92

4+ goals

4.89

5.64

1.62

Ov 1.5

2.67

3.81

2.75

Un 1.5

2.81

3.08

3.13

Ov 2.5

2.57

11.82

1.90

Un 2.5

2.83

2.42

4.30

Ov 3.5

4.89

5.64

1.62

Un 3.5

2.47

3.22

3.51

Goal-Goal

3.55

2.58

3.02

No Goal

2.32

4.74

2.79

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.45

8.85

2.09

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

4.74

3.38


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Rennes vs Bordeaux at 20 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Rennes and Bordeaux for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 20 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rennes

1.86

1.99

-3.5

Draw

3.50

3.85

-2.6

Bordeaux

4.56

4.20

1.9

Over 2.5

2.33

2.24

1.7

Under 2.5

1.64

1.81

-5.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bordeaux, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rennes in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rennes in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance at home.
Rennes, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in all of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, both teams scored in all of them.
The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Paris SG

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Oct

Brest

H

2

1

W

O

G

23 Oct

Angers

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Oct

Dijon

A

1

1

D

U

G

04 Oct

Reims

H

2

2

D

O

G

26 Sep

St Etienne

A

3

0

W

O

N

19 Sep

Monaco

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Sep

Nimes

A

4

2

W

O

G


Bordeaux in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bordeaux in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance as a guest.
Bordeaux, as a guest, had one win, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Montpellier

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Monaco

A

0

4

L

O

N

25 Oct

Nimes

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Marseille

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Oct

Dijon

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Sep

Nice

H

0

0

D

U

N

19 Sep

Lens

A

1

2

L

O

G

11 Sep

Lyon

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rennes and the red line for guest team, Bordeaux.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rennes

23%

28%

32%

16%

Bordeaux

40%

36%

17%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rennes to score 1.44 goals and Bordeaux to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the home team Rennes to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rennes to score 1.41 goals and Bordeaux to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Rennes to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.48

1

5.13

2-3

1.95

2

3.75

4+

4.98

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

7.41

Un 1.5

3.48

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

4.98

NoG

1.87

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.56

3.12

3.46

2-3 goals

1.68

5.07

4.83

4+ goals

2.36

3.00

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.83

4.24

4.60

Un 1.5

2.56

3.12

3.46

Ov 2.5

1.70

6.66

3.84

Un 2.5

2.32

2.87

4.54

Ov 3.5

2.36

3.00

4.10

Un 3.5

1.92

4.14

4.23

Goal-Goal

2.33

2.76

4.78

No Goal

1.77

5.83

3.80

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.82

5.42

3.74

NG+Un 2.5

1.90

5.83

3.71


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Brest vs St Etienne at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Brest and St Etienne for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Brest

2.16

1.98

4.2

Draw

3.64

3.86

-1.6

St Etienne

3.29

4.20

-6.6

Over 2.5

1.79

2.39

-14.0

Under 2.5

2.09

1.72

10.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Brest, Under 2.5 (4.2 %, 10.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Brest in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brest in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance at home.
Brest, at home, had 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Lille

H

3

2

W

O

G

31 Oct

Rennes

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Oct

Strasbourg

H

0

3

L

O

N

18 Oct

Nantes

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Oct

Monaco

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Sep

Angers

A

2

3

L

O

G

20 Sep

Lorient

H

3

2

W

O

G

13 Sep

Dijon

A

2

0

W

U

N


St Etienne in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, St Etienne in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance as a guest.
St Etienne, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Lyon

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Nov

Montpellier

H

0

1

L

U

N

25 Oct

Metz

A

0

2

L

U

N

18 Oct

Nice

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Oct

Lens

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Sep

Rennes

H

0

3

L

O

N

20 Sep

Nantes

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Sep

Marseille

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brest and the red line for guest team, St Etienne.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Brest

25%

27%

35%

14%

St Etienne

43%

33%

14%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brest to score 1.56 goals and St Etienne to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Brest to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brest to score 1.37 goals and St Etienne to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and the home team Brest to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.17

0-1

3.25

1

5.03

2-3

1.96

2

3.65

4+

5.46

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

8.47

Un 1.5

3.25

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.35

Ov 3.5

5.46

NoG

1.74

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.68

2.83

3.67

2-3 goals

1.57

5.73

5.31

4+ goals

2.86

3.00

3.16

Ov 1.5

1.78

4.62

4.50

Un 1.5

2.68

2.83

3.67

Ov 2.5

1.75

6.87

3.52

Un 2.5

2.20

2.94

4.89

Ov 3.5

2.86

3.00

3.16

Un 3.5

1.86

4.13

4.54

Goal-Goal

2.36

2.83

4.47

No Goal

1.78

5.28

4.03

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.87

5.51

3.54

NG+Un 2.5

1.86

5.28

4.14


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Marseille vs Nice at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Marseille and Nice for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Marseille

1.82

2.52

-15.3

Draw

3.86

3.66

1.4

Nice

4.39

3.02

10.3

Over 2.5

1.96

2.37

-8.8

Under 2.5

1.89

1.73

4.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Nice, Under 2.5 (1.4 %, 10.3 %, 4.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -5.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Marseille in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Marseille in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Marseille’s performance at home.
Marseille, at home, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Marseille scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Marseille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Nov

Strasbourg

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

Lorient

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Oct

Bordeaux

H

3

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Lyon

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Sep

Metz

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Sep

Lille

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Sep

St Etienne

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Sep

Paris SG

A

1

0

W

U

N


Nice in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance as a guest.
Nice, as a guest, had 3 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 10 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Monaco

H

1

2

L

O

G

01 Nov

Angers

A

3

0

W

O

N

25 Oct

Lille

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

St Etienne

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Oct

Nantes

H

2

1

W

O

G

27 Sep

Bordeaux

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Sep

Paris SG

H

0

3

L

O

N

12 Sep

Montpellier

A

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Marseille and the red line for guest team, Nice.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Marseille

30%

31%

29%

9%

Nice

35%

35%

15%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.64 goals and Nice to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 0.78 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.18 goals and Nice to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.52

0-1

3.12

1

4.65

2-3

2.06

2

3.88

4+

5.10

3

4.41

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

8.06

Un 1.5

3.12

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.36

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.73

Gg

2.19

Ov 3.5

5.10

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.88

3.05

3.08