# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Tottenham vs Man City at 21 November 2020**** Newcastle vs Chelsea at 21 November 2020**** Man United vs West Brom at 21 November 2020**** Aston Villa vs Brighton at 21 November 2020**** Sheffield United vs West Ham at 22 November 2020**** Leeds vs Arsenal at 22 November 2020**** Fulham vs Everton at 22 November 2020**** Liverpool vs Leicester at 22 November 2020**** Wolves vs Southampton at 23 November 2020**** Burnley vs Crystal Palace at 23 November 2020**

###
Tottenham vs Man City at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Tottenham** and **Man City** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Tottenham |
3.90 |
2.48 |
14.7 |

Draw |
4.03 |
3.94 |
0.6 |

Man City |
1.84 |
2.92 |
-20.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.52 |
1.85 |
-11.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.18 |
7.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Tottenham, Draw, Under 2.5 (14.7 %, 0.6 %, 7.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Tottenham** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tottenham** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tottenham’s performance** at home**.

Tottenham,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tottenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
West Brom |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Brighton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Oct |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
West Ham |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Man United |
A |
6 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Sep |
Newcastle |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Sep |
Southampton |
A |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Sep |
Everton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** as a guest**.

Man City,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Oct |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Sep |
Leicester |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Sep |
Wolves |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Tottenham** and the red line for guest team, **Man City. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Tottenham |
28% |
27% |
19% |
25% |

Man City |
28% |
34% |
22% |
17% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Tottenham** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Man City** to score **2 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.15** goals in the game and the guest team **Man City ** to win by **0.86** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Tottenham** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Man City** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.68** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
4.00 |

1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.23 |

2 |
4.81 |
4+ |
3.31 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.78 |
Un 1.5 |
4.00 |

5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |

6+ |
23.81 |
Un 2.5 |
2.18 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.31 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.33 |
3.16 |
2.60 |

2-3 goals |
2.38 |
4.93 |
2.66 |

4+ goals |
2.16 |
3.55 |
3.92 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.28 |
4.27 |
3.05 |

Un 1.5 |
3.33 |
3.16 |
2.60 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.39 |
2.97 |

Un 2.5 |
3.55 |
2.69 |
2.88 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.55 |
3.92 |

Un 3.5 |
2.65 |
4.11 |
2.64 |

Goal-Goal |
2.51 |
2.94 |
3.81 |

No Goal |
2.44 |
6.11 |
2.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
5.02 |
3.14 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
6.11 |
2.31 |

####
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###
Newcastle vs Chelsea at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newcastle** and **Chelsea** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newcastle |
6.40 |
3.57 |
12.4 |

Draw |
4.52 |
4.13 |
2.1 |

Chelsea |
1.51 |
2.09 |
-18.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.80 |
-4.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.25 |
2.25 |
0.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newcastle, Draw (12.4 %, 2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** at home**.

Newcastle,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Nov |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Everton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Man United |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Burnley |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Sep |
Tottenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Sep |
Brighton |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Sep |
West Ham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Chelsea** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chelsea** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance** as a guest**.

Chelsea,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Chelsea scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Sheffield United |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Oct |
Burnley |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Oct |
Man United |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Oct |
Crystal Palace |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

26 Sep |
West Brom |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Sep |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Sep |
Brighton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newcastle** and the red line for guest team, **Chelsea. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newcastle |
38% |
22% |
26% |
15% |

Chelsea |
19% |
30% |
26% |
24% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **0.73 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **2.12 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.86** goals in the game and the guest team **Chelsea ** to win by **1.39** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Chelsea** to score **1.55 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.72** goals in the game and the guest team **Chelsea ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
4.35 |

1 |
6.37 |
2-3 |
2.13 |

2 |
4.67 |
4+ |
3.36 |

3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.35 |

5 |
10.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
28.57 |
Un 2.5 |
2.25 |

Gg |
2.00 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.36 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
5.48 |
3.15 |
2.00 |

2-3 goals |
3.03 |
7.00 |
1.90 |

4+ goals |
3.63 |
2.95 |
2.59 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.24 |
4.57 |
2.12 |

Un 1.5 |
5.48 |
3.15 |
2.00 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.94 |
5.48 |
2.09 |

Un 2.5 |
4.88 |
3.17 |
2.08 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.63 |
2.95 |
2.59 |

Un 3.5 |
3.55 |
4.99 |
1.93 |

Goal-Goal |
3.12 |
2.98 |
2.91 |

No Goal |
4.18 |
6.81 |
1.63 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.71 |
4.29 |
2.52 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
4.14 |
6.81 |
1.77 |

####
Go to Top

###
Man United vs West Brom at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man United** and **West Brom** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man United |
1.33 |
2.15 |
-28.7 |

Draw |
5.42 |
3.61 |
9.3 |

West Brom |
9.83 |
3.88 |
15.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.64 |
2.17 |
-14.9 |

Under 2.5 |
2.30 |
1.86 |
10.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, West Brom, Under 2.5 (9.3 %, 15.6 %, 10.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man United** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man United** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance** at home**.

Man United,** at home**, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Man United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Nov |
Everton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Newcastle |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Oct |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Brighton |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Sep |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**West Brom** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Brom** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance** as a guest**.

West Brom,** as a guest**, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.

In these matches, West Brom scored in 2 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of West Brom was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Tottenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Nov |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Oct |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Oct |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Sep |
Chelsea |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Sep |
Everton |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Sep |
Leicester |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man United** and the red line for guest team, **West Brom. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man United |
20% |
45% |
9% |
26% |

West Brom |
36% |
36% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man United** to score **2.36 ** goals and **West Brom** to score **0.54 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.9** goals in the game and the home team **Man United ** to win by **1.82** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man United** to score **1.42 ** goals and **West Brom** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the home team **Man United ** to win by **0.41** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.26 |

1 |
4.24 |
2-3 |
2.18 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
4.26 |

3 |
4.41 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.26 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.26 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.86 |
4.32 |
4.32 |

2-3 goals |
2.89 |
2.78 |
3.40 |

4+ goals |
1.67 |
5.73 |
4.43 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.37 |
3.69 |

Un 1.5 |
1.86 |
4.32 |
4.32 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
11.27 |
3.02 |

Un 2.5 |
2.74 |
2.28 |
5.08 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.67 |
5.73 |
4.43 |

Un 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.25 |
3.72 |

Goal-Goal |
2.97 |
2.49 |
3.83 |

No Goal |
1.67 |
6.87 |
3.90 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
8.49 |
2.60 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.87 |
3.53 |

####
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###
Aston Villa vs Brighton at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Aston Villa** and **Brighton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Aston Villa |
2.23 |
2.25 |
-0.4 |

Draw |
3.61 |
3.75 |
-1.0 |

Brighton |
3.17 |
3.46 |
-2.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.97 |
-5.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.03 |
1.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (1.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Aston Villa** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aston Villa** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance** at home**.

Aston Villa,** at home**, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Aston Villa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Nov |
Arsenal |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Southampton |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Oct |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
Leicester |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Oct |
Liverpool |
H |
7 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Sep |
Fulham |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Sep |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Brighton** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brighton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance** as a guest**.

Brighton,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 7 results of Brighton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Nov |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Tottenham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Oct |
West Brom |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Oct |
Crystal Palace |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Oct |
Everton |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Sep |
Man United |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Sep |
Newcastle |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Sep |
Chelsea |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Aston Villa** and the red line for guest team, **Brighton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Aston Villa |
23% |
40% |
5% |
32% |

Brighton |
33% |
36% |
19% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Aston Villa** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Brighton** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the home team **Aston Villa ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Aston Villa** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Brighton** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and the home team **Aston Villa ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.46 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.31 |

2 |
4.90 |
4+ |
3.61 |

3 |
4.37 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.46 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
25.64 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.61 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.21 |
3.80 |
3.52 |

2-3 goals |
3.09 |
3.05 |
2.87 |

4+ goals |
1.60 |
5.65 |
5.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.72 |
3.45 |

Un 1.5 |
2.21 |
3.80 |
3.52 |

Ov 2.5 |