2020 11 19 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Tottenham vs Man City at 21 November 2020
Newcastle vs Chelsea at 21 November 2020
Man United vs West Brom at 21 November 2020
Aston Villa vs Brighton at 21 November 2020
Sheffield United vs West Ham at 22 November 2020
Leeds vs Arsenal at 22 November 2020
Fulham vs Everton at 22 November 2020
Liverpool vs Leicester at 22 November 2020
Wolves vs Southampton at 23 November 2020
Burnley vs Crystal Palace at 23 November 2020


Tottenham vs Man City at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Tottenham and Man City for Premier League (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Tottenham

3.90

2.48

14.7

Draw

4.03

3.94

0.6

Man City

1.84

2.92

-20.1

Over 2.5

1.52

1.85

-11.7

Under 2.5

2.62

2.18

7.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Tottenham, Draw, Under 2.5 (14.7 %, 0.6 %, 7.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Tottenham in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tottenham in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tottenham’s performance at home.
Tottenham, at home, had one win, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 5 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tottenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

West Brom

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Brighton

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Oct

Burnley

A

1

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

West Ham

H

3

3

D

O

G

04 Oct

Man United

A

6

1

W

O

G

27 Sep

Newcastle

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Sep

Southampton

A

5

2

W

O

G

13 Sep

Everton

H

0

1

L

U

N


Man City in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance as a guest.
Man City, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Liverpool

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Oct

Sheffield United

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Oct

West Ham

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Arsenal

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Oct

Leeds

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Sep

Leicester

H

2

5

L

O

G

21 Sep

Wolves

A

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tottenham and the red line for guest team, Man City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Tottenham

28%

27%

19%

25%

Man City

28%

34%

22%

17%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tottenham to score 1.14 goals and Man City to score 2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.15 goals in the game and the guest team Man City to win by 0.86 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tottenham to score 1.41 goals and Man City to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.68 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

4.00

1

5.85

2-3

2.23

2

4.81

4+

3.31

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.78

Un 1.5

4.00

5

11.49

Ov 2.5

1.84

6+

23.81

Un 2.5

2.18

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.31

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.33

3.16

2.60

2-3 goals

2.38

4.93

2.66

4+ goals

2.16

3.55

3.92

Ov 1.5

2.28

4.27

3.05

Un 1.5

3.33

3.16

2.60

Ov 2.5

1.97

6.39

2.97

Un 2.5

3.55

2.69

2.88

Ov 3.5

2.16

3.55

3.92

Un 3.5

2.65

4.11

2.64

Goal-Goal

2.51

2.94

3.81

No Goal

2.44

6.11

2.34

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

5.02

3.14

NG+Un 2.5

2.84

6.11

2.31


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Newcastle vs Chelsea at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Newcastle and Chelsea for Premier League (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newcastle

6.40

3.57

12.4

Draw

4.52

4.13

2.1

Chelsea

1.51

2.09

-18.4

Over 2.5

1.67

1.80

-4.3

Under 2.5

2.25

2.25

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Newcastle, Draw (12.4 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newcastle in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance at home.
Newcastle, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Nov

Southampton

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Nov

Everton

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Oct

Wolves

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Man United

H

1

4

L

O

G

03 Oct

Burnley

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Sep

Tottenham

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Sep

Brighton

H

0

3

L

O

N

12 Sep

West Ham

A

2

0

W

U

N


Chelsea in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chelsea in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chelsea’s performance as a guest.
Chelsea, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 8 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Chelsea scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chelsea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Sheffield United

H

4

1

W

O

G

31 Oct

Burnley

A

3

0

W

O

N

24 Oct

Man United

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Southampton

H

3

3

D

O

G

03 Oct

Crystal Palace

H

4

0

W

O

N

26 Sep

West Brom

A

3

3

D

O

G

20 Sep

Liverpool

H

0

2

L

U

N

14 Sep

Brighton

A

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newcastle and the red line for guest team, Chelsea.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newcastle

38%

22%

26%

15%

Chelsea

19%

30%

26%

24%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newcastle to score 0.73 goals and Chelsea to score 2.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.86 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 1.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.17 goals and Chelsea to score 1.55 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the guest team Chelsea to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

4.35

1

6.37

2-3

2.13

2

4.67

4+

3.36

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.35

5

10.00

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

28.57

Un 2.5

2.25

Gg

2.00

Ov 3.5

3.36

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.43

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

5.48

3.15

2.00

2-3 goals

3.03

7.00

1.90

4+ goals

3.63

2.95

2.59

Ov 1.5

3.24

4.57

2.12

Un 1.5

5.48

3.15

2.00

Ov 2.5

2.94

5.48

2.09

Un 2.5

4.88

3.17

2.08

Ov 3.5

3.63

2.95

2.59

Un 3.5

3.55

4.99

1.93

Goal-Goal

3.12

2.98

2.91

No Goal

4.18

6.81

1.63

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.71

4.29

2.52

NG+Un 2.5

4.14

6.81

1.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Man United vs West Brom at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Man United and West Brom for Premier League (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Man United

1.33

2.15

-28.7

Draw

5.42

3.61

9.3

West Brom

9.83

3.88

15.6

Over 2.5

1.64

2.17

-14.9

Under 2.5

2.30

1.86

10.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, West Brom, Under 2.5 (9.3 %, 15.6 %, 10.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Man United in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man United in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance at home.
Man United, at home, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Man United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Nov

Everton

A

3

1

W

O

G

01 Nov

Arsenal

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Oct

Chelsea

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Newcastle

A

4

1

W

O

G

04 Oct

Tottenham

H

1

6

L

O

G

26 Sep

Brighton

A

3

2

W

O

G

19 Sep

Crystal Palace

H

1

3

L

O

G


West Brom in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Brom in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance as a guest.
West Brom, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 8.3% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of West Brom was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Tottenham

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Nov

Fulham

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Oct

Brighton

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Oct

Burnley

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Oct

Southampton

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Sep

Chelsea

H

3

3

D

O

G

19 Sep

Everton

A

2

5

L

O

G

13 Sep

Leicester

H

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man United and the red line for guest team, West Brom.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Man United

20%

45%

9%

26%

West Brom

36%

36%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man United to score 2.36 goals and West Brom to score 0.54 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.9 goals in the game and the home team Man United to win by 1.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man United to score 1.42 goals and West Brom to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Man United to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.26

1

4.24

2-3

2.18

2

4.31

4+

4.26

3

4.41

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.26

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.26

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.86

4.32

4.32

2-3 goals

2.89

2.78

3.40

4+ goals

1.67

5.73

4.43

Ov 1.5

2.31

3.37

3.69

Un 1.5

1.86

4.32

4.32

Ov 2.5

1.72

11.27

3.02

Un 2.5

2.74

2.28

5.08

Ov 3.5

1.67

5.73

4.43

Un 3.5

2.36

3.25

3.72

Goal-Goal

2.97

2.49

3.83

No Goal

1.67

6.87

3.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

8.49

2.60

NG+Un 2.5

1.90

6.87

3.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Aston Villa vs Brighton at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Aston Villa and Brighton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aston Villa

2.23

2.25

-0.4

Draw

3.61

3.75

-1.0

Brighton

3.17

3.46

-2.6

Over 2.5

1.78

1.97

-5.4

Under 2.5

2.08

2.03

1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (1.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aston Villa in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance at home.
Aston Villa, at home, had 2 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Aston Villa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Nov

Arsenal

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Southampton

H

3

4

L

O

G

23 Oct

Leeds

H

0

3

L

O

N

18 Oct

Leicester

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Oct

Liverpool

H

7

2

W

O

G

28 Sep

Fulham

A

3

0

W

O

N

21 Sep

Sheffield United

H

1

0

W

U

N


Brighton in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brighton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance as a guest.
Brighton, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 7 results of Brighton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Nov

Burnley

H

0

0

D

U

N

01 Nov

Tottenham

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Oct

West Brom

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Oct

Crystal Palace

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Oct

Everton

A

2

4

L

O

G

26 Sep

Man United

H

2

3

L

O

G

20 Sep

Newcastle

A

3

0

W

O

N

14 Sep

Chelsea

H

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aston Villa and the red line for guest team, Brighton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aston Villa

23%

40%

5%

32%

Brighton

33%

36%

19%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.52 goals and Brighton to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Aston Villa to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.45 goals and Brighton to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Aston Villa to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.46

1

4.69

2-3

2.31

2

4.90

4+

3.61

3

4.37

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

5.85

Un 1.5

3.46

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

25.64

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

3.61

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.21

3.80

3.52

2-3 goals

3.09

3.05

2.87

4+ goals

1.60

5.65

5.04

Ov 1.5

2.27

3.72

3.45

Un 1.5

2.21

3.80

3.52

Ov 2.5