2020 11 19 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Espanol vs Girona at 20 November 2020
Alcorcon vs Lugo at 20 November 2020
Oviedo vs Fuenlabrada at 21 November 2020
Mirandes vs Cartagena at 21 November 2020
Malaga vs Leganes at 21 November 2020
Vallecano vs Castellon at 21 November 2020
Tenerife vs Logrones at 22 November 2020
Sabadell vs Las Palmas at 22 November 2020
Ponferradina vs Zaragoza at 22 November 2020
Mallorca vs Sp Gijon at 22 November 2020
Albacete vs Almeria at 23 November 2020


Espanol vs Girona at 20 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Espanol and Girona for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 20 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Espanol

1.51

1.71

-7.7

Draw

3.72

4.10

-2.5

Girona

7.47

5.81

3.8

Over 2.5

2.41

2.26

2.8

Under 2.5

1.57

1.79

-7.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Girona, Over 2.5 (3.8 %, 2.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Espanol in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Espanol in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Espanol’s performance at home.
Espanol, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Espanol scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Espanol was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Fuenlabrada

A

1

1

D

U

G

07 Nov

Lugo

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Nov

Malaga

A

3

0

W

O

N

28 Oct

Ponferradina

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Tenerife

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Oct

Mirandes

H

2

0

W

U

N

18 Oct

Vallecano

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Oct

Alcorcon

H

1

0

W

U

N


Girona in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Girona in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Girona’s performance as a guest.
Girona, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Girona was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Mallorca

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Nov

Las Palmas

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Nov

Zaragoza

A

2

2

D

O

G

01 Nov

Almeria

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Oct

Cartagena

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Oct

Castellon

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Oct

Lugo

A

0

3

L

O

N

18 Oct

Oviedo

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Espanol and the red line for guest team, Girona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Espanol

19%

32%

25%

24%

Girona

48%

34%

12%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.6 goals and Girona to score 0.54 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 1.06 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.54 goals and Girona to score 0.77 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.26

1

4.59

2-3

2.00

2

3.98

4+

5.21

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.26

5

22.73

Ov 2.5

2.26

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.35

Ov 3.5

5.21

NoG

1.74

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.99

3.45

4.80

2-3 goals

1.58

4.51

6.96

4+ goals

1.73

4.36

5.19

Ov 1.5

1.62

4.47

6.36

Un 1.5

1.99

3.45

4.80

Ov 2.5

1.42

10.05

5.08

Un 2.5

2.05

2.79

6.49

Ov 3.5

1.73

4.36

5.19

Un 3.5

1.71

4.04

5.94

Goal-Goal

2.17

2.75

5.68

No Goal

1.48

6.45

5.86

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.61

7.16

4.20

NG+Un 2.5

1.64

6.45

5.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Alcorcon vs Lugo at 20 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Alcorcon and Lugo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 20 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Alcorcon

2.77

2.93

-2.0

Draw

2.84

3.50

-6.6

Lugo

2.83

2.68

2.0

Over 2.5

2.89

2.39

7.2

Under 2.5

1.39

1.72

-13.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lugo, Over 2.5 (2 %, 7.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Alcorcon in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alcorcon in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Alcorcon’s performance at home.
Alcorcon, at home, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alcorcon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Nov

Leganes

A

0

1

L

U

N

08 Nov

Fuenlabrada

H

0

3

L

O

N

05 Nov

Ponferradina

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Nov

Logrones

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Oct

Sp Gijon

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Oct

Mallorca

H

0

2

L

U

N

10 Oct

Espanol

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Oct

Zaragoza

H

0

0

D

U

N


Lugo in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lugo in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance as a guest.
Lugo, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lugo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Albacete

H

1

0

W

U

N

07 Nov

Espanol

A

1

2

L

O

G

01 Nov

Vallecano

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Oct

Tenerife

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Oct

Logrones

A

3

2

W

O

G

21 Oct

Girona

H

3

0

W

O

N

17 Oct

Castellon

A

1

0

W

U

N

11 Oct

Mallorca

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Alcorcon and the red line for guest team, Lugo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Alcorcon

30%

39%

22%

9%

Lugo

31%

33%

25%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Alcorcon to score 0.95 goals and Lugo to score 0.93 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.88 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Alcorcon to score 1.1 goals and Lugo to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.87

0-1

3.24

1

4.61

2-3

1.98

2

3.68

4+

5.38

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.75

Un 1.5

3.24

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

5.38

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.58

3.36

3.19

2-3 goals

2.98

3.97

2.42

4+ goals

3.65

2.78

2.74

Ov 1.5

3.14

3.56

2.50

Un 1.5

2.58

3.36

3.19

Ov 2.5

2.77

6.24

2.09

Un 2.5

3.07

2.65

3.36

Ov 3.5

3.65

2.78

2.74

Un 3.5

2.81

3.71

2.67

Goal-Goal

3.91

2.50

2.90

No Goal

2.38

5.59

2.50

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.89

5.34

2.14

NG+Un 2.5

2.40

5.59

2.62


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Oviedo vs Fuenlabrada at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Oviedo and Fuenlabrada for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Oviedo

2.27

2.21

1.2

Draw

2.87

3.61

-7.1

Fuenlabrada

3.60

3.70

-0.8

Over 2.5

2.67

2.33

5.5

Under 2.5

1.48

1.75

-10.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Oviedo, Over 2.5 (1.2 %, 5.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Oviedo in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oviedo in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance at home.
Oviedo, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Nov

Zaragoza

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Nov

Castellon

H

4

0

W

O

N

31 Oct

Las Palmas

A

2

1

W

O

G

28 Oct

Logrones

H

2

3

L

O

G

25 Oct

Leganes

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Oct

Vallecano

H

0

0

D

U

N

18 Oct

Girona

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Oct

Sp Gijon

H

1

0

W

U

N


Fuenlabrada in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fuenlabrada in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance as a guest.
Fuenlabrada, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Espanol

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Nov

Alcorcon

A

3

0

W

O

N

01 Nov

Tenerife

H

1

1

D

U

G

29 Oct

Vallecano

A

0

2

L

U

N

24 Oct

Almeria

A

0

3

L

O

N

21 Oct

Logrones

H

0

0

D

U

N

17 Oct

Cartagena

A

1

1

D

U

G

11 Oct

Castellon

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oviedo and the red line for guest team, Fuenlabrada.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Oviedo

24%

35%

25%

15%

Fuenlabrada

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.15 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 0.85 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oviedo to score 1.32 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Oviedo to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.24

0-1

3.27

1

4.61

2-3

1.99

2

3.75

4+

5.15

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.27

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

5.15

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.44

3.36

2-3 goals

2.08

3.90

3.81

4+ goals

2.26

3.23

4.04

Ov 1.5

2.12

3.69

3.87

Un 1.5

2.43

3.44

3.36

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.17

3.21

Un 2.5

2.63

2.63

4.18

Ov 3.5

2.26

3.23

4.04

Un 3.5

2.20

3.71

3.63

Goal-Goal

2.68

2.56

4.24

No Goal

1.90

5.84

3.31

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.97

5.90

3.11

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

5.84

3.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Mirandes vs Cartagena at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between Mirandes and Cartagena for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 21 Nov 2020.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Mirandes

2.55

2.32

3.9

Draw

2.95

3.55

-5.7

Cartagena

3.10

3.48

-3.5

Over 2.5

2.52

2.40

2.0

Under 2.5

1.54

1.72

-6.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Mirandes, Over 2.5 (3.9 %, 2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 1%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Mirandes in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mirandes in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance at home.
Mirandes, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

14 Nov

Almeria

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Sp Gijon

H

1

0

W

U

N

01 Nov

Leganes

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Oct

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N

25 Oct

Malaga

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Oct

Espanol

A

0

2

L

U

N

18 Oct

Mallorca

H

0

0

D

U

N

10 Oct

Sabadell

A

2

0

W

U

N


Cartagena in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cartagena in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance as a guest.
Cartagena, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

15 Nov

Castellon

A

1

2

L

O

G

07 Nov

Logrones

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Oct

Albacete

H

3

1

W

O

G

27 Oct

Girona

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Oct

Las Palmas

H

3

0

W

O

N

21 Oct

Almeria

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Oct

Fuenlabrada

H

1

1

D

U

G

11 Oct

Ponferradina

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mirandes and the red line for guest team, Cartagena.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Mirandes

26%

35%

25%

14%

Cartagena

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mirandes to score 1.11 goals and Cartagena to score 0.97 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mirandes to score 1.26 goals and Cartagena to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.17

1

4.50

2-3

2.01

2

3.73

4+

5.32

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

7.81

Un 1.5

3.17

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.10

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.90

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals