# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Espanol vs Girona at 20 November 2020**** Alcorcon vs Lugo at 20 November 2020**** Oviedo vs Fuenlabrada at 21 November 2020**** Mirandes vs Cartagena at 21 November 2020**** Malaga vs Leganes at 21 November 2020**** Vallecano vs Castellon at 21 November 2020**** Tenerife vs Logrones at 22 November 2020**** Sabadell vs Las Palmas at 22 November 2020**** Ponferradina vs Zaragoza at 22 November 2020**** Mallorca vs Sp Gijon at 22 November 2020**** Albacete vs Almeria at 23 November 2020**

###
Espanol vs Girona at 20 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Espanol** and **Girona** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **20 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Espanol |
1.51 |
1.71 |
-7.7 |

Draw |
3.72 |
4.10 |
-2.5 |

Girona |
7.47 |
5.81 |
3.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.26 |
2.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
1.79 |
-7.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Girona, Over 2.5 (3.8 %, 2.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Espanol** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Espanol scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Espanol** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Espanol** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Espanol’s performance** at home**.

Espanol,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Espanol scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Espanol was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Nov |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

07 Nov |
Lugo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Nov |
Malaga |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

28 Oct |
Ponferradina |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Tenerife |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Oct |
Mirandes |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Vallecano |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Girona** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Girona scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Girona** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Girona scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Girona’s performance** as a guest**.

Girona,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Girona scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Girona was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Nov |
Mallorca |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Nov |
Las Palmas |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Nov |
Zaragoza |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Oct |
Cartagena |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Oct |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Oct |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Espanol** and the red line for guest team, **Girona. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Espanol |
19% |
32% |
25% |
24% |

Girona |
48% |
34% |
12% |
6% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Espanol** to score **1.6 ** goals and **Girona** to score **0.54 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.14** goals in the game and the home team **Espanol ** to win by **1.06** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Espanol** to score **1.54 ** goals and **Girona** to score **0.77 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the home team **Espanol ** to win by **0.77** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.24 |
0-1 |
3.26 |

1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
5.21 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
7.52 |
Un 1.5 |
3.26 |

5 |
22.73 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
2.35 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.21 |

NoG |
1.74 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.99 |
3.45 |
4.80 |

2-3 goals |
1.58 |
4.51 |
6.96 |

4+ goals |
1.73 |
4.36 |
5.19 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.62 |
4.47 |
6.36 |

Un 1.5 |
1.99 |
3.45 |
4.80 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.42 |
10.05 |
5.08 |

Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
2.79 |
6.49 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.73 |
4.36 |
5.19 |

Un 3.5 |
1.71 |
4.04 |
5.94 |

Goal-Goal |
2.17 |
2.75 |
5.68 |

No Goal |
1.48 |
6.45 |
5.86 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.61 |
7.16 |
4.20 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.64 |
6.45 |
5.20 |

####
Go to Top

###
Alcorcon vs Lugo at 20 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Alcorcon** and **Lugo** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **20 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Alcorcon |
2.77 |
2.93 |
-2.0 |

Draw |
2.84 |
3.50 |
-6.6 |

Lugo |
2.83 |
2.68 |
2.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.89 |
2.39 |
7.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.39 |
1.72 |
-13.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Lugo, Over 2.5 (2 %, 7.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Alcorcon** in the **last six** matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Alcorcon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Alcorcon** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Alcorcon’s performance** at home**.

Alcorcon,** at home**, had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Alcorcon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Alcorcon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Nov |
Leganes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Nov |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

05 Nov |
Ponferradina |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Nov |
Logrones |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Oct |
Sp Gijon |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Oct |
Mallorca |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Espanol |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Oct |
Zaragoza |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Lugo** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lugo** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lugo’s performance** as a guest**.

Lugo,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Lugo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lugo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Nov |
Albacete |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

07 Nov |
Espanol |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Nov |
Vallecano |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Oct |
Tenerife |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Oct |
Logrones |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Oct |
Girona |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Oct |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Oct |
Mallorca |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Alcorcon** and the red line for guest team, **Lugo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Alcorcon |
30% |
39% |
22% |
9% |

Lugo |
31% |
33% |
25% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Alcorcon** to score **0.95 ** goals and **Lugo** to score **0.93 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **1.88** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Alcorcon** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Lugo** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.87 |
0-1 |
3.24 |

1 |
4.61 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.68 |
4+ |
5.38 |

3 |
4.31 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
7.75 |
Un 1.5 |
3.24 |

5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |

6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
2.06 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.38 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.58 |
3.36 |
3.19 |

2-3 goals |
2.98 |
3.97 |
2.42 |

4+ goals |
3.65 |
2.78 |
2.74 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.14 |
3.56 |
2.50 |

Un 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.36 |
3.19 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.77 |
6.24 |
2.09 |

Un 2.5 |
3.07 |
2.65 |
3.36 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.65 |
2.78 |
2.74 |

Un 3.5 |
2.81 |
3.71 |
2.67 |

Goal-Goal |
3.91 |
2.50 |
2.90 |

No Goal |
2.38 |
5.59 |
2.50 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.89 |
5.34 |
2.14 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.40 |
5.59 |
2.62 |

####
Go to Top

###
Oviedo vs Fuenlabrada at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Oviedo** and **Fuenlabrada** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Oviedo |
2.27 |
2.21 |
1.2 |

Draw |
2.87 |
3.61 |
-7.1 |

Fuenlabrada |
3.60 |
3.70 |
-0.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.67 |
2.33 |
5.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.48 |
1.75 |
-10.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Oviedo, Over 2.5 (1.2 %, 5.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Oviedo** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Oviedo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oviedo** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Oviedo** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance** at home**.

Oviedo,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oviedo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Nov |
Zaragoza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Nov |
Castellon |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Oct |
Las Palmas |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Oct |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

25 Oct |
Leganes |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Oct |
Vallecano |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Girona |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

11 Oct |
Sp Gijon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Fuenlabrada** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fuenlabrada** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance** as a guest**.

Fuenlabrada,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Nov |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Nov |
Alcorcon |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

01 Nov |
Tenerife |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Oct |
Vallecano |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Oct |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

21 Oct |
Logrones |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Oct |
Cartagena |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Oct |
Castellon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Oviedo** and the red line for guest team, **Fuenlabrada. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Oviedo |
24% |
35% |
25% |
15% |

Fuenlabrada |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Oviedo** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Fuenlabrada** to score **0.85 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Oviedo** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Fuenlabrada** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the home team **Oviedo ** to win by **0.33** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.24 |
0-1 |
3.27 |

1 |
4.61 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
5.15 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.52 |
Un 1.5 |
3.27 |

5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.75 |

Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.15 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.44 |
3.36 |

2-3 goals |
2.08 |
3.90 |
3.81 |

4+ goals |
2.26 |
3.23 |
4.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.12 |
3.69 |
3.87 |

Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.44 |
3.36 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
7.17 |
3.21 |

Un 2.5 |
2.63 |
2.63 |
4.18 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.23 |
4.04 |

Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.71 |
3.63 |

Goal-Goal |
2.68 |
2.56 |
4.24 |

No Goal |
1.90 |
5.84 |
3.31 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
5.90 |
3.11 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.84 |
3.24 |

####
Go to Top

###
Mirandes vs Cartagena at 21 Nov 2020

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mirandes** and **Cartagena** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **21 Nov 2020.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mirandes |
2.55 |
2.32 |
3.9 |

Draw |
2.95 |
3.55 |
-5.7 |

Cartagena |
3.10 |
3.48 |
-3.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.40 |
2.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.54 |
1.72 |
-6.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Mirandes, Over 2.5 (3.9 %, 2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 1%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mirandes** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mirandes** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance** at home**.

Mirandes,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

14 Nov |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Sp Gijon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Nov |
Leganes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Oct |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Oct |
Malaga |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Oct |
Espanol |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Oct |
Mallorca |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Oct |
Sabadell |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Cartagena** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Cartagena scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cartagena** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Cartagena scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance** as a guest**.

Cartagena,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cartagena scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

15 Nov |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Nov |
Logrones |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Oct |
Albacete |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Oct |
Girona |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Oct |
Las Palmas |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

21 Oct |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Oct |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

11 Oct |
Ponferradina |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mirandes** and the red line for guest team, **Cartagena. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mirandes |
26% |
35% |
25% |
14% |

Cartagena |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mirandes** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Cartagena** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.09** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mirandes** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Cartagena** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.75 |
0-1 |
3.17 |

1 |
4.50 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
5.32 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
7.81 |
Un 1.5 |
3.17 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
2.10 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.32 |

NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |